2011 'Expert' MLB Plays

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Been doing pretty well this season...

Haven't been able to be as active as I'd like on the forum the past couple months...

A lot of my capping is done talking with three other people via skype. They claim they're 'sharps' and 'experts'. They play + money plays most of the time, and go on for hours about their decision making. I like to incorporate their thinking into my capping...

I thought it'd be cool to post this groups plays on TheRX and see how 'we' fair.

With every play I'll post a quick summary of why the play was chosen and played. These 3 guys normally wager $200+ each game...for this we'll simply keep track of the plays. The Units can be determined by whatever you play.

There are a couple rules we abide by.

1) Don't play any chalk over -140
2) Don't play public teams on national tv games (Sunday Night Baseball) if anything, take the opposite side.
3) Don't get suckered in on taking an 'ace' pitcher at a low price..It's low for a reason and an Ace pitcher doesn't equal guaranteed run support.
4) Make money.


Thursday May 5th, 2011:

NY Mets +102

San Fran is a public team. 64% of the public is pounding the Giants according to our numbers. However, the line has dropped from -117 to -108 on Pinnacle.

We like the Mets to avoid the sweep here.

Detroit Tigers +103

Another public team in the Yankees getting absolutely pounded by 'Joe Public'.

A-Rod and Derek Jeter are a combined 0/12 vs Rick Porcello AB. Overall, the Yankees bats haven't done so well vs the Tigers right-hander. AJ Burnett hasn't faired well in the month of May as a Yankee, and with the Tigers bats heating up we'll side with Detroit in this spot.

That's it for now.
 

RX Senior
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I'll try to be as active as possible on this sub-forum...see how everything goes. GL.
 

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3) Don't get suckered in on taking an 'ace' pitcher at a low price..It's low for a reason and an Ace pitcher doesn't equal guaranteed run support.

I don't agree with your #3 but that is your choice. Yesterday I nailed the giants with their Ace Pitcher Tim L. He was on the road with a low price. I was a little worried about run support, but with losing 2 in a row there was no way he was gonna let the other team beat him. Gl w/ your games today, I'm still capping.
 

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Live wager: Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 -110 on Bet365.

Drabek is trash. David Price is in the zone and TB bats are heating up.
 

RX Senior
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Cleveland Indians @ Oakland A's Over 7.5 -110

Indians dominate left handed pitchers. They're averaging 6.4 RPG with an OBP of .361. Oakland A's aren't a shabby hitting team either...and Gomez isn't anything special.
 

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Be careful Anderson has dominated the Indians, going 1-0 while yielding one run and seven hits with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings over two home starts.
 

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Live wager: Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 -110 on Bet365.

Drabek is trash. David Price is in the zone and TB bats are heating up.

What an absolute choke job by the short shop. Unreal. Absolute joke. 1 error top of the 9th costs me this wager.

Hate losing like this.
 

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Be careful Anderson has dominated the Indians, going 1-0 while yielding one run and seven hits with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings over two home starts.

Yeah, this was an instict play. Recommended by a couple of the guys in chat. I can already tell this will already be a loss. Should be 3-1 on the day but looks like we'll be 2-2.
 

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MLB 'Expert' YTD: 2-2

Two close losses by .5

Good to get them out of the way now early I guess :(
 

RX Senior
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Toronto Blue Jays -112


Absolute steal vs the gas can we like to call Phil Coke.

NY Mets -120

Kuroda + money? Tarp.

Cleveland Indians -113

Line is shifting for the Indians for a reason. Masteron 5-0 2.25 ERA pitching tomorrow.
 

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Chicago Cubs -126

Merely a fade of the public.

Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.

Reds are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win.

Reds are 1-8 in their last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Reds are 0-8 in their last 8 Friday games.

Volquez is tough to trust...Garza has been a lot sharper. I was going to take this at -124 last night but hesitated.
 

RX Senior
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San Diego Padres -137

Getting it before it goes any higher...no time for a write-up.
 

RX Senior
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Already making my wagers tonight before the lines move.

May 7th, 2011:

TB Rays +103

Rays going for their 7th straight road victory tomorrow. Averaging 7.2 runs doing so. Public loves the Orioles still but line is shooting down. Wouldn't be suprising to see the Rays as slight favorites tomorrow morning/afternoon.

Texas Rangers -107

Bartolo Colon + money? Tarp. He's going to wake up the Rangers bats tomorrow.

Chicago White Sox -102

White Sox can't buy a win. However, the Mariners are playing way over their head and I know the public will love that. Mariners had Felix on the mound last night as a -170 favourite and barely squeaked by...mainly because of the Mariners poor batting. Fister is much more hittable than Felix and I like the White Sox in this spot to finally get a win.
 

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May 7th, 2011 Continued:

Toronto Blue Jays +110

Line opened up at +118 at Pinny and is free falling fast. Lots of value in this one...great pitching match up for both teams.
 

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St. Louis Cardinals -127

GALLARDO is 0-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.63 and a WHIP of 1.382.

Brew Crew 1-4 as road dogs of +100-+125

Cardinals avg 5.5 runs per game vs Right handed starters.
 

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