Yesterday 2 0 0 +4.12 Units
Last 30 Days 12 16 0 -4.32 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 12 16 0 -4.32 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati +106 over SAN DIEGO
Some pundits are singing the praises of Clayton Richard as a "sleeper" as he prepares to fill the #2 slot in the Padres rotation. When we look at the skills** (for a deeper explanation of “skills” see bottom of these write-ups) and Richard's disastrous spring, we’re not so sure. After a smashing first half for the Padres, Richard came back to earth in the 2H of the 2010 season. When we compare his 1H ERA (2.74) with his 2H ERA (4.78), we question if Richard just tired out or did the batters figure him out? Well his strand rate of 79% in the first half and 69% in the second half tells us he was lucky in the first half and things normalized later on. Richard has always had average stuff and will likely never be anything more. He doesn’t strike out many, his WHIP his always higher than average and he has big time trouble getting out righties. Sam LeCure pitched reasonably well in getting a no-decision Thursday against the Astros, holding them to two runs over five innings while striking out six in the process. LeCure isn’t going to dazzle anyone but his first start was encouraging against a weak offense and he’ll face another weak offense here. However, this choice is much more about playing against an overvalued Clayton Richard. Current Reds hitters are batting a combined .349 against Richard in 63 combined AB’s and when you add in the Reds superior offense and a tag, it seals the deal. Play: Cincinnati +106 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +105 over NY METS
The Mets’ Jonathon Niese has a 6.55 ERA after his first two starts, a mark that has been driven by his 36% hit rate and 43% strand rate. He also pitched a game in Philly this season and when you break it all down, he is better than his surface stats suggest. Niese is going to fly under the radar and is a legit breakout target this season. Niese is not the problem. The problem is the Mets bullpen, which is about as inept as it gets. New York’s pen has thrown 38 innings thus far and has allowed 50 hits, 18 walks and hit two batters. That’s 70 baserunners in 38 frames for a WHIP of 1.78. That adds a lot of pressure to the starter because he feels like he has to be near perfect. It also makes the manager extremely gun shy to lift his starter and who could blame him? The Mets bullpen has an ERA of 5.31 and an xERA of 6.37. The Rockies are 7-2 and their pen has an ERA of 2.32. Emil Rogers was solid in his first start of the year in Pittsburgh in where he tossed 7.1 frames and allowed just four hits and one run. Rogers has an outstanding groundball profile over his 10 major league starts of 56% and that was evident again in his first start in which he induced 58% grounders. Starting pitching here is a tossup but when you factor in the respective bullpens and the current mental state of both clubs, the visitor clearly has the edge.. Play: Colorado +105 (Risking 2 units).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 12 16 0 -4.32 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 12 16 0 -4.32 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati +106 over SAN DIEGO
Some pundits are singing the praises of Clayton Richard as a "sleeper" as he prepares to fill the #2 slot in the Padres rotation. When we look at the skills** (for a deeper explanation of “skills” see bottom of these write-ups) and Richard's disastrous spring, we’re not so sure. After a smashing first half for the Padres, Richard came back to earth in the 2H of the 2010 season. When we compare his 1H ERA (2.74) with his 2H ERA (4.78), we question if Richard just tired out or did the batters figure him out? Well his strand rate of 79% in the first half and 69% in the second half tells us he was lucky in the first half and things normalized later on. Richard has always had average stuff and will likely never be anything more. He doesn’t strike out many, his WHIP his always higher than average and he has big time trouble getting out righties. Sam LeCure pitched reasonably well in getting a no-decision Thursday against the Astros, holding them to two runs over five innings while striking out six in the process. LeCure isn’t going to dazzle anyone but his first start was encouraging against a weak offense and he’ll face another weak offense here. However, this choice is much more about playing against an overvalued Clayton Richard. Current Reds hitters are batting a combined .349 against Richard in 63 combined AB’s and when you add in the Reds superior offense and a tag, it seals the deal. Play: Cincinnati +106 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +105 over NY METS
The Mets’ Jonathon Niese has a 6.55 ERA after his first two starts, a mark that has been driven by his 36% hit rate and 43% strand rate. He also pitched a game in Philly this season and when you break it all down, he is better than his surface stats suggest. Niese is going to fly under the radar and is a legit breakout target this season. Niese is not the problem. The problem is the Mets bullpen, which is about as inept as it gets. New York’s pen has thrown 38 innings thus far and has allowed 50 hits, 18 walks and hit two batters. That’s 70 baserunners in 38 frames for a WHIP of 1.78. That adds a lot of pressure to the starter because he feels like he has to be near perfect. It also makes the manager extremely gun shy to lift his starter and who could blame him? The Mets bullpen has an ERA of 5.31 and an xERA of 6.37. The Rockies are 7-2 and their pen has an ERA of 2.32. Emil Rogers was solid in his first start of the year in Pittsburgh in where he tossed 7.1 frames and allowed just four hits and one run. Rogers has an outstanding groundball profile over his 10 major league starts of 56% and that was evident again in his first start in which he induced 58% grounders. Starting pitching here is a tossup but when you factor in the respective bullpens and the current mental state of both clubs, the visitor clearly has the edge.. Play: Colorado +105 (Risking 2 units).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
