Whey The Mariners Are Struggling

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A sleepless summer in Seattle
Buster Olney

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The Seattle Mariners were held scoreless on Saturday, the latest sign that their offense may well be worse than it was last season. Already this year, manager Eric Wedge -- who had choice words for his players after the whitewash -- has written Adam Kennedy's name into the cleanup spot in his batting order, because he doesn't have many power hitters and he's presumably trying to give Justin Smoak some room to breathe.


The OPS of the Mariners' cleanup hitters is .501, a number augmented by exactly zero home runs. Seattle's run differential so far this year stands at minus-33, the worst in the majors. Meanwhile, Mariners executives are bracing themselves for some brutal attendance figures, as Larry Stone writes.


All of this failure will fuel two inevitable questions.


No. 1: Will General Manager Jack Zduriencik survive?
The Chone Figgins signing hasn't panned out for the Mariners, for sure, and Brandon Morrow thrived in his first season after Seattle traded him. But beyond those two moves, it's hard to identify many mistakes -- because Zduriencik hasn't had a lot of flexibility to spend money, given the contracts of Carlos Silva et al. and because the organization had so little talent when he arrived. What has skewed the perception of Zduriencik's time with the team is that fragile success of the Mariners in 2009, when Seattle managed to win 85 games despite ranking 28th in runs scored.
<OFFER>If the Mariners had won 70 games that year, then the perception of the task in front of Zduriencik would be more transparent: He is essentially in the same place that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is, trying to accumulate enough high-end talent to turn Seattle around. The Mariners' payroll is significantly higher than that of the Pirates, but remember, 35 percent of that is tied into the iconic Ichiro Suzuki, who is paid high-impact dollars but is not really an impact player (he currently ranks 56th in OPS among outfielders), and to the Silva/Milton Bradley contracts, linked to a signing by the previous regime.


A rival general manager mused over Seattle's situation the other day and noted that there is talent coming together. Within 18 months, he said, the Mariners could have a core of Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Anthony Rendon (if he falls to the No. 2 pick in the June draft), Smoak and Dustin Ackley. "That's pretty good," the GM concluded. "There is progress."


But this summer will be ugly: The losses will mount, the seats will be empty and time will tell whether that will gnaw on the club's leadership to the point that Zduriencik becomes a scapegoat.


Question No. 2: Will Hernandez run out of patience?
Zack Greinke essentially forced his way out of Kansas City with his indifference last summer, and as Greinke slogged along through a mediocre season, King Felix was a model of competitiveness, battling opponents with virtually no run support, maintaining his focus so well that he was eventually rewarded with the AL Cy Young Award. It was, in many respects, one of the great performances we have seen in the last decade.


But Hernandez is not pitching well so far this year, and some rival scouts are detecting early frustration in the right-hander -- they wonder if the losing and the constant stress of pitching with no margin for error and mostly pitching for nothing but pride, is taking its toll on him. Hernandez has a 4.33 ERA after four starts and opponents are hitting .282 against him. "He looks distracted to me," said one scout. "Something is not right."


What rival scouts and executives see in Hernandez's intensity and effort really doesn't matter; it matters is what Seattle is seeing from him, daily. In a conversation in early February, Hernandez -- one of two Mariners who lives in Seattle in the offseason -- said flatly that he's committed to the organization and wants to do everything he can to help the team win.


If the Mariners' decision-makers determine for themselves that Hernandez is getting fed up and bored with the losing, then the best time to trade him will be this summer. His value is extraordinary, and similarly, their trade leverage will never be higher, because of what he would immediately mean to any interested team, whether it be the Yankees or the Braves (who could put together a heck of an offer) or the Red Sox.


Trading Hernandez would anger Seattle's fan base, for sure. But there's no need to worry about that, because M's fans are already staying away from Safeco Field; what the Mariners' leadership should choose is the best and most efficient path to on-field success -- whether that's with Hernandez, or with the huge cache of prospects it would get for him.


If the Mariners start winning again, Seattle will support the team; they have demonstrated this in the past.


Will Zduriencik be a part of that? Will King Felix?


We'll see.


By the way: Franklin Gutierrez is not getting better, and the Mariners are seeking another opinion about his stomach troubles, as Geoff Baker writes.


• Luis Salazar, the manager who lost an eye in spring training because of a foul ball, returned to his post, as Jill Vejnoska writes.


• The third team to register 10 wins this season: the Kansas City Royals, who shut out the Mariners. The fourth: the Cleveland Indians, who shut down the Orioles to extend their winning streak; they have a strong bullpen and will get back Grady Sizemore in the hours ahead.


I'm still not sure whether the Royals having staying power this season; I'm starting to think the Indians do, because of Justin Masterson's improvement, Josh Tomlin's steady presence in the middle of their rotation and because the Cleveland bullpen appears to be pretty good; the Indians' relief corps has posted a 3.08 ERA so far this year.


Kansas City's strong start is inspiring cautious optimism, writes Sam Mellinger. The Royals' bullpen has been lights out.


<HR style="WIDTH: 50%" target="new">Ned Colletti has been in baseball for three decades and this spring, and for the first time, a young player asked him about what it takes to be a leader.


That player was Jerry Sands, the Los Angeles Dodgers' young outfielder who is tearing up Class AAA, hitting .432 with five homers for Albuquerque, which fits everything Colletti had heard about him. A year ago, when the 25th-round draft pick was in Class AA, Colletti asked Bill Mueller and Mark Sweeney, two of his staffers, to report back on Sands's approach at the plate. "I asked them to look at his thought process as a hitter," Colletti said. "They both came back and absolutely raved about him -- how he thought, how he prepared for his at-bats, everything."


Sands played well in spring training, before his strong start in the minors this year. The Dodgers have demonstrated in the past that they will promote players in spite of the service time advantages gleaned from waiting: Andre Ethier made his debut on May 2nd, 2006.


But what Los Angeles could be waiting for is for Sands to deal with his first failure of this season, his first slump; teams typically like to have their prospects work their way through some struggles before promoting them, so that they reach the big leagues with some internal mechanisms in place to cope with the inevitable problems. No matter how much talent a player has, there in no such thing as a seamless life in the majors, as Stephen Strasburg would testify.


The Dodgers may not be able to wait much longer, however. They are drifting deeper into the standings behind the Rockies and Giants -- they're now 5.5 games behind -- and they are starved for run production, especially from left field: L.A.'s left fielders haven't generated a homer this year. The Dodgers' losing streak has reached five games. "If I can't wait," said Colletti, "then I won't wait."


Whenever Sands does establish himself, Colletti expects that he will be a leader -- because of the way he plays and expresses himself. "You don't see that kind of thing very often," Colletti said.


• The plan of the Cardinals' front office was to improve the team by bolstering the St. Louis offense -- and this blueprint has manifested in the last week, after Matt Holliday returned to the lineup. The Cardinals crushed Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers and have now racked up 60 runs in their last seven games. This was without Lance Berkman, who got a day off.


• Watched some of the Astros' win over the Padres and the winning pitcher, in the end, was Mark Melancon, who faced one hitter and benefitted from a diving catch by -- of all folks -- Carlos Lee. But Melancon has thrown well for Houston, and thrown strikes, something he did not do when he was summoned to the big leagues by the New York Yankees. New York staffers were always perplexed by Melancon, who has good stuff and threw strikes in the minors, but then always struggled when called up. So far this year, he's issued one walk in nine appearances.


Dings and dents

1. The Phillies' rainout Saturday will give Roy Oswalt extra time to rest his back.

2. Jake Peavy is making progress, as Dave van Dyck writes.
3. Alex Rodriguez hurt his back.
4. Jason Bay could be back as soon as Tuesday.
5. Hong-Chih Kuo was placed on the DL.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Frank McCourt needed a loan to meet the Dodgers' payroll obligations, writes Bill Shaikin.

2. The slumping Kelly Johnson was benched.

Saturday's games

1. Watched some of the Braves' sweep of the Mets and Jair Jurrjens commanded the ball very well in his first start of the season -- albeit without the old 93-94 mph fastball.

2. Starlin Castro was The Man for the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan writes. From Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats and Info: "Castro had four hits Saturday, including what turned out to be the game-winning three-run home run in the seventh inning. According to Pitch F/X, three of Castro's four hits, including the home run, came against fastballs, a pitch Castro has had success with this season, hitting 15-for-34 (.441) against it. This was the fourth four-hit game of his career Saturday - in his 139th game. He is the first player to have four four-hit games in his first 139 career games since Willy Taveras in 2005."
Castro has thrived in the leadoff position this season:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Starlin Castro by Batting Order Position, 2011 Season

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Stat</TH><TH>1st</TH><TH>All Others</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Games</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>BA</TD><TD>.536</TD><TD>.286</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>H-AB</TD><TD>15-28</TD><TD>10-35</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Runs</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>RBI</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 1 -->
3. Josh Beckett had another strong start, on a day when Carl Crawford was out of the lineup. From Stats and Info, how Beckett won:
A) He worked down in the strike zone. On at-bats that ended on pitches "down," the Jays were 0-11 with six strikeouts.
B) He started each of his seven innings by retiring the leadoff man and went to three-ball counts to just three of the 26 batters he faced.
C) His offspeed dominance. Beckett only allowed three hits and all of them came against fastballs. The Jays were 0-6 with 3 strikeouts in at-bats ending with curveballs and 0-1 against the changeup.
• Hitters are 0-26 on at-bats that end with an offspeed pitch from Josh Beckett this season, including 12 strikeouts.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Josh Beckett Opponent Batting Average Last Two Seasons by Pitch Type

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pitch</TH><TH>2010</TH><TH>2011</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Fastball</TD><TD>.303</TD><TD>.238</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Curveball</TD><TD>.233</TD><TD>.000<<</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Changeup</TD><TD>.308</TD><TD>.000<<</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=3>>>Curveball 0-17, Changeup 0-9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 2 -->
4. The Reds continue to roll. The franchise goal is to draw three million, says Bob Castellini.
5. You can't stop the Rays, you can only hope to contain them: Johnny Damon got another big hit, as Marc Topkin writes. He is Tampa Bay's first rock star, writes John Romano.
6. Tyler Chatwood was The Man for the Angels. Mike Scioscia likes what Hank Conger is doing behind the plate. How Chatwood won:
A) With his fastball. Held White Sox hitters to a 3-for-17 (.176) performance on at-bats that ended with a heater.
B) He pitched inside. On at-bats that ended on an "inside" pitch, the White Sox were 1-10 (.100).
C) He threw strikes. Chatwood faced 24 hitters and only three saw three-ball counts.
7. The Diamondbacks have dropped three straight, and counting.
8. A bad inning cost Justin Verlander, as John Lowe writes.
9. A Toronto pitcher got pounded, as Mike Rutsey writes.
10. The Mets are having a Murphy's Law kind of season: They were swept in a doubleheader for the second time in three days, and their most effective starting pitcher was placed on the disabled list.
11. Freddy Garcia was dazzling in his first start of the season. He provides a template for others, writes Ken Davidoff.
12. The Rockies' winning streak came to an end, as they struggled to get a big hit.
13. Nothing is working for the Orioles these days; Jeremy Guthrie lost Saturday.
14. Derek Holland's strong effort was spoiled, writes Jeff Wilson.
15. The Twins had late-inning problems again, and right now, Minnesota has the worst offense in the majors, having scored the fewest runs.
16. Mat Latos lost again.
17. Barry Zito got hurt, but the Giants still won. He was on crutches after the game.
18. Dallas Braden pitched the Athletics to a win, before he came out with a stiff shoulder. This doesn't sound good.
19. The Pirates' pitchers left the ball up in the strike zone; James McDonald's ERA is 7.47, as Bill Brink writes. <!-- begin inline 3 -->
Impatience Index

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Hitter</TH><TH>PA</TH><TH>No. Pitches</TH><TH>P per PA</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>David Ortiz</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>6.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Austin Jackson</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>6.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kosuke Fukudome</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>6.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kyle McClellan</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>6.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Howie Kendrick</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>5.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brad Hawpe</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>5.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ryan Langerhans</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>5.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brian McCann</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>5.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Justin Upton</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>5.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Danny Valencia</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>5.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 3 -->

Other stuff

• Dusty Baker thinks baseball could do without radar guns, writes Hal McCoy.

• Jesus Montero had a bad spring, but now he is killing the ball in Triple-A.
Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler have been struggling.
• For the Rockies' pitching, the best is yet to come, writes Dave Krieger.
• The Marlins' bullpen, which has been outstanding, got a day off, because of rain.
Brett Myers is now a craftsman, writes Richard Justice.
Alfonso Soriano is on pace for 50 homers, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
• The Mets won't have to look far for investors, writes Richard Sandomir.
• Jim Riggleman talked about the team's strength.
• The Brewers' pitchers got another day of rest.
• Milwaukee is shifting its defense this year, writes Tom Haudricourt.
Mike Gonzalez says he'll work through his struggles.
Brian Wilson is throwing a two-seam fastball now.
Brennan Boesch has become more effective at hitting with two strikes, writes Tom Gage.
• A prospect acquired by the Phillies in their trade of Cliff Lee has gotten better, writes Bob Brookover.
Yunel Escobar is eager to prove himself with the Jays.
• This story -- the whys of it -- is fascinating.
 

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