3 Monday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


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Milwaukee +132 over ATLANTA
When a pitcher puts together a good or bad three-week stretch in the middle of July it gets lost in the season stats. When it happens in the first month of the season it gets magnified and that’s certainly the case with Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo has allowed 35 hits and 21 earned runs over his last 21 IP covering just four starts. That’s ugly indeed but there’s no reason for concern yet because he has not lost any velocity and his pitches have not lacked movement. Gallardo’s groundball profile is still strong and everything in his skill set suggests there is nothing wrong with him. He’s missing his spots and that’s an adjustment issue. Gallardo has electric stuff. He’s whiffed over 200 batters twice in his young career and he had an electric spring. He also threw a two-hit shutout against these Braves in his second start of the year this season. Milwaukee leads the NL with a .473 SLG over the past week and will face Jair Jurrjens. Leg issues (hamstring, torn meniscus) sidelined him for May, June and most of September. Count Jurrjens among those players seeking redemption in 2011. Jurrjens seemingly broke out two seasons ago with 14 wins, a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, only to break down last year - literally and figuratively - as he was derailed both by injury and poor performance. He’s made three starts this year and on paper they were all terrific but the three starts came in San Diego, in L.A and at home against the Mets and that trifecta could make any pitcher in this league look good. In those three starts, Jurrjens strand rate was an unsustainable 91%. His xERA has been on the rise for the past two seasons and exceeded his actual ERA by almost two runs in 2009. He’s a serviceable SP, but don't look for 2009 again and now he’ll get his toughest assignment to date x 10. Play: Milwaukee +132 (Risking 2 units).


Texas +105 over OAKLAND
3:35 PM EST. Derek Holland doesn't have eye-popping surface stats (5.12 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), but his underlying skills have been fantastic. He’s struck out 27 in 32 IP and he has a 49%/32% groundball/flyball rate. They have helped to produce his 3.39 xERA, which is in the top 20 among SP with at least 20 IP. Holland is throwing his change-up 30% of the time, up from 11% last season. He has increased the velocity and movement on his fastball, which has averaged 93 MPH so far this season. It's early, but Holland's adjustments are exciting and his ERA away from that mine-field in Texas is 3.29. Holland is undervalued and his chances of throwing a gem in Oakland against the A’s are good. Brandon McCarthy is 1-2 with a 3.97 ERA, which isn’t awful but the A’s have won just one of his five starts. He’s also benefited from pitching three of his five starts at Seattle, at Minnesota and at home against the Tigers. Despite that, his BAA is .297 and his strand rate of 78% cannot be maintained. He allowed 14 hits in 5.1 frames in his last start in L.A. against the Halos and let’s not forget his career ERA of 4.48. McCarthy has always been average and what we get here is a tag with the better pitcher and far superior offense. Play: Texas +105 (Risking 2 units).

Baltimore +106 over CHICAGO
The White Sox are reeling everywhere. They’ve scored four or less runs in 17 of their last 18 games. The pitching staff ranks last in the AL with 149 runs allowed. They’ve been swept three times already this year and they’re going for four here. Brent Lillibridge is the only batter hitting over .300. Mark Buehrle has lost his last three starts, allowing 13 runs and 24 hits in 17.2 innings. Buehrle has traditionally outperformed his skills to post tolerable ERA’s but his across-the-board skills decline threatens Buehrle's ERA more than ever before. His ability to continue to outperform xERA is clearly in question. Current O’s batters are hitting a robust .355 off Buehrle in 166 career AB’s against him and that’s when he was sharper. Buehrle is not a SP worth investing in and he’s even less appealing laying juice when his team is seeing BB’s. Jeremy Guthrie is hit and miss. He can throw a gem or get rocked in any start. The good news is that he has pinpoint control to go along with a BAA of .250 and a solid ERA of 2.53. Those numbers that Guthrie has posted thus far are unlikely to last but that’s a discussion for another time because this one is all about wagering against the brutal combination of Mark Buehrle and the South Side. Play: Baltimore +106 (Risking 2 units).

**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
 
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Write or wrong, I love the write-ups. You have to use your own knowledge along with others picks...not just somebody else's picks alone. At least that is what I do. Keep the plays coming. I enjoy them.
 

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