Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.90 Units
Last 30 Days 22 24 0 +2.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 22 24 0 +2.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cleveland +111 over KANSAS CITY
The Indians are now 12-4, they’ve won four in a row after a recent seven-game winning streak and in two games since returning from a lengthy stint on the DL, Grady Sizemore is 5 for 9 with two doubles, a homer and two RBIs. The Indians are also 5-1 against southpaws and will face one here in Bruce Chen. Chen is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA but don’t buy into it. In his last game against the Mariners, Chen went eight full innings and struck out one batter. Everything the M’s hit (they hit every ball) was right at someone. There is nothing that stands out about Chen in his beneath the surface stats and we expect a noticeable decline in his surface stats. Chen’s groundball/fly-ball ratio is 38%/54%. His xERA is 4.97. Big warning signs say Chen is unlikely to find the same magic that allowed him to outpitch his typically mediocre skills again in 2011. Jeanmar Gomez went 4-5 with a 4.68 ERA in 57.2 IP for the Indians last year. He had four good starts to begin his MLB career, but then things went south. He gets his second crack at the majors after a strong start at AAA-Columbus in which he posted a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 11 K/3 BB in 12.2 frames. He’s obviously improved his craft and thus, we much prefer and up n comer to the overrated veteran. Play: Cleveland +111 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –104 over TAMPA BAY
With three consecutive seasons of double-digit wins and a sub-4.00 ERA, John Danks seems like he should be getting more attention. Is this the year he gets noticed? The good news, in terms of the price, is that Danks is still pitching under the radar. He’s 0-1 in three starts but he’s pitched well enough to have at least two wins and maybe three. He’s been outstanding against righties and the Rays are 0-2 at home against lefties. Danks's bullpen stuck him with a no-decision after a fantastic start Wednesday against the Athletics. Danks went eight innings, allowing only one run on five hits and striking out seven. He owns a 3.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after three starts and he continues to be one of the most consistent and reliable starters in the league. James Shields has had nothing but grief against the Chisox his entire career with a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Current Sox hitters have 162 career AB’s against Shields and they’ve already seen him once this season. In that game Shields went six full and did not whiff a single batter. He also surrendered five runs and allowed eight hits with three of those knocks going yard. Shields can’t fool this foe while his counterpart should dazzle. Play: Chicago –107 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 22 24 0 +2.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 22 24 0 +2.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cleveland +111 over KANSAS CITY
The Indians are now 12-4, they’ve won four in a row after a recent seven-game winning streak and in two games since returning from a lengthy stint on the DL, Grady Sizemore is 5 for 9 with two doubles, a homer and two RBIs. The Indians are also 5-1 against southpaws and will face one here in Bruce Chen. Chen is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA but don’t buy into it. In his last game against the Mariners, Chen went eight full innings and struck out one batter. Everything the M’s hit (they hit every ball) was right at someone. There is nothing that stands out about Chen in his beneath the surface stats and we expect a noticeable decline in his surface stats. Chen’s groundball/fly-ball ratio is 38%/54%. His xERA is 4.97. Big warning signs say Chen is unlikely to find the same magic that allowed him to outpitch his typically mediocre skills again in 2011. Jeanmar Gomez went 4-5 with a 4.68 ERA in 57.2 IP for the Indians last year. He had four good starts to begin his MLB career, but then things went south. He gets his second crack at the majors after a strong start at AAA-Columbus in which he posted a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 11 K/3 BB in 12.2 frames. He’s obviously improved his craft and thus, we much prefer and up n comer to the overrated veteran. Play: Cleveland +111 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –104 over TAMPA BAY
With three consecutive seasons of double-digit wins and a sub-4.00 ERA, John Danks seems like he should be getting more attention. Is this the year he gets noticed? The good news, in terms of the price, is that Danks is still pitching under the radar. He’s 0-1 in three starts but he’s pitched well enough to have at least two wins and maybe three. He’s been outstanding against righties and the Rays are 0-2 at home against lefties. Danks's bullpen stuck him with a no-decision after a fantastic start Wednesday against the Athletics. Danks went eight innings, allowing only one run on five hits and striking out seven. He owns a 3.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after three starts and he continues to be one of the most consistent and reliable starters in the league. James Shields has had nothing but grief against the Chisox his entire career with a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Current Sox hitters have 162 career AB’s against Shields and they’ve already seen him once this season. In that game Shields went six full and did not whiff a single batter. He also surrendered five runs and allowed eight hits with three of those knocks going yard. Shields can’t fool this foe while his counterpart should dazzle. Play: Chicago –107 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
