The Magic Of Buck Showalter

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The 'magic' of Buck Showalter

O's impressive improvement explainable by better players rather than manager's touch


Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
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On Aug. 3, the day Buck Showalter managed his first game with the Baltimore Orioles, the team sat in last place at 32-73, a full 34 games out of first and 22.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for fourth in the American League East. There was little hope for the 2010 Orioles to even escape the cellar, let alone make some noise in baseball's most challenging division.


However, the former "Baseball Tonight" analyst led the Orioles to a 34-23 record after taking over, behind only the Twins and Phillies for the best record in the majors during that stretch. The Orioles were firing on all cylinders, hitting better, pitching better and playing better defense.


The remarkable turnaround has carried through the offseason and into the first week of the 2011 regular season. The Orioles won four in a row to kick off the season, including a sweep of the division-rival Rays in St. Petersburg. Has Showalter developed a magical touch that has worked wonders with the young Orioles?
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Buck Up

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Category</TH><TH>2010 pre-Showalter</TH><TH>2010-11 with Showalter*</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>W-L</TD><TD>32-73</TD><TD>38-24</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Runs per Game</TD><TD>3.61</TD><TD>4.10</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Runs Allowed per Game</TD><TD>5.46</TD><TD>3.60</TD></TR></TBODY><TFOOT><TR><TD colSpan=3>*through Wednesday's game</TD></TR></TFOOT></TABLE>

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Digging a little deeper, we find the Orioles changed more than just their manager toward the end of last season.


First came the left-field transition. After trying Nolan Reimold and Corey Patterson as starting left fielders, Felix Pie started playing every day in early July. Pie didn't bring a strong bat to the lineup (although he's no worse than Reimold or Patterson), but he provided above-average defense alongside Nick Markakis and former Gold Glove-winner Adam Jones.


One of the few cornerstones of the roster, Brian Roberts, missed the majority of the 2010 season with a back injury. Coincidentally, Roberts returned to the lineup at the end of July, shortly before Showalter was hired. Roberts isn't a powerful offensive force, but he was a significant upgrade over Julio Lugo's sub-.300 OBP.


Roberts' return allowed Ty Wigginton to shift from second base, where he was overmatched defensively, to first. Around the same time, the Orioles traded Miguel Tejada and his .308 OBP, and gave prospect Josh Bell an audition as the everyday third baseman. Bell struggled mightily against major league pitching but is a small upgrade defensively over the veteran Tejada.


On top of the lineup turnover, the Orioles' pitching staff got a boost from the farm system. With Brian Matusz already in the rotation, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta had joined him by season's end. Tillman struggled in his first six starts in midsummer but got better results in his five starts with Baltimore after Sept. 1.


The Orioles also saw Koji Uehara return from an early-season injury to become an extremely effective option out of the 'pen, eventually taking over the closer's role from Alfredo Simon.


Regardless of the managerial situation, the Orioles' lineup heading into August was stronger, at least on the mound and in the field, than the roster Showalter's predecessors had to work with. While he's certainly generated some excitement around the Orioles, Showalter's "magic" is perhaps better characterized as "better players."


Most teams on impressive streaks benefit from at least a little luck, and Showalter's crew is no exception. In fact, the Orioles' offensive statistics since Showalter took the helm are almost identical to their pre-Showalter numbers, despite the fact that they've scored half a run more per game.

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The Turnaround

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Category</TH><TH>2010 pre-Showalter</TH><TH>2010-11 with Showalter*</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Batting Average</TD><TD>.256</TD><TD>.261</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>On Base Percentage</TD><TD>.314</TD><TD>.310</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Slugging Percentage</TD><TD>.384</TD><TD>.386</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Strikeouts per 9 Innings</TD><TD>6.1</TD><TD>6.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Walks per 9 Innings</TD><TD>3.6</TD><TD>2.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>1.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Good Fielding Plays per Game</TD><TD>2.1 (24th in MLB)</TD><TD>3.1 (3rd in MLB)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Defensive Misplays + Errors per Game</TD><TD>2.3 (19th in MLB)</TD><TD>2.1 (10th in MLB)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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The improvement on the mound and in the field does show up in the numbers. Just watching the games, we can see the defensive improvement. Showalter's team has made more Web Gem-type Good Fielding Plays and fewer Defensive Misplays and Errors than the early-2010 team (as recorded by Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts). Additionally, the Orioles' staff has improved its strikeout, walk and home run rates since Showalter took over.


Heading into 2011, the Orioles traded for Mark Reynolds and signed free agent Derrek Lee, both moderate improvements over the offensive production the team got from Tejada, Bell, Garrett Atkins and Ty Wigginton at the corner infield positions last year. Although Reynolds has never rated well defensively (below-average runs saved at the hot corner in each of his five big league seasons), Lee brings a solid glove to the right side of the infield.


New shortstop J.J. Hardy also will be an upgrade over Cesar Izturis on both sides of the ball. And Baltimore signed 36-year-old Vladimir Guerrero coming off a resurgent season. However, after accounting for park effects, Guerrero is hardly an upgrade over the .902 OPS that Luke Scott posted in an underrated performance as the Orioles' primary DH last season.


Additionally, the Orioles' minor league system continues to churn out pitching prospects, as Zach Britton pitched well in his major league debut. When Matusz recovers from a back muscle injury, he'll complete a young rotation with tremendous upside -- the exact opposite of last year's Opening Day rotation, which featured Kevin Millwood at the top.


Unfortunately, Showalter's club has a tall mountain to climb. Despite its late-season surge, it finished 30 games out of the competitive AL East. While the 2011 Orioles are off to a fantastic start and are taking several steps in the right direction, Showalter's "magic" is unlikely to last long.
 

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