Yesterday 0 3 0 -6.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 39 0 -1.32 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 35 44 0 -7.94 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
NY Yankees –1½ +103 over DETROIT
The Tigers have scored 23 runs in their last eight games. Over that stretch they’ve struck out 70 times and walked 18. That’s the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the majors. For the season, Detroit’s top three hitters in the batting order are ranked 29th in BA, dead last in runs scored, 29th in OBP and 30th in walks. Now the Tigers will face C.C. Sabathia after losing their seventh straight game. They couldn’t win with Justin Verlander on the mound last night and tonight they’ll have to rely on Brad Penny to snap their funk. Penny has walked 15 and struck out 19 in 35 IP. He’s also allowed 24 ER for an ERA of 6.11 and chances are he’s not going to fool the Yanks. In fact, current Yankees are hitting .336 off Penny with 40 hits in 119 career AB’s. Eight of those 40 hits have gone yard. CC Sabathia needs no introduction. He’s 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and has whiffed 36 in 40 IP while walking just 11. Sabathia is a legit ace. Yanks look to roll over Tigers here. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +103 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +155 over TAMPA BAY
Tag on Wade Davis is too high. His 2.73 ERA is a complete farce when you consider that he’s a fly-ball pitcher and has a low strikeout rate. In 33 frames, Davis has 15 K’s and 11 walks. His groundball/flyball ratio is 38%/45%. His ERA is low due to an unsustainable strand rate of 78% and a 0.3 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher, don't be surprised if he begins to allow HR in bunches, resulting in a rapid rise in his ERA and the Blue Jays are a good HR hitting team to trigger it. The Rays aren’t hitting at home with a .222 BA and .368 Slugging %. With a 5.48 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, it's not surprising that manager John Farrell says that Reyes might be pitching for his slot in the starting rotation. Reyes has the stuff to be effective but he must throw strikes. He’s struck out 19 batters in 23 IP and at age 26 there is still lots of upside here. Reyes is a risk for sure but this one is more about playing against a seriously overvalued Wade Davis. Play: Toronto +155 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI/Houston over 8½
This series could turn into a slugfest beginning with this one. J.A. Happ generated plenty of doubt with a sub-3.00 ERA in his rookie season in Philadelphia. Happ's benefited from relatively low hit rates and high strand rates each of the past two seasons, helping him outpitch his xERA. We need more proof than 300 IP that he can sustain those levels. He also has a 53% flyball rate and his BB/K ratio is awful (14/20). When you combine low command with a high flyball rate at this notorious homer-friendly venue, you’re asking for big trouble. Happ is also a southpaw and the Reds have thrived versus lefties all season. In fact, they’re hitting a combined .345 against lefties with an off-the-charts .1011 OPS. The Reds have scored an average of 8.5 runs per game this season in support of Mike Leake and they've pushed across at least seven runs in each of his four starts. The Cinci could go over this total on its own tonight. The Astros are having a good year at the plate also. They rank sixth in the majors with a team BA of .268. They’ve stolen 24 bases while only getting caught three times. The Astros have scored 122 runs, which is a run less than the Rockies and two runs less than the Marlins. They’ll face a tough Mike Leake but Leake is usually good for allowing three or four runs and both these pens are average or below. Play: Cincinnati/Houston over 8½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 34 39 0 -1.32 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 35 44 0 -7.94 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
NY Yankees –1½ +103 over DETROIT
The Tigers have scored 23 runs in their last eight games. Over that stretch they’ve struck out 70 times and walked 18. That’s the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the majors. For the season, Detroit’s top three hitters in the batting order are ranked 29th in BA, dead last in runs scored, 29th in OBP and 30th in walks. Now the Tigers will face C.C. Sabathia after losing their seventh straight game. They couldn’t win with Justin Verlander on the mound last night and tonight they’ll have to rely on Brad Penny to snap their funk. Penny has walked 15 and struck out 19 in 35 IP. He’s also allowed 24 ER for an ERA of 6.11 and chances are he’s not going to fool the Yanks. In fact, current Yankees are hitting .336 off Penny with 40 hits in 119 career AB’s. Eight of those 40 hits have gone yard. CC Sabathia needs no introduction. He’s 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and has whiffed 36 in 40 IP while walking just 11. Sabathia is a legit ace. Yanks look to roll over Tigers here. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +103 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +155 over TAMPA BAY
Tag on Wade Davis is too high. His 2.73 ERA is a complete farce when you consider that he’s a fly-ball pitcher and has a low strikeout rate. In 33 frames, Davis has 15 K’s and 11 walks. His groundball/flyball ratio is 38%/45%. His ERA is low due to an unsustainable strand rate of 78% and a 0.3 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher, don't be surprised if he begins to allow HR in bunches, resulting in a rapid rise in his ERA and the Blue Jays are a good HR hitting team to trigger it. The Rays aren’t hitting at home with a .222 BA and .368 Slugging %. With a 5.48 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, it's not surprising that manager John Farrell says that Reyes might be pitching for his slot in the starting rotation. Reyes has the stuff to be effective but he must throw strikes. He’s struck out 19 batters in 23 IP and at age 26 there is still lots of upside here. Reyes is a risk for sure but this one is more about playing against a seriously overvalued Wade Davis. Play: Toronto +155 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI/Houston over 8½
This series could turn into a slugfest beginning with this one. J.A. Happ generated plenty of doubt with a sub-3.00 ERA in his rookie season in Philadelphia. Happ's benefited from relatively low hit rates and high strand rates each of the past two seasons, helping him outpitch his xERA. We need more proof than 300 IP that he can sustain those levels. He also has a 53% flyball rate and his BB/K ratio is awful (14/20). When you combine low command with a high flyball rate at this notorious homer-friendly venue, you’re asking for big trouble. Happ is also a southpaw and the Reds have thrived versus lefties all season. In fact, they’re hitting a combined .345 against lefties with an off-the-charts .1011 OPS. The Reds have scored an average of 8.5 runs per game this season in support of Mike Leake and they've pushed across at least seven runs in each of his four starts. The Cinci could go over this total on its own tonight. The Astros are having a good year at the plate also. They rank sixth in the majors with a team BA of .268. They’ve stolen 24 bases while only getting caught three times. The Astros have scored 122 runs, which is a run less than the Rockies and two runs less than the Marlins. They’ll face a tough Mike Leake but Leake is usually good for allowing three or four runs and both these pens are average or below. Play: Cincinnati/Houston over 8½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
