LA Angels' Bourjos Could Be Difference Maker

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Bourjos could be difference-maker

L.A.'s outfielder could be MLB's best defender, but he needs to hit to stay on the field


By Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
ESPN Insider
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On August 1 of last season, the Los Angeles Angels promoted Peter Bourjos to the majors. Mike Scioscia promptly inserted Bourjos into the starting lineup in center field, shifting nine-time Gold Glove recipient Torii Hunter from the only position he has known for the past decade.


It didn't take long, however, for Bourjos to justify the decision. In his second game, he threw out Luke Scott trying to go from first to third on a single. By the end of the week, he was making his way onto highlight reels, and within a month he was a regular on Web Gems lists.


During his two months in the majors, Bourjos saved an estimated 15 runs with his defense, according to Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) and the Runs Saved system. This total ranked third among all center fielders last season, despite the fact that Bourjos didn't even play a third of a season.

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Run savers

The runs saved leaders among center fielders for the 2010 season:
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Center Fielder</TH><TH>Games</TH><TH>Innings</TH><TH>Runs Saved</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Austin Jackson</TD><TD>149</TD><TD>1256</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Michael Bourn</TD><TD>138</TD><TD>1189</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Peter Bourjos</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>450</TD><TD>15</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Franklin Gutierrez</TD><TD>146</TD><TD>1277</TD><TD>14</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Alex Rios</TD><TD>143</TD><TD>1247</TD><TD>12</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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He also made 24 Good Fielding Plays (GFP) as tracked by BIS Video Scouts, meaning he made two dozen Web Gem-type plays that you wouldn't expect an average fielder to make. That number easily led all outfielders from August 1 on. Included in those 24 GFP are two home run robberies, in which he snatched a home run from over the outfield fence and turned it into a fly out.


Bourjos did it all last year. He rated well on deep-hit balls, and he also made diving plays on shallow line drives in front of him. He accumulated 10 outfield assists in those two months; the full-season league leader, Adam Jones with 12, had a four-month head start.


This defensive prowess is why Bourjos can be a real difference-maker for the Angels this season, as he has the potential to be the best defensive player the league has seen in several years. But whether he can hit well enough will ultimately determine whether the team can keep him and his runs-saving defensive ability on the field.


<OFFER>Bourjos is the centerpiece of a very formidable Angels outfield. Following Angels GM Tony Reagins' trade for three-time All Star center fielder Vernon Wells, L.A.'s outfield now has a combined 12 Gold Gloves.


The downside to this is that Hunter and Wells have been shadows of their former selves defensively. As discussed in August, Hunter's decline has been gradual, while Wells experienced a sudden drop-off after his three mid-decade Gold Glove seasons.


Thanks to Bourjos' arrival, Hunter and Wells are able to make much-needed shifts to the outfield corners. Though neither has a true right fielder's arm, we've projected both around the league average for their positions (Wells at 0 runs saved in left, Hunter at 1 run saved in right).


We've very conservatively projected Bourjos for 11 runs saved in center field, but the upside here is much greater. Even before he reached the majors, scouts raved about Bourjos' "game-changing" defense, and now that he's reached the majors the more objective numbers completely agree. His 15 runs saved last year in two months extrapolates to 45 runs saved over a full season, which would comfortably demolish every defensive record in the eight-year history of our runs saved system.


Adam Everett saved an estimated 34 runs for the Astros in 2006, the top defensive season we've recorded. Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs translates to a full win in the standings, we'd say that Everett improved the team by three wins solely with his defense at shortstop. Chase Utley's 2008 season ranks second and underscores the value he brings to the Phillies.

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The best defense

The top individual defensive seasons at any position from 2003-10:
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Season</TH><TH>Position</TH><TH>Runs Saved</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Adam Everett</TD><TD>2006</TD><TD>SS</TD><TD>34</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chase Utley</TD><TD>2008</TD><TD>2B</TD><TD>33</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Franklin Gutierrez</TD><TD>2009</TD><TD>CF</TD><TD>32</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chone Figgins</TD><TD>2009</TD><TD>3B</TD><TD>31</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Troy Tulowitzki</TD><TD>2007</TD><TD>SS</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ichiro Suzuki</TD><TD>2004</TD><TD>RF</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Albert Pujols</TD><TD>2007</TD><TD>1B</TD><TD>29</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Scott Rolen</TD><TD>2004</TD><TD>3B</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jack Wilson</TD><TD>2005</TD><TD>SS</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Craig Counsell</TD><TD>2005</TD><TD>2B</TD><TD>28</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Where will Bourjos' 2011 season rank when all is said and done? Oddly enough, it depends almost entirely on his bat.


Bourjos looked overmatched at the plate last year, hitting .204 with a measly .237 on-base percentage in 193 plate appearances. In particular, his plate discipline was lacking, as he struck out 40 times and drew only six walks. He did flash some extra-base power, with six doubles, six homers and four triples out of his 37 hits; however, his .618 OPS was well below the league average.


While his minor league numbers suggest he's a better hitter than his Angels record indicates, how well does Bourjos have to hit to stay in the lineup if he continues his torrid defensive pace? If he gets off to a slow start at the plate, Scioscia may be forced to pull him out of the lineup and shift one of his former Gold Glovers back to center.


If Bourjos comes close to his minor league numbers and maintains his defensive performance, he'll provide plenty of value to a contending team. Players such as Everett and Franklin Gutierrez don't bring much to the batting order, but they've forged productive major league careers as elite defenders.


Only time will tell, but Thursday's season opener gave reason to be optimistic. Bourjos scraped together two hits, including one bunt after which he wound up on third base thanks to his speed and two Royals overthrows.


If that kind of offensive production continues for Bourjos, he'll have the opportunity to put together a defensive season better than any we've seen in quite some time.
 

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