Yesterday 4 0 0 +9.96 Units
Last 30 Days 20 19 0 +8.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 20 19 0 +8.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Baltimore +103 over Cleveland
The Indians are off to a great 9-4 start that included a 7-0 run. They’re scoring runs while both the bullpen and starting pitching has been sharp. The Indians’ Josh Tomlin is off to a great 2-0 start with a 2.63 ERA and that hot start provides us with a great opportunity here to cash in because Tomlin is not a 2.63 ERA pitcher. He went 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA in 73 IP for the Tribe last year. Righties whacked him to the tune of a .881 OPS, far too big of a number. His stats also provided a lofty groundball/fly-ball ratio of 28%/50%. These are not the contrarian stats of a winning pitcher or even an average one. Those kinds of numbers eventually become exposed. Whether it is today or not, Tomlin does not warrant the chalk’s role over the superior Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie’s 1-1 record and 0.64 ERA thus far is not to be believed either but he did face the Rangers in one of those games and held them in check. Last year he went through a stretch in which he allowed only seven earned runs over six consecutive starts. Guthrie is 31 and he’s durable, as he has averaged 30 games started and increased his IP each season during that time. Much prefer Baltimore’s solid starter to Cleveland’s imposter. Play: Baltimore +103 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +110 over N.Y. YANKEES
Props to Freddy Garcia for coming back from three straight years of injury to post a near full season at age 34. Garcia is now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and this is not the team nor the stadium that you want to be serving up hangers over the plate against. Due to various off days and rain delays, the Yankees have yet to use their fifth starter but are forced to do so today. In a three-year stretch between ’07-’09, Garcia threw less than 150 innings combined. He was hit hard last season as a member of the White Sox with an ERA close to 5.00 in 157 frames. The Yankees rotation is a mess. Phil Hughes has a dead arm. A.J. Burnett can’t get anyone out. Ivan Nova is a minor-league pitcher and now they’ve slotted in Bartolo Colon. Garcia is a part of that mess. He has no value whatsoever as the chalk as he’s a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound. Derek Holland went 3-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 57 IP at Texas last year. His health is a consideration after missing June/July last year with knee and rotator cuff issues and he did show some rust in 2H, but he did have K/9, hr/9 gains all year and remains a promising work-in-progress. Holland has also had a decent start to the year with a 2.25 ERA after allowing just 12 hits and three ER in 12 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. The Yanks wanted revenge badly yesterday against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last October. They didn’t get it and they’re likely not going to get it here either. Play: Texas +110. Play: Texas +110 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago/COLORADO over 10 +102
The most extreme hitters' park in baseball thanks to its high altitude, Coors Field remains an offensive boon even since the introduction of humidors to keep baseballs from drying out. The park has spacious dimensions that should rob some homers but all that green also makes for easy doubles and triples. No park in baseball has been as hitter-friendly in modern times. Enter Casey Coleman and Jason Hammel. Hammel has made two starts this season and in 11 innings he’s walked four and struck out five. That tells us the ball will be in play today and when you consider that current Cub hitters are batting .366 against Hammel his chances for a good game are slim. Despite being 1-0 this season, Hammel has not looked sharp at all against the Dodgers or Mets. Casey Coleman went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 57 innings last season for the Cubbies. A helpful groundball% punched his ticket to the show, but that GB level isn't elite enough to cover for his intolerable command of the strike zone and very low strikeout rate. Coleman just goes out there and waits for his fielders to make plays and that’s a tough way to survive at this venue or any venue for that matter. All signs point to a four-hour game. Play: Chicago/Colorado over 10 +102 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 20 19 0 +8.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 20 19 0 +8.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Baltimore +103 over Cleveland
The Indians are off to a great 9-4 start that included a 7-0 run. They’re scoring runs while both the bullpen and starting pitching has been sharp. The Indians’ Josh Tomlin is off to a great 2-0 start with a 2.63 ERA and that hot start provides us with a great opportunity here to cash in because Tomlin is not a 2.63 ERA pitcher. He went 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA in 73 IP for the Tribe last year. Righties whacked him to the tune of a .881 OPS, far too big of a number. His stats also provided a lofty groundball/fly-ball ratio of 28%/50%. These are not the contrarian stats of a winning pitcher or even an average one. Those kinds of numbers eventually become exposed. Whether it is today or not, Tomlin does not warrant the chalk’s role over the superior Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie’s 1-1 record and 0.64 ERA thus far is not to be believed either but he did face the Rangers in one of those games and held them in check. Last year he went through a stretch in which he allowed only seven earned runs over six consecutive starts. Guthrie is 31 and he’s durable, as he has averaged 30 games started and increased his IP each season during that time. Much prefer Baltimore’s solid starter to Cleveland’s imposter. Play: Baltimore +103 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +110 over N.Y. YANKEES
Props to Freddy Garcia for coming back from three straight years of injury to post a near full season at age 34. Garcia is now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and this is not the team nor the stadium that you want to be serving up hangers over the plate against. Due to various off days and rain delays, the Yankees have yet to use their fifth starter but are forced to do so today. In a three-year stretch between ’07-’09, Garcia threw less than 150 innings combined. He was hit hard last season as a member of the White Sox with an ERA close to 5.00 in 157 frames. The Yankees rotation is a mess. Phil Hughes has a dead arm. A.J. Burnett can’t get anyone out. Ivan Nova is a minor-league pitcher and now they’ve slotted in Bartolo Colon. Garcia is a part of that mess. He has no value whatsoever as the chalk as he’s a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound. Derek Holland went 3-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 57 IP at Texas last year. His health is a consideration after missing June/July last year with knee and rotator cuff issues and he did show some rust in 2H, but he did have K/9, hr/9 gains all year and remains a promising work-in-progress. Holland has also had a decent start to the year with a 2.25 ERA after allowing just 12 hits and three ER in 12 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. The Yanks wanted revenge badly yesterday against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last October. They didn’t get it and they’re likely not going to get it here either. Play: Texas +110. Play: Texas +110 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago/COLORADO over 10 +102
The most extreme hitters' park in baseball thanks to its high altitude, Coors Field remains an offensive boon even since the introduction of humidors to keep baseballs from drying out. The park has spacious dimensions that should rob some homers but all that green also makes for easy doubles and triples. No park in baseball has been as hitter-friendly in modern times. Enter Casey Coleman and Jason Hammel. Hammel has made two starts this season and in 11 innings he’s walked four and struck out five. That tells us the ball will be in play today and when you consider that current Cub hitters are batting .366 against Hammel his chances for a good game are slim. Despite being 1-0 this season, Hammel has not looked sharp at all against the Dodgers or Mets. Casey Coleman went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 57 innings last season for the Cubbies. A helpful groundball% punched his ticket to the show, but that GB level isn't elite enough to cover for his intolerable command of the strike zone and very low strikeout rate. Coleman just goes out there and waits for his fielders to make plays and that’s a tough way to survive at this venue or any venue for that matter. All signs point to a four-hour game. Play: Chicago/Colorado over 10 +102 (Risking 2 units).
