MLB's most irreplaceable players
Several stars were injured this April, but which team will be most affected?
Howard Megdal
Special to ESPN Insider
It's been an awful couple of weeks for baseball injuries. On the young season, we've already seen stars Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman go on the disabled list. You can't really replace the production of players on that level, but some of them are more irreplaceable than others.
When determining the most valuable players in baseball, an ever-increasing number of statistical tools are now at our disposal. The most straightforward of these is wins above replacement (WAR). Yet analysis of which players are most valuable often seems to stop at the water's edge of that player's value in a vacuum. In reality, how valuable a player is to his team is determined not just by his own production, but also by how much more production he provides than his team's Plan B at the position. Yes, this means of evaluating penalizes players who play for deep teams, but it is a reality.
If a player has a WAR of 6.0 in a season, and his backup is negative -2.0, that player is more valuable to his team than another player with a WAR of 9.0 whose backup is worth 4.0.
That's why, on this list of the most irreplaceable players in baseball, you won't see Longoria. The estimated full-season dropoff from him to backup Sean Rodriguez is roughly 3.0. That's a lot, but it's not among the five highest in baseball. Hamilton was a big loss for the Rangers this week, but Texas doesn't lose nearly as much as you'd think. Thanks to David Murphy, one of the best fourth outfielders in the game, the dropoff is around 3-4 wins over a full season.
Let's take a closer look at the five most irreplaceable position players in baseball, whose misfortune would provide the most doom when you factor in the quality of the players' backup:
<OFFER>
5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: No one would seriously argue that Fielder is a more valuable player than Albert Pujols. Fielder's career OPS+ is 140, Pujols' is 171.
But should Pujols get hurt, his likely fill-in would be Lance Berkman, whose career OPS+ is 145, 140 the last three seasons, and even 114 in last year's injury-plagued campaign. (Allen Craig, a strong hitter, would step in for Berkman in left field.) The dropoff from Pujols to Berkman is around five wins.
Should Fielder go down, his backups are Erick Almonte, a 33-year-old minor leauge journeyman, and Mark Kotsay, whose calling card, even in his prime, was an outfielder's glove. The scary thing for the Brewers is that Fielder is a free agent this winter, and they'll likely need a long-term replacement very soon.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6 wins)
4. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: 2010 was a down season for Ramirez, with a .300/.378/.475 campaign providing an OPS+ of just 124. Yet more fantasy owners chose him as the first shortstop than anyone else heading into 2011, because even a down year like that is superior to what other shortstops provide. In Ramirez's previous three seasons, he checked in with an OPS+ of 145, 143 and 148.
And if Ramirez is better than the league's starting shortstops, imagine how much better he is than his backup in Florida, Donnie Murphy. The wandering middle infielder has a career .202/.271/.370 hitting line in 442 major league plate appearances, good for a career OPS+ of 70. How irreplaceable is Ramirez? The Marlins fired their manager last year after Ramirez failed to hustle. Florida knew you can find another manager, but another Hanley Ramirez is far more difficult to come by.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6.5 wins)
3. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: On a team with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter, Cano has become the most valuable Yankee in the starting lineup by a decent margin. His .319/.381/.534 line was good for an OPS+ of 142 in 2010, which was tops on the team. Add in tremendous defense at second base, and he'd be hard to replace in any lineup.
But then, look at the options to replace him. Eduardo Nunez is a solid defensive shortstop, and that would presumably translate to the less-demanding position across the second base bag. But with just a .721 OPS and four home runs in Triple-A last year, the vacuum a Cano injury would create for the Yankees would be enormous.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7 wins)
2. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: Minnesota will see first-hand just how awful life will be without Mauer, whose mysterious leg injury landed him on the DL on Thursday. Mauer hit .327/.402/.469 in 2010, and that has to be considered a down year for him. In 2009, his .365/.444/.587 line is among the best seasons any catcher in baseball history has ever enjoyed.
Say this for his backup, Drew Butera: He is quite strong defensively, with 44 percent of would-be basestealers caught on his watch. But his career OPS of .514 in 168 major league plate appearances probably isn't just small sample size skew; his career minor league OPS is .613 in 1,630 plate appearances.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7.5 wins)
1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: There's been no more unfortunate injury in baseball this season than Zimmerman's abdominal strain. The best third baseman in the game put up an OPS+ of 142 to go with superb defense in 2010. He was off to a fast start in 2011, and the hope is he'll return in a couple of weeks.
What exacerbates Zimmerman's absence is backup Alex Cora. There's no decent way to say this: Cora doesn't belong on a major league roster anymore. He is a bright, engaging guy, whose OPS+ last year was 49, and he's now 35 years old. His defense, once a strength, has deteriorated badly, and playing at third base, Cora is actually out of position.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 8.5 wins)
Several stars were injured this April, but which team will be most affected?
Howard Megdal
Special to ESPN Insider
It's been an awful couple of weeks for baseball injuries. On the young season, we've already seen stars Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman go on the disabled list. You can't really replace the production of players on that level, but some of them are more irreplaceable than others.
When determining the most valuable players in baseball, an ever-increasing number of statistical tools are now at our disposal. The most straightforward of these is wins above replacement (WAR). Yet analysis of which players are most valuable often seems to stop at the water's edge of that player's value in a vacuum. In reality, how valuable a player is to his team is determined not just by his own production, but also by how much more production he provides than his team's Plan B at the position. Yes, this means of evaluating penalizes players who play for deep teams, but it is a reality.
If a player has a WAR of 6.0 in a season, and his backup is negative -2.0, that player is more valuable to his team than another player with a WAR of 9.0 whose backup is worth 4.0.
That's why, on this list of the most irreplaceable players in baseball, you won't see Longoria. The estimated full-season dropoff from him to backup Sean Rodriguez is roughly 3.0. That's a lot, but it's not among the five highest in baseball. Hamilton was a big loss for the Rangers this week, but Texas doesn't lose nearly as much as you'd think. Thanks to David Murphy, one of the best fourth outfielders in the game, the dropoff is around 3-4 wins over a full season.
Let's take a closer look at the five most irreplaceable position players in baseball, whose misfortune would provide the most doom when you factor in the quality of the players' backup:
<OFFER>
5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: No one would seriously argue that Fielder is a more valuable player than Albert Pujols. Fielder's career OPS+ is 140, Pujols' is 171.
But should Pujols get hurt, his likely fill-in would be Lance Berkman, whose career OPS+ is 145, 140 the last three seasons, and even 114 in last year's injury-plagued campaign. (Allen Craig, a strong hitter, would step in for Berkman in left field.) The dropoff from Pujols to Berkman is around five wins.
Should Fielder go down, his backups are Erick Almonte, a 33-year-old minor leauge journeyman, and Mark Kotsay, whose calling card, even in his prime, was an outfielder's glove. The scary thing for the Brewers is that Fielder is a free agent this winter, and they'll likely need a long-term replacement very soon.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6 wins)
4. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: 2010 was a down season for Ramirez, with a .300/.378/.475 campaign providing an OPS+ of just 124. Yet more fantasy owners chose him as the first shortstop than anyone else heading into 2011, because even a down year like that is superior to what other shortstops provide. In Ramirez's previous three seasons, he checked in with an OPS+ of 145, 143 and 148.
And if Ramirez is better than the league's starting shortstops, imagine how much better he is than his backup in Florida, Donnie Murphy. The wandering middle infielder has a career .202/.271/.370 hitting line in 442 major league plate appearances, good for a career OPS+ of 70. How irreplaceable is Ramirez? The Marlins fired their manager last year after Ramirez failed to hustle. Florida knew you can find another manager, but another Hanley Ramirez is far more difficult to come by.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6.5 wins)
3. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: On a team with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter, Cano has become the most valuable Yankee in the starting lineup by a decent margin. His .319/.381/.534 line was good for an OPS+ of 142 in 2010, which was tops on the team. Add in tremendous defense at second base, and he'd be hard to replace in any lineup.
But then, look at the options to replace him. Eduardo Nunez is a solid defensive shortstop, and that would presumably translate to the less-demanding position across the second base bag. But with just a .721 OPS and four home runs in Triple-A last year, the vacuum a Cano injury would create for the Yankees would be enormous.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7 wins)
2. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: Minnesota will see first-hand just how awful life will be without Mauer, whose mysterious leg injury landed him on the DL on Thursday. Mauer hit .327/.402/.469 in 2010, and that has to be considered a down year for him. In 2009, his .365/.444/.587 line is among the best seasons any catcher in baseball history has ever enjoyed.
Say this for his backup, Drew Butera: He is quite strong defensively, with 44 percent of would-be basestealers caught on his watch. But his career OPS of .514 in 168 major league plate appearances probably isn't just small sample size skew; his career minor league OPS is .613 in 1,630 plate appearances.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7.5 wins)
1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: There's been no more unfortunate injury in baseball this season than Zimmerman's abdominal strain. The best third baseman in the game put up an OPS+ of 142 to go with superb defense in 2010. He was off to a fast start in 2011, and the hope is he'll return in a couple of weeks.
What exacerbates Zimmerman's absence is backup Alex Cora. There's no decent way to say this: Cora doesn't belong on a major league roster anymore. He is a bright, engaging guy, whose OPS+ last year was 49, and he's now 35 years old. His defense, once a strength, has deteriorated badly, and playing at third base, Cora is actually out of position.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 8.5 wins)
