The numbers behind shift strategies
Teams shift against Adrian Gonzalez, but other candidates should be considered first
Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
ESPN Insider
When Adrian Gonzalez stepped to the plate in his first game against the Cleveland Indians this year, he faced something only a handful of hitters witness on a regular basis: a defensive shift.
Gonzalez fits the profile of a typical shift candidate: he bats left-handed, hits for power and plays first base. In fact, the top 12 most shifted hitters are all first basemen or designated hitters (13th is Brian McCann, with 40 shifts last season). Of course, only one of those qualities really has any relevance to the optimal defensive alignment.
Last year, left-handed hitters pulled 72 percent of ground balls to the right side of second base. The more loft a hitter gets on a ball, the more likely he'll push it to the opposite field. Lefties pulled only about 40 percent of fly balls in 2010, and similar statements can be made about right-handed hitters' pull tendencies.
When Gonzalez walks to the plate, the defense shouldn't care what position he plays or how often he hits opposite-field home runs; they only need to know where Gonzalez is most likely to hit the balls that stay in the park. An infield shifting on Gonzalez is expecting him to hit a disproportionate number of ground balls to the right side.
<OFFER>
Gonzalez has openly questioned the use of a shift against him, claiming to hit more than his share of balls to the opposite field. The typical shifted hitter pulls more than 80 percent of grounders, led by Carlos Pena and Jack Cust at 89 percent. As it turns out, Gonzalez pulled 76 percent of grounders last year, slightly more than the average lefty at 72 percent but far below the rate of a more typical shift candidate.
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Gettin' shifty with it
Most frequently shifted hitters, 2010
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Balls In Play vs. Shift</TH><TH>Ground ball pull percentage</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Ryan Howard</TD><TD>202</TD><TD>83%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>David Ortiz</TD><TD>197</TD><TD>80%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adam Dunn</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>86%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Carlos Pena</TD><TD>134</TD><TD>89%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adrian Gonzalez</TD><TD>114</TD><TD>76%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Prince Fielder</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>75%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jim Thome</TD><TD>99</TD><TD>76%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mark Teixeira</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>82%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jack Cust</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>89%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Russell Branyan</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>81%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Out of the 114 balls Gonzalez put in play against the shift last year, 15 of them were grounded to the left side and exactly six of those went for hits. Does it make sense to employ a shift against the new Red Sox slugger?
Well, if you're considering shifting Gonzalez, there are a few other candidates you should consider first. Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn fit the profile of a traditional shift candidate, but what about Colby Rasmus or Ben Zobrist? Both pull at least 82 percent of their grounders, among the 10 most extreme pull lefties, and neither of them was shifted even once last year.
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Hitting it right
Biggest left-handed pull hitters, 2010 (minimum 300 balls in play)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Ground ball pull percentage</TH><TH>Balls in play vs. shift</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Carlos Pena</TD><TD>89%</TD><TD>134</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adam Dunn</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>170</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adam LaRoche</TD><TD>84%</TD><TD>34</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Colby Rasmus</TD><TD>83%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Garrett Jones</TD><TD>83%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ryan Howard</TD><TD>83%</TD><TD>202</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Aubrey Huff</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>32</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ben Zobrist</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Raul Ibanez</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Curtis Granderson</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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In the case of pull-happy lefties like Rasmus and Zobrist, teams would be wise to look beyond the traditional shift profile and focus on their batted ball tendencies. The players on this list are all better shift candidates than sluggers like Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, who pull a smaller percentage of ground balls.
Teams traditionally avoid shifting right-handed hitters because the first baseman needs to stay anchored to his base. However, if the hitter pulls enough ground balls, the shift might be justified. The Tampa Bay Rays repositioned their infield against former Yankee Marcus Thames on several occasions last year, and the Pittsburgh Pirates toyed with a realignment against Albert Pujols. Not coincidentally, the three-time MVP is the biggest pull hitter among right-handed batters.
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Hitting it left
Biggest right-handed pull hitters, 2010 (minimum 300 balls in play)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Ground ball pull percentage</TH><TH>Balls in play vs. shift</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Albert Pujols</TD><TD>89%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brandon Inge</TD><TD>88%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chris Young</TD><TD>87%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>John Buc</TD><TD>87%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kevin Youkilis</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jorge Cantu</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Drew Stubbs</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Alex Gonzalez</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pedro Feliz</TD><TD>85%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Matt Kemp</TD><TD>85%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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While the Rays have been the most aggressive shifting team the past few seasons, Ron Roenicke's Milwaukee Brewers squad is likely to blow away the field in 2011. After the Brewers applied the fewest shifts in MLB last season, the new Milwaukee manager has implemented more than twice as many shifts as any other manager so far this year. Acknowledging his infield's immobility (Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee have all rated at or near the bottom of their respective positions, according to defensive runs saved), Roenicke consults spray charts to position his fielders in the most advantageous alignments against each batter.
As a result, the Brewers have employed shifts against many of the players you'd expect (such as Ryan Howard), and some of the players you wouldn't, including Jay Bruce, Ryan Doumit and Neil Walker. Roenicke also isn't afraid to shift against right-handed hitters, employing the tactic multiple times against Dan Uggla, Geovany Soto, and Steve Pearce.
Time will tell if the Brewers' strategy is successful; however, it's certainly refreshing to see another team make an aggressive attempt to improve the results on the field.
Teams shift against Adrian Gonzalez, but other candidates should be considered first
Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
ESPN Insider
When Adrian Gonzalez stepped to the plate in his first game against the Cleveland Indians this year, he faced something only a handful of hitters witness on a regular basis: a defensive shift.
Gonzalez fits the profile of a typical shift candidate: he bats left-handed, hits for power and plays first base. In fact, the top 12 most shifted hitters are all first basemen or designated hitters (13th is Brian McCann, with 40 shifts last season). Of course, only one of those qualities really has any relevance to the optimal defensive alignment.
Last year, left-handed hitters pulled 72 percent of ground balls to the right side of second base. The more loft a hitter gets on a ball, the more likely he'll push it to the opposite field. Lefties pulled only about 40 percent of fly balls in 2010, and similar statements can be made about right-handed hitters' pull tendencies.
When Gonzalez walks to the plate, the defense shouldn't care what position he plays or how often he hits opposite-field home runs; they only need to know where Gonzalez is most likely to hit the balls that stay in the park. An infield shifting on Gonzalez is expecting him to hit a disproportionate number of ground balls to the right side.
<OFFER>
Gonzalez has openly questioned the use of a shift against him, claiming to hit more than his share of balls to the opposite field. The typical shifted hitter pulls more than 80 percent of grounders, led by Carlos Pena and Jack Cust at 89 percent. As it turns out, Gonzalez pulled 76 percent of grounders last year, slightly more than the average lefty at 72 percent but far below the rate of a more typical shift candidate.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Gettin' shifty with it
Most frequently shifted hitters, 2010
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Balls In Play vs. Shift</TH><TH>Ground ball pull percentage</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Ryan Howard</TD><TD>202</TD><TD>83%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>David Ortiz</TD><TD>197</TD><TD>80%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adam Dunn</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>86%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Carlos Pena</TD><TD>134</TD><TD>89%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adrian Gonzalez</TD><TD>114</TD><TD>76%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Prince Fielder</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>75%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jim Thome</TD><TD>99</TD><TD>76%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mark Teixeira</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>82%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jack Cust</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>89%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Russell Branyan</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>81%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Out of the 114 balls Gonzalez put in play against the shift last year, 15 of them were grounded to the left side and exactly six of those went for hits. Does it make sense to employ a shift against the new Red Sox slugger?
Well, if you're considering shifting Gonzalez, there are a few other candidates you should consider first. Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn fit the profile of a traditional shift candidate, but what about Colby Rasmus or Ben Zobrist? Both pull at least 82 percent of their grounders, among the 10 most extreme pull lefties, and neither of them was shifted even once last year.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Hitting it right
Biggest left-handed pull hitters, 2010 (minimum 300 balls in play)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Ground ball pull percentage</TH><TH>Balls in play vs. shift</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Carlos Pena</TD><TD>89%</TD><TD>134</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adam Dunn</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>170</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adam LaRoche</TD><TD>84%</TD><TD>34</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Colby Rasmus</TD><TD>83%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Garrett Jones</TD><TD>83%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ryan Howard</TD><TD>83%</TD><TD>202</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Aubrey Huff</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>32</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ben Zobrist</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Raul Ibanez</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Curtis Granderson</TD><TD>82%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->
In the case of pull-happy lefties like Rasmus and Zobrist, teams would be wise to look beyond the traditional shift profile and focus on their batted ball tendencies. The players on this list are all better shift candidates than sluggers like Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, who pull a smaller percentage of ground balls.
Teams traditionally avoid shifting right-handed hitters because the first baseman needs to stay anchored to his base. However, if the hitter pulls enough ground balls, the shift might be justified. The Tampa Bay Rays repositioned their infield against former Yankee Marcus Thames on several occasions last year, and the Pittsburgh Pirates toyed with a realignment against Albert Pujols. Not coincidentally, the three-time MVP is the biggest pull hitter among right-handed batters.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->
Hitting it left
Biggest right-handed pull hitters, 2010 (minimum 300 balls in play)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Ground ball pull percentage</TH><TH>Balls in play vs. shift</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Albert Pujols</TD><TD>89%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brandon Inge</TD><TD>88%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chris Young</TD><TD>87%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>John Buc</TD><TD>87%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kevin Youkilis</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jorge Cantu</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Drew Stubbs</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Alex Gonzalez</TD><TD>86%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pedro Feliz</TD><TD>85%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Matt Kemp</TD><TD>85%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
While the Rays have been the most aggressive shifting team the past few seasons, Ron Roenicke's Milwaukee Brewers squad is likely to blow away the field in 2011. After the Brewers applied the fewest shifts in MLB last season, the new Milwaukee manager has implemented more than twice as many shifts as any other manager so far this year. Acknowledging his infield's immobility (Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee have all rated at or near the bottom of their respective positions, according to defensive runs saved), Roenicke consults spray charts to position his fielders in the most advantageous alignments against each batter.
As a result, the Brewers have employed shifts against many of the players you'd expect (such as Ryan Howard), and some of the players you wouldn't, including Jay Bruce, Ryan Doumit and Neil Walker. Roenicke also isn't afraid to shift against right-handed hitters, employing the tactic multiple times against Dan Uggla, Geovany Soto, and Steve Pearce.
Time will tell if the Brewers' strategy is successful; however, it's certainly refreshing to see another team make an aggressive attempt to improve the results on the field.
