Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.68 Units
Last 30 Days 10 16 0 -8.44 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 10 16 0 -8.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado +106 over NY METS
Some will see Mike Pelfrey’s sub 4.00 ERA and expect a repeat but let those people chase the dream. His BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page) remains far below average and he had big skills erosion in the second half last season. A strand rate of 74% was a big factor in Pelfrey keeping his ERA under 4.00 but he’s not going to be able to mask his deficiencies much longer. Pelfrey's 1.67 strikeouts-per-walk ratio over the past three seasons ranks seventh-worst among pitchers with 480-plus innings. Everything hit off of Pelfrey this year in his two atrocious starts has been hit hard including the few outs he’s recorded. In two starts covering just 6.1 innings, Pelfrey has walked five, struck out three, allowed 12 hits and 11 ER. The guy is fooling nobody and he didn’t fool many last year either despite what the surface stats say. Jason Hammel struggled last year due to a groin strain that nagged him early in the season. After April, his skills were either solid or electric. His BPV by month, starting in May: 165, 71, 122, 66 and 78. His 2H blowup (5.19 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) was partly due to a 34% hit rate and 64% strand rate. His other problem has been being unable to repeat his delivery, which is why he's been re-working his delivery this spring to find a consistent release point. If the adjustments work, there's a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher here. Hammel has a decent groundball rate of 46% and he also has a strong SO/BB ratio. Those are all good signs but the best thing about this play is the plus money we get on Hammel over Pelfrey. Play: Colorado +106 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis –113 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings)
Stay as far away from Barry Enright as possible. Enright had a 3.91 ERA in 99 IP for Arizona last season, but his skills were a disaster waiting to happen. His 50% fly ball rate, 1.8 hr/9, 13% hr/f, and low dominance were all strong warning signs and now that these hitters have all seen him and studied him his chances for success are near zero. Enright's spring performance did little to quell those fears, as he allowed five jacks in 22 innings and the only reason he’s starting is because Aaron Heilman and Armando Gallarraga are even less reliable. Last year Enright’s strand rate was an eye-opening 78% and no matter how you break this guy down his warts are showing all over the place. Kyle McClellan shaved nearly two walks off his walks per nine innings last season. McClellan posted some great numbers in relief last season, allowing just 58 hits in 75.1 innings. In his first start this season he went six full and allowed just six hits, two runs, walked one and struck out seven. He also induced 57% groundballs in that first start and everything says buy now. This is a cheap lay on McClennan against Enright. The Cards pen has been a mess so far this year and because this one is all about the starting pitchers, the wager here is the Cardinals in the first five innings. Play: St. Louis –111 in the first five innings (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 10 16 0 -8.44 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 10 16 0 -8.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado +106 over NY METS
Some will see Mike Pelfrey’s sub 4.00 ERA and expect a repeat but let those people chase the dream. His BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page) remains far below average and he had big skills erosion in the second half last season. A strand rate of 74% was a big factor in Pelfrey keeping his ERA under 4.00 but he’s not going to be able to mask his deficiencies much longer. Pelfrey's 1.67 strikeouts-per-walk ratio over the past three seasons ranks seventh-worst among pitchers with 480-plus innings. Everything hit off of Pelfrey this year in his two atrocious starts has been hit hard including the few outs he’s recorded. In two starts covering just 6.1 innings, Pelfrey has walked five, struck out three, allowed 12 hits and 11 ER. The guy is fooling nobody and he didn’t fool many last year either despite what the surface stats say. Jason Hammel struggled last year due to a groin strain that nagged him early in the season. After April, his skills were either solid or electric. His BPV by month, starting in May: 165, 71, 122, 66 and 78. His 2H blowup (5.19 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) was partly due to a 34% hit rate and 64% strand rate. His other problem has been being unable to repeat his delivery, which is why he's been re-working his delivery this spring to find a consistent release point. If the adjustments work, there's a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher here. Hammel has a decent groundball rate of 46% and he also has a strong SO/BB ratio. Those are all good signs but the best thing about this play is the plus money we get on Hammel over Pelfrey. Play: Colorado +106 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis –113 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings)
Stay as far away from Barry Enright as possible. Enright had a 3.91 ERA in 99 IP for Arizona last season, but his skills were a disaster waiting to happen. His 50% fly ball rate, 1.8 hr/9, 13% hr/f, and low dominance were all strong warning signs and now that these hitters have all seen him and studied him his chances for success are near zero. Enright's spring performance did little to quell those fears, as he allowed five jacks in 22 innings and the only reason he’s starting is because Aaron Heilman and Armando Gallarraga are even less reliable. Last year Enright’s strand rate was an eye-opening 78% and no matter how you break this guy down his warts are showing all over the place. Kyle McClellan shaved nearly two walks off his walks per nine innings last season. McClellan posted some great numbers in relief last season, allowing just 58 hits in 75.1 innings. In his first start this season he went six full and allowed just six hits, two runs, walked one and struck out seven. He also induced 57% groundballs in that first start and everything says buy now. This is a cheap lay on McClennan against Enright. The Cards pen has been a mess so far this year and because this one is all about the starting pitchers, the wager here is the Cardinals in the first five innings. Play: St. Louis –111 in the first five innings (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
