Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.58 Units
Last 30 Days 16 19 0 -1.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 16 19 0 -1.14 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Diego +102 over HOUSTON
Since a fateful stretch in ’08 that saw Harang throw over 400 pitches (including warm-ups) in a four-day stretch, he has not been the same pitcher who had 200 strikeouts in both the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati was not kind to him as he continually battled the hitter friendly park. Harang's control regressed badly but you would try to nibble at the corners too if you gave up 108 HR in 113 career games at your home diamond. Things could not have changed for the better. Harang is now 32 years old and he’s playing in his hometown. He’s happy and he could be in for a big rebound this season. He’s already 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He faces an Astros team that he beat twice last year and posted an ERA of 2.08 in the process. His confidence appears to be back. J.A. Happ went 6-4 with a 3.40 ERA in 87 IP at Philly and Houston last year. A forearm strain and lost velocity torpedoed his 1H. His second half was better but still filled with issues. He gets strikeouts but control and gopheritis (giving up HR’s) are ongoing cautions. He’s walked more batters this year (9) than he’s struck out (7) and his ERA of 6.17 isn’t far off from his xERA of 6.93. In two starts, aside from walking nine, Happ’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 24%/24%/51% is alarming to say the least. Right now Happ and the Astros are a bad combination to be laying anything with.. Play: San Diego +102 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +103 over LOS ANGELES
In their last five games the Cardinals have scored 6, 8, 8, 15 and 9 last night at Chavez Ravine. Tonight, they remain in L.A. to face the inept Jon Garland. Garland put up some numbers last year that should not be believed and it sure didn’t hurt that he pitched most of his games at Petco Park. A 77% strand rate helped his ERA (3.47) enormously but his xERA of 4.45 is the very minimum you should expect this year. In June and July of last season when his strand rate was at normal levels (65-70%) his ERA’s were 5.28 and 5.02 respectively. When his luck ran out in those two months, even the spacious Petco Park could not hide his deficiencies. This is a pedestrian skill** (for a more in-depth look at skills see bottom of these write-ups) set that is not likely to improve but is very likely to get worse. For the Cardinals, Kyle Lohse’s two starts this season has produced a groundball rate of 58%. He’s walked just one batter in 15 IP while striking out 10. Lohse isn’t going to dazzle but he’s under the tutelage of Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan and Duncan has a long and incredible history of picking up pitchers from the scrap heap and getting the absolute best out of them for a year or two. Tony LaRussa isn’t the “genius” behind the Cards, Duncan is and he’s proved it over and over again with guys exactly like Kyle Loshe. A red-hot offense taking back a small tag, facing one of the league’s biggest imposters gets the call. Play: St. Louis +103 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +166 over BOSTON
The undervalued Blue Jays vs the overvalued Red Sox. Eight players on the Jays are hitting over .300 and six of those are batting over .350. Excluded in that group are Adam Lind and Aaron Hill but both are swinging the bats well and more hits from that duo are forthcoming. Brett Cecil is off to a rough 0-1 start with an ERA of 7.20. That has influence on this price. Cecil doesn't get the fanfare of Toronto's other high upside starters, so his 7.20 ERA and 1.90 WHIP looks even worse. In reality, he has been hurt by a high 39% hit rate and 18% HR/F. Keep in mind, however, that he's been a strong first half performer the last two seasons and if he's healthy, he'll rebound. Cecil has had a whole slew of gems in his brief two-year career. Clay Buchholz is coming off a terrific 2010 on paper. However, there are plenty reasons why he won't repeat 2010 breakout season: 1. xERA says ERA gains are a mirage. 2. Control, strikeout rate and command continue to slip. His LOB % a year ago was 79%. This year after two starts his LOB percentage is 81% and he still has an ERA of 7.20. Buchholz has been the luckiest pitcher in the league and it simply cannot last. He’s going to be a good fade for many starts this season. His surface stats are completely unsupported by his underlying skills and it sure doesn’t make things easier that the Red Sox are struggling miserably with a 2-9 record. Play: Toronto +166 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +127 over N.Y. YANKEES
Great value is common when betting against the Yanks and Red Sox and today is a prime example. The Rangers come in with a 9-3 record and Matt Harrison has been near flawless in two starts. Harrison’s career numbers do not support this year’s numbers but he’s only 25 years old and his control problems of the past appear to be rectified. Harrison has only walked three batters while striking out 11 in 14 IP. His groundball rate of 50% and WHIP of 0.71 are strong indications of a young pitcher turning a corner. Even if Harrison gives up a few, the Rangers still have a great chance of winning. The Yankee’s starter, Ivan Nova needs more seasoning and should probably still be in the minors. Because the Yanks are short on starters he’s been summoned to start here. Nova has started two games this season while he pitched 42 innings for the Yanks last year and he’s been consistently inconsistent. Nova has walked four and struck out six in 10 innings and comes in with an ERA of 6.10. The opposition has hit .302 off him this season and that’s after facing two struggling offenses in Minnesota and Boston. As soon as the Yanks get some healthy bodies back, Nova is heading back down to Triple-A and that is an added pressure. The Rangers aren’t struggling. They’re third in the AL in runs scored and second in homers with 18. The Rangers pen (fifth best in the league) has performed a lot better than the Yanks’ pen thus far adding another positive element to this attractive take-back. Play: Texas +127 (Risking 2 units).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 16 19 0 -1.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 16 19 0 -1.14 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Diego +102 over HOUSTON
Since a fateful stretch in ’08 that saw Harang throw over 400 pitches (including warm-ups) in a four-day stretch, he has not been the same pitcher who had 200 strikeouts in both the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati was not kind to him as he continually battled the hitter friendly park. Harang's control regressed badly but you would try to nibble at the corners too if you gave up 108 HR in 113 career games at your home diamond. Things could not have changed for the better. Harang is now 32 years old and he’s playing in his hometown. He’s happy and he could be in for a big rebound this season. He’s already 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He faces an Astros team that he beat twice last year and posted an ERA of 2.08 in the process. His confidence appears to be back. J.A. Happ went 6-4 with a 3.40 ERA in 87 IP at Philly and Houston last year. A forearm strain and lost velocity torpedoed his 1H. His second half was better but still filled with issues. He gets strikeouts but control and gopheritis (giving up HR’s) are ongoing cautions. He’s walked more batters this year (9) than he’s struck out (7) and his ERA of 6.17 isn’t far off from his xERA of 6.93. In two starts, aside from walking nine, Happ’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 24%/24%/51% is alarming to say the least. Right now Happ and the Astros are a bad combination to be laying anything with.. Play: San Diego +102 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +103 over LOS ANGELES
In their last five games the Cardinals have scored 6, 8, 8, 15 and 9 last night at Chavez Ravine. Tonight, they remain in L.A. to face the inept Jon Garland. Garland put up some numbers last year that should not be believed and it sure didn’t hurt that he pitched most of his games at Petco Park. A 77% strand rate helped his ERA (3.47) enormously but his xERA of 4.45 is the very minimum you should expect this year. In June and July of last season when his strand rate was at normal levels (65-70%) his ERA’s were 5.28 and 5.02 respectively. When his luck ran out in those two months, even the spacious Petco Park could not hide his deficiencies. This is a pedestrian skill** (for a more in-depth look at skills see bottom of these write-ups) set that is not likely to improve but is very likely to get worse. For the Cardinals, Kyle Lohse’s two starts this season has produced a groundball rate of 58%. He’s walked just one batter in 15 IP while striking out 10. Lohse isn’t going to dazzle but he’s under the tutelage of Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan and Duncan has a long and incredible history of picking up pitchers from the scrap heap and getting the absolute best out of them for a year or two. Tony LaRussa isn’t the “genius” behind the Cards, Duncan is and he’s proved it over and over again with guys exactly like Kyle Loshe. A red-hot offense taking back a small tag, facing one of the league’s biggest imposters gets the call. Play: St. Louis +103 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +166 over BOSTON
The undervalued Blue Jays vs the overvalued Red Sox. Eight players on the Jays are hitting over .300 and six of those are batting over .350. Excluded in that group are Adam Lind and Aaron Hill but both are swinging the bats well and more hits from that duo are forthcoming. Brett Cecil is off to a rough 0-1 start with an ERA of 7.20. That has influence on this price. Cecil doesn't get the fanfare of Toronto's other high upside starters, so his 7.20 ERA and 1.90 WHIP looks even worse. In reality, he has been hurt by a high 39% hit rate and 18% HR/F. Keep in mind, however, that he's been a strong first half performer the last two seasons and if he's healthy, he'll rebound. Cecil has had a whole slew of gems in his brief two-year career. Clay Buchholz is coming off a terrific 2010 on paper. However, there are plenty reasons why he won't repeat 2010 breakout season: 1. xERA says ERA gains are a mirage. 2. Control, strikeout rate and command continue to slip. His LOB % a year ago was 79%. This year after two starts his LOB percentage is 81% and he still has an ERA of 7.20. Buchholz has been the luckiest pitcher in the league and it simply cannot last. He’s going to be a good fade for many starts this season. His surface stats are completely unsupported by his underlying skills and it sure doesn’t make things easier that the Red Sox are struggling miserably with a 2-9 record. Play: Toronto +166 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +127 over N.Y. YANKEES
Great value is common when betting against the Yanks and Red Sox and today is a prime example. The Rangers come in with a 9-3 record and Matt Harrison has been near flawless in two starts. Harrison’s career numbers do not support this year’s numbers but he’s only 25 years old and his control problems of the past appear to be rectified. Harrison has only walked three batters while striking out 11 in 14 IP. His groundball rate of 50% and WHIP of 0.71 are strong indications of a young pitcher turning a corner. Even if Harrison gives up a few, the Rangers still have a great chance of winning. The Yankee’s starter, Ivan Nova needs more seasoning and should probably still be in the minors. Because the Yanks are short on starters he’s been summoned to start here. Nova has started two games this season while he pitched 42 innings for the Yanks last year and he’s been consistently inconsistent. Nova has walked four and struck out six in 10 innings and comes in with an ERA of 6.10. The opposition has hit .302 off him this season and that’s after facing two struggling offenses in Minnesota and Boston. As soon as the Yanks get some healthy bodies back, Nova is heading back down to Triple-A and that is an added pressure. The Rangers aren’t struggling. They’re third in the AL in runs scored and second in homers with 18. The Rangers pen (fifth best in the league) has performed a lot better than the Yanks’ pen thus far adding another positive element to this attractive take-back. Play: Texas +127 (Risking 2 units).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
