Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 3 7 0 -5.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 3 7 0 -5.90 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
FLORIDA –1½ +139 over Washington
The Nationals are batting .209 after three home games and you can expect more of the same on the road in a friendlier pitcher’s park like the Marlins’ Sun Life Stadium. Last year Annibal Sanchez put shoulder problems behind him on way to his best year since his '06 debut. He had a big second half and no reason that the ascent should not continue. Sanchez has churned out a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings this spring along with a 15/6 - K/BB. The guy can pitch and has ace-potential but injuries have kept him under the radar, as he has just 82 career starts. The Nats will turn to Jason Marquis and the only reason he made the team out of spring is because the ‘Mats’ are forced to pay his 7.5M salary. He’s been on four teams in the past five years, initially in the rotation but ultimately losing his spot to a long relief role. Marquis has a 7.07 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in Florida, his worst numbers at any stadium where he's pitched at least 25 innings. He’s a disaster waiting to happen and his only role this season will be to eat up innings. Marlins are 1-2 but they did hit a combined .278 with an OBP of .374 in opening series. Play: Florida –1½ +139 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +148 over TEXAS
Alexi Ogando posted a 4-1 record and a 1.30 ERA in 42 IP for the Rangers last season, all in relief. He has nasty stuff but he’s used to pitching to two or three batters and calling it a day. In the minors, Ogando started just three games and he is now being asked to take the mound in the bigs as a starter. Not an easy task. The righty is a converted outfielder that came up in mid- June and stymied hitters. However, a closer look reveals a 91% strand rate and a high HR/F % and that has to raise some concerns. Impact potential lurks but not at this price. The M’s will turn to highly touted rookie Michael Pineda. Pineda impressed throughout spring, making progress with his secondary pitches and consistently throwing his fastball in the high 90s. He made his first 13 starts of 2010 at Double-A, where he displayed his dominance as he struck out 78 batters, walked just 17 and allowed just one homer in 77 innings. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he finished the year with a 76-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 62 1/3 innings. Pineda is a big righthander with a live arm, dialing it up to 97 mph with two solid secondary offerings. The “kid” is ready to contribute and is worth a wager at this price against a career reliever. Play: Seattle +156 Play: Seattle +148 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –1½ +111 over CLEVELAND
The Red Sox are winless but pay no attention, as this is an elite squad with offensive potential that is off the charts. Josh Tomlin has a very low skill set. Lack of a good strikeout rate in the majors and problems with righties teeing off on him to the tune of an .881 OPS mean Tomlin will have little margin for error. Tomlin’s groundball/flyball ratio is an ugly 33%/46% and that’s a huge red flag. His ERA in ’09 was 6.14 but last year he fooled us by posting a 3.86 ERA. However, his xERA (expected ERA) was 4.85. Josh Beckett displayed near-elite skills (high GB rate, eight k’s per nine innings) last season in spite of ERA struggles. If he demonstrates that he's healthy, he's a strong rebound candidate and the Red Sox would not risk him if he wasn’t healthy. The Red Sox are going to get some wins in this series, that you can count on and it’s very likely to start here against a very weak #5 starter. Play: Boston –1½ +111 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 3 7 0 -5.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 3 7 0 -5.90 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
FLORIDA –1½ +139 over Washington
The Nationals are batting .209 after three home games and you can expect more of the same on the road in a friendlier pitcher’s park like the Marlins’ Sun Life Stadium. Last year Annibal Sanchez put shoulder problems behind him on way to his best year since his '06 debut. He had a big second half and no reason that the ascent should not continue. Sanchez has churned out a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings this spring along with a 15/6 - K/BB. The guy can pitch and has ace-potential but injuries have kept him under the radar, as he has just 82 career starts. The Nats will turn to Jason Marquis and the only reason he made the team out of spring is because the ‘Mats’ are forced to pay his 7.5M salary. He’s been on four teams in the past five years, initially in the rotation but ultimately losing his spot to a long relief role. Marquis has a 7.07 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in Florida, his worst numbers at any stadium where he's pitched at least 25 innings. He’s a disaster waiting to happen and his only role this season will be to eat up innings. Marlins are 1-2 but they did hit a combined .278 with an OBP of .374 in opening series. Play: Florida –1½ +139 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +148 over TEXAS
Alexi Ogando posted a 4-1 record and a 1.30 ERA in 42 IP for the Rangers last season, all in relief. He has nasty stuff but he’s used to pitching to two or three batters and calling it a day. In the minors, Ogando started just three games and he is now being asked to take the mound in the bigs as a starter. Not an easy task. The righty is a converted outfielder that came up in mid- June and stymied hitters. However, a closer look reveals a 91% strand rate and a high HR/F % and that has to raise some concerns. Impact potential lurks but not at this price. The M’s will turn to highly touted rookie Michael Pineda. Pineda impressed throughout spring, making progress with his secondary pitches and consistently throwing his fastball in the high 90s. He made his first 13 starts of 2010 at Double-A, where he displayed his dominance as he struck out 78 batters, walked just 17 and allowed just one homer in 77 innings. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he finished the year with a 76-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 62 1/3 innings. Pineda is a big righthander with a live arm, dialing it up to 97 mph with two solid secondary offerings. The “kid” is ready to contribute and is worth a wager at this price against a career reliever. Play: Seattle +156 Play: Seattle +148 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –1½ +111 over CLEVELAND
The Red Sox are winless but pay no attention, as this is an elite squad with offensive potential that is off the charts. Josh Tomlin has a very low skill set. Lack of a good strikeout rate in the majors and problems with righties teeing off on him to the tune of an .881 OPS mean Tomlin will have little margin for error. Tomlin’s groundball/flyball ratio is an ugly 33%/46% and that’s a huge red flag. His ERA in ’09 was 6.14 but last year he fooled us by posting a 3.86 ERA. However, his xERA (expected ERA) was 4.85. Josh Beckett displayed near-elite skills (high GB rate, eight k’s per nine innings) last season in spite of ERA struggles. If he demonstrates that he's healthy, he's a strong rebound candidate and the Red Sox would not risk him if he wasn’t healthy. The Red Sox are going to get some wins in this series, that you can count on and it’s very likely to start here against a very weak #5 starter. Play: Boston –1½ +111 (Risking 2 units).
