magic number plays

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I truly believe that all teams, pitchers and ballparks have their 'magic number' when it comes to totals and sides. You will rarely see San Diego home totals at 8 or higher and when you do, then don't overreact as that total is higher than usual for a very good reason. The same is true for almost all other teams, except the magic number is different from team to team. The same can be said for sides. The Yankees are rarely a small fave at home, regardless how they play and who they face. So, following that logic I will be posting daily totals and sides that I believe have the best chance to win.

Only one play today: Under 6.5 in the LAD vs STL game.

LAD ballpark is a pitcher friendly ballpark but their totals are almost always 7.5 or lower and that's why they actually have more overs than unders in the long run. However, when their home totals are 6.5, the under is 7-2 in last 5 seasons. As for STL, their total is rarely under 7 and so far this season it happened only once, with the same starter on the mound, and the game ended 3-2. Both starters are virtually unhittable so far this season and that is a good thing. They allowed 4 earned runs in 30.2 innings pitched so far this season, they have 27 K's and only 5 BB's and they have done it with a very low pitches/innings pitched ratio.
 

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THAT IS EXTREMELY SOUND LOGIC..GOOD LUCK WITH THIS THREAD

Garcia looks like he'll be their ace soon :toast:
 

Fah-New-Gee
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winbig .... you normally bring some intersting capping views to the table - like this idea.

good luck tonight.
 

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Sep 6, 2006
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I usually only bet on Angels and Dodger games, and normally just the totals. I think this "However, when their home totals are 6.5, the under is 7-2 in last 5 seasons." is a little off, or I am missing something? This is just 2010 overs on the 6.5 total at HOME.


09/19/10 COL W 7-6 Jason Hammel (R) Clayton Kershaw (L) W -137 O 6.5 -111
09/04/10 SF L 4-5 Matt Cain (R) Ted Lilly (L) L -118 O 6.5 -107
08/02/10 SD L 5-10 Clayton Richard (L) Hiroki Kuroda (R) L -132 O 6.5 -125
07/23/10 NYM L 1-6 Johan Santana (L) Vicente Padilla (R) L -113 O 6.5 -122
07/20/10 SF L 5-7 Tim Lincecum (R) Clayton Kershaw (L) L -118 O 6.5 111
06/09/10 STL W 4-3 Adam Wainwright (R) Clayton Kershaw (L) W 105 O 6.5 103
 

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i love his picks, but he always disappears for a few months after posting a loser.
 

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