Yesterday 1 0 0 +2.72 Units
Last 30 Days 2 5 0 -3.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 2 5 0 -3.90 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Atlanta –102 over MILWAUKEE
2:00 PM EST. Brandon Beachy earned a spot in the Atlanta rotation and with good reason. He's had a fantastic spring in which he threw 20 frames and allowed just 12 hits and two runs for an ERA of 0.90. The youngster has outstanding command and in those 20 spring innings he whiffed 21 and walked four. He became a top prospect last season after posting a 148/28 K/BB in the high minors. Beachy will face a Brewers team that has opened the year 0-3 while hitting a paltry .223 at Great American Ballpark. By contrast, Cincinnati hit a robust .350 against Milwaukee pitching. The Brewers have never seen Beachy and that works to his advantage. Chris Narverson had an inconsistent 2010 season. He has upside but once again it appears as though the Brewers pen is a mess and that puts a whole lot of pressure on these young starters. Narverson finished '10 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In April last year, Narverson posted an ERA of 6.60 and he would’ve been the teams fifth starter had Zack Greinke not been injured. As it stands now he’s #4 in the rotation and all the pressure in the world will be on him to get the Brewers their first win in front of a sellout crowd in Milwaukee. Beachy could dominate, Narverson won’t and chances are the Brew Crew will have to wait until another day to earn its first ‘W’. Play Atlanta –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +136 over Minnesota
The Twins turn into the Bad News Bears every time they play in New York. The Yanks have won all four postseason series between the teams since 2003, and last year’s sweep extended its playoff winning-streak over the Twins to nine games. Over the past two regular seasons the Twins have dropped 11 of 13 to the Yankees in New York. The Twinkies dropped two of three in Toronto on the weekend and hit a combined .198 while scoring eight times. The Yanks scored 23 runs in three games at home against the Tigers. With a mid-40s fly-ball% rate and high hr per 9 innings over the past two years, Minnesota’s Scott Baker could be in for a long night. The Yanks have torched Baker at Yankee Stadium over the years and this Yankee line-up is lethal. Ivan Nova might be overvalued given his strong spring. Most of his skills last year with New York were middling at best. That said, he’ll win games because he pitches for the Yanks and his strong 53% ground-ball rate limits his downside. This has little to do with backing Nova and more to do with the Yankees being inside Minnesota’s kitchen. Play: New York Yankees –1½ +136 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +116 over BALTIMORE
3:05 PM EST. Losing two of three in New York to open the year is nothing to be dejected about and winning yesterday has the Tigers feeling pretty good coming into this series. The Tigers still scored 19 runs in the three-game set and batted a combined .283. The O’s are feeling great after a sweep in Tampa but the Rays hit .132 in the three-games and that’s the main reason the O’s are 3-0. Baltimore hit just .222 in the series. Enter Jake Arrieta to pitch the Orioles home opener. This guy is so risky as the chalk and should be avoided because of a 6-6 record and 4.66 ERA in 100 IP for Baltimore last year. Arrieta struggled to adjust to the Majors and couldn't get lefties out. Also, he's trying to rehab a sore elbow instead of having surgery. Does that ever work? Rick Porcello started to figure things out in the second half last year. He had very good numbers, good command and a strong groundball profile. The dominance is still not there but at age 22, he's got both time and the pedigree to develop into more than a sinkerball pitcher. When his light turns on, it could happen fast and surely he’s not the second best starter in this matchup. Play: Detroit +116 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 2 5 0 -3.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 2 5 0 -3.90 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Atlanta –102 over MILWAUKEE
2:00 PM EST. Brandon Beachy earned a spot in the Atlanta rotation and with good reason. He's had a fantastic spring in which he threw 20 frames and allowed just 12 hits and two runs for an ERA of 0.90. The youngster has outstanding command and in those 20 spring innings he whiffed 21 and walked four. He became a top prospect last season after posting a 148/28 K/BB in the high minors. Beachy will face a Brewers team that has opened the year 0-3 while hitting a paltry .223 at Great American Ballpark. By contrast, Cincinnati hit a robust .350 against Milwaukee pitching. The Brewers have never seen Beachy and that works to his advantage. Chris Narverson had an inconsistent 2010 season. He has upside but once again it appears as though the Brewers pen is a mess and that puts a whole lot of pressure on these young starters. Narverson finished '10 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In April last year, Narverson posted an ERA of 6.60 and he would’ve been the teams fifth starter had Zack Greinke not been injured. As it stands now he’s #4 in the rotation and all the pressure in the world will be on him to get the Brewers their first win in front of a sellout crowd in Milwaukee. Beachy could dominate, Narverson won’t and chances are the Brew Crew will have to wait until another day to earn its first ‘W’. Play Atlanta –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +136 over Minnesota
The Twins turn into the Bad News Bears every time they play in New York. The Yanks have won all four postseason series between the teams since 2003, and last year’s sweep extended its playoff winning-streak over the Twins to nine games. Over the past two regular seasons the Twins have dropped 11 of 13 to the Yankees in New York. The Twinkies dropped two of three in Toronto on the weekend and hit a combined .198 while scoring eight times. The Yanks scored 23 runs in three games at home against the Tigers. With a mid-40s fly-ball% rate and high hr per 9 innings over the past two years, Minnesota’s Scott Baker could be in for a long night. The Yanks have torched Baker at Yankee Stadium over the years and this Yankee line-up is lethal. Ivan Nova might be overvalued given his strong spring. Most of his skills last year with New York were middling at best. That said, he’ll win games because he pitches for the Yanks and his strong 53% ground-ball rate limits his downside. This has little to do with backing Nova and more to do with the Yankees being inside Minnesota’s kitchen. Play: New York Yankees –1½ +136 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +116 over BALTIMORE
3:05 PM EST. Losing two of three in New York to open the year is nothing to be dejected about and winning yesterday has the Tigers feeling pretty good coming into this series. The Tigers still scored 19 runs in the three-game set and batted a combined .283. The O’s are feeling great after a sweep in Tampa but the Rays hit .132 in the three-games and that’s the main reason the O’s are 3-0. Baltimore hit just .222 in the series. Enter Jake Arrieta to pitch the Orioles home opener. This guy is so risky as the chalk and should be avoided because of a 6-6 record and 4.66 ERA in 100 IP for Baltimore last year. Arrieta struggled to adjust to the Majors and couldn't get lefties out. Also, he's trying to rehab a sore elbow instead of having surgery. Does that ever work? Rick Porcello started to figure things out in the second half last year. He had very good numbers, good command and a strong groundball profile. The dominance is still not there but at age 22, he's got both time and the pedigree to develop into more than a sinkerball pitcher. When his light turns on, it could happen fast and surely he’s not the second best starter in this matchup. Play: Detroit +116 (Risking 2 units).
