Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.48 Units
Last 30 Days 15 18 0 -1.72 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 15 18 0 -1.72 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Seattle +120 over KANSAS CITY
This equation is a rather simple one that says - take +120 against Bruce Chen when we have the stronger starter. Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 140 IP at KC last with 11 wins in 23 games started, while the rest of KC starters won 35 in 139 games started. Remarkable when you consider that Chen’s skills are bordering on completely washed up. Chen managed to somehow stymie the Tigers in his last start but in his first start of the season v the Angels, 76% of his pitches were fastballs and the Halos crushed them (3 home runs, 2 doubles). Current M’s batters have faced Chen a combined 75 times and have a combined .324 BA against him. Doug Fister is not a veteran but he’s as crafty as one. He’s a soft-tosser with great command and those types have stuck around with success at this level forever. Fister is 0-2 this season but his ERA is 2.31 and he deserved better outcomes. Last year, in 160 IP his hr/9 was only 0.6 and his groundball/fly-ball rate was 49%/34%. All in all, Fister has made strides in groundball% and control, which provide the foundation for success. His control has reached elite levels and the Royals are exactly the type of team he can have more success against. Play: Seattle +120 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +129 over ATLANTA
The Marlins come in a game over .500 while the Braves have dipped two below. Brandon Beachy put up some very decent minor league numbers and he also performed well in a short stint with the Braves last season, fanning 15 in 15 IP, with a 3.00 ERA. However, in two starts this season he’s left the ball over the plate way too often and the result has been a groundball/flyball ratio of 29%/47% and that’s a huge reason for concern. He’s also served up a homer in each of his two starts. He’s a rookie throwing for a struggling Braves team that has just two wins in their past seven contests. Last season seemed to typify Ricky Nolasco. He got off to a poor start, caught fire and got hurt. Indeed those three trains -- inconsistency, superb skills and lack of durability -- have defined him. He’s off to another great start this season with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 2.41. Nolasco has yet to walk a single batter in 15 IP. Nolasco has the raw tools to break out and has been on the verge of doing so for two years. His hit% and strand% are the difference between his stellar 2008 numbers and his pedestrian ERAs the past two years but there's little doubt he has the base skills to step up his game and consistently be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. Play: Florida +129 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 15 18 0 -1.72 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 15 18 0 -1.72 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Seattle +120 over KANSAS CITY
This equation is a rather simple one that says - take +120 against Bruce Chen when we have the stronger starter. Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 140 IP at KC last with 11 wins in 23 games started, while the rest of KC starters won 35 in 139 games started. Remarkable when you consider that Chen’s skills are bordering on completely washed up. Chen managed to somehow stymie the Tigers in his last start but in his first start of the season v the Angels, 76% of his pitches were fastballs and the Halos crushed them (3 home runs, 2 doubles). Current M’s batters have faced Chen a combined 75 times and have a combined .324 BA against him. Doug Fister is not a veteran but he’s as crafty as one. He’s a soft-tosser with great command and those types have stuck around with success at this level forever. Fister is 0-2 this season but his ERA is 2.31 and he deserved better outcomes. Last year, in 160 IP his hr/9 was only 0.6 and his groundball/fly-ball rate was 49%/34%. All in all, Fister has made strides in groundball% and control, which provide the foundation for success. His control has reached elite levels and the Royals are exactly the type of team he can have more success against. Play: Seattle +120 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +129 over ATLANTA
The Marlins come in a game over .500 while the Braves have dipped two below. Brandon Beachy put up some very decent minor league numbers and he also performed well in a short stint with the Braves last season, fanning 15 in 15 IP, with a 3.00 ERA. However, in two starts this season he’s left the ball over the plate way too often and the result has been a groundball/flyball ratio of 29%/47% and that’s a huge reason for concern. He’s also served up a homer in each of his two starts. He’s a rookie throwing for a struggling Braves team that has just two wins in their past seven contests. Last season seemed to typify Ricky Nolasco. He got off to a poor start, caught fire and got hurt. Indeed those three trains -- inconsistency, superb skills and lack of durability -- have defined him. He’s off to another great start this season with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 2.41. Nolasco has yet to walk a single batter in 15 IP. Nolasco has the raw tools to break out and has been on the verge of doing so for two years. His hit% and strand% are the difference between his stellar 2008 numbers and his pedestrian ERAs the past two years but there's little doubt he has the base skills to step up his game and consistently be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. Play: Florida +129 (Risking 2 units).
