2* New York Mets (+174)
By now most should know that I'm a big fan of playing dogs when there's a huge overlay, and today in Philly we certainely got one. Hamels takes the hill for the Phils, and had he been on any other team would have gotten his first start on opening day. Instead he's the Phils 4th man in the rotation. Honestly I think that Hamels will be able to before much better this year without having to deal with the pressures of a number 1,2, or 3. I was hoping to see good value in his starts, but after the Phils hot opening series books aren't going to allow that to happen. His current price is ranging from -180 to -200, that's just sick and isn't warranted IMO. However it is still drawing a ton of Philly action as 68% is backing the ML & 75% is backing the RL. Lets see what Hamels did this spring, YIKES! He logged the second most amount of innings and produced an ERA of 6.67 in 27 innings pitched. That is a horrendous spring and things don't look to get that much easier today. Hamels kryptonite has been the Muts as over his career he's gone 2-8 against them, with an ERA of 3.83 and WHIP of 1.513. Mets season looked to be rough from the start but you sure couldn't tell against the Fish. They hit the ball well the final two games and grabbed 2 of 3 from the Marlins. Chris Young takes the hill for the Muts, biggest problem in his career has been the injuries. From his numbers this spring one can certainly say he's healthy. He logged the most innings for the organization and produced an ERA of 1.78 in 25 innings pitched. Last time he was in Philly he got rocked and couldn't make it out of the 4th. He opposed Hamels on top of that. After a solid spring maybe some revenge is coming in the Philly direction. Let's not forget the Phils also opened their season at home against the Stros, that isn't the best judge of how good they actually are. Well they may have deserved to be -200+ favs in that series, this one is a little different. Bottom line here is books set this number way to high, and all of the value lies in the Muts. Certainely worth the price win or lose.
HAMELS is 31-31 (-21.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 4.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
as chalk Cole is simply a .500 pitcher
HAMELS is 0-5 (-9.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 1.4, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Figured I would share my thoughts......Hope you don't mind Doug.
PS. JA Happ is worth a shot IMO as well. BOL my friend
By now most should know that I'm a big fan of playing dogs when there's a huge overlay, and today in Philly we certainely got one. Hamels takes the hill for the Phils, and had he been on any other team would have gotten his first start on opening day. Instead he's the Phils 4th man in the rotation. Honestly I think that Hamels will be able to before much better this year without having to deal with the pressures of a number 1,2, or 3. I was hoping to see good value in his starts, but after the Phils hot opening series books aren't going to allow that to happen. His current price is ranging from -180 to -200, that's just sick and isn't warranted IMO. However it is still drawing a ton of Philly action as 68% is backing the ML & 75% is backing the RL. Lets see what Hamels did this spring, YIKES! He logged the second most amount of innings and produced an ERA of 6.67 in 27 innings pitched. That is a horrendous spring and things don't look to get that much easier today. Hamels kryptonite has been the Muts as over his career he's gone 2-8 against them, with an ERA of 3.83 and WHIP of 1.513. Mets season looked to be rough from the start but you sure couldn't tell against the Fish. They hit the ball well the final two games and grabbed 2 of 3 from the Marlins. Chris Young takes the hill for the Muts, biggest problem in his career has been the injuries. From his numbers this spring one can certainly say he's healthy. He logged the most innings for the organization and produced an ERA of 1.78 in 25 innings pitched. Last time he was in Philly he got rocked and couldn't make it out of the 4th. He opposed Hamels on top of that. After a solid spring maybe some revenge is coming in the Philly direction. Let's not forget the Phils also opened their season at home against the Stros, that isn't the best judge of how good they actually are. Well they may have deserved to be -200+ favs in that series, this one is a little different. Bottom line here is books set this number way to high, and all of the value lies in the Muts. Certainely worth the price win or lose.
HAMELS is 31-31 (-21.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 4.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
as chalk Cole is simply a .500 pitcher
HAMELS is 0-5 (-9.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 1.4, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Figured I would share my thoughts......Hope you don't mind Doug.
PS. JA Happ is worth a shot IMO as well. BOL my friend
2* Houston Astros 1st 5 +1/2 (+110)
2* Houston Astros 1st 5 (+155)
Does anyone know the last time the Reds opened up 4-0? Well its been 21 years since that happened, however they have the ability to do it today. After Houston's opening series on the road it looks like the Reds should be able to do it with ease. Not so fast! You can't over look the fact that Mike Leake is getting the start today for the Reds. Talk about a disasterous spring, Leake was the icing on the cake! He logged the most innings for the Reds and compromised an ERA of 7.29 allowing 17 runs in six starts. On top of that the Astros are a team he went 1-2 against last season. Houston although getting swept againt the Phils were actually hitting the ball, the problem was scoring the runs. Their bully hurt them severely and had it not been for that they would have grabbed at least the first game off ace Roy Boy. I see no reason why the Stros shouldn't be able to hit Leake today, especially with the thought of last years 0-8 start dwelling in the back of the mind of every Houston player. Happ gets the start today and this lefty is fresh off a very impressive spring. He's faced the Reds once back in 09 but never saw them last season. I forsee some problems with the Reds bats today, as Happ should be able to control the game. Its also worthy to note that although Houston has been dominated in the past in Cinci, they have always played up to division foes as over the past 2 seasons they went 45-33. Something else that caught my eye is the Reds inability to bounce back after a blowout win. They are 14-30 at home after a win by 8 or more since 1997, and 5-15 in home games when its over a division rival since 97. I have faith in the stros today but I'm hopefully eliminating their bully by playing the 1st 5 only. The price is too good to say no. Not to mention that public is loving them some reds eating up the ML at a 60% and the RL at 71%.
2* Houston Astros 1st 5 (+155)
Does anyone know the last time the Reds opened up 4-0? Well its been 21 years since that happened, however they have the ability to do it today. After Houston's opening series on the road it looks like the Reds should be able to do it with ease. Not so fast! You can't over look the fact that Mike Leake is getting the start today for the Reds. Talk about a disasterous spring, Leake was the icing on the cake! He logged the most innings for the Reds and compromised an ERA of 7.29 allowing 17 runs in six starts. On top of that the Astros are a team he went 1-2 against last season. Houston although getting swept againt the Phils were actually hitting the ball, the problem was scoring the runs. Their bully hurt them severely and had it not been for that they would have grabbed at least the first game off ace Roy Boy. I see no reason why the Stros shouldn't be able to hit Leake today, especially with the thought of last years 0-8 start dwelling in the back of the mind of every Houston player. Happ gets the start today and this lefty is fresh off a very impressive spring. He's faced the Reds once back in 09 but never saw them last season. I forsee some problems with the Reds bats today, as Happ should be able to control the game. Its also worthy to note that although Houston has been dominated in the past in Cinci, they have always played up to division foes as over the past 2 seasons they went 45-33. Something else that caught my eye is the Reds inability to bounce back after a blowout win. They are 14-30 at home after a win by 8 or more since 1997, and 5-15 in home games when its over a division rival since 97. I have faith in the stros today but I'm hopefully eliminating their bully by playing the 1st 5 only. The price is too good to say no. Not to mention that public is loving them some reds eating up the ML at a 60% and the RL at 71%.
Is everyone forgetting Happ left his last start with an elbow strain and gave up 2 runs in 3 inning against a triple A team that had most of their key players on the Big team due to spring call ups. It was reported here that Happ would be out 4-6 weeks and now he is pitching less than 10 days from his injury.
