2-0 on baseball plays in 2011 and although I don't come around too much anymore thought I would share my big play for today:
New York Mets ML +104
The general rule of thumb is to forget about betting on the Mets period all season and you'll probably come out on top and make some money but my theory is that like with every team you have to pick your spots and I feel this is a great spot to back them having already lost the first two games of this series. The pressure is one. Believe it or not Game 3 of a series is the only game out of four this season where the Mets have a winning record (5-4 on the year and 4-2 coming off a loss) because they have a losing record in Game 1, Game 2 and are 1-1 in Game 4 situations. Also keep in mind that the Giants are 1-4 this season in Game 3 situations coming off a win in Game 2. Not very significant but definitely worth noting which could also mean some guys are going to sit this one out to rest. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at 1:10pm ET which is 10:10am PT, again not a big difference but we know how NFL West Coast teams do in early start times and sometimes that plays into baseball games as well.
Alright so Jonathan Sanchez is on the mound for the Giants and he has been tremendous in 2011 (the team is 4-2 in his six starts). He is going up against Michael Pelfrey who is 1-3 on the year (the team is 1-5 in his six starts) with a 7.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP which is as fade material as it gets. Having said that, Pelfrey got his first win of the season in his last home start against Arizona lasting 7.0 innings and beating the D-Backs 4-1 in his one and only Quality Start of the season. Worthy of note, despite winning the first two games of this series, the Giants are still batting only .219 in their last 10 games. In two home starts this year, Pelfrey has a 2.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP and he obviously feels comfortable pitching in this ballpark. All four of his career starts against the Giants have been Quality Starts and the Mets are 3-1 in those starts and Pelfrey has pitched into the seventh inning in three of those starts. The Mets bullpen has an ERA of 2.73 in the last 10 games and they have pitched well enough to backup the starting staff. Sanchez on the other hand has been tremendous in away games, in day games and overall for the World Series Champions but there is a problem. The Mets are 0-5 in his last five starts against the Giants and in his only start here in 2010 he allowed 4 ER's and 3 Home Runs. Sure the Giants are 2-1 this season in his three road starts but only one of those starts was a Quality Start. In the other two he got to 100 pitches in only five innings and had to be removed.
One of the big trends to keep an eye out for in this one is Home Plate Umpire Eric Cooper who in my eyes has always been a HOMER. His last three games behind the plate have seen the Home Team win and in 2010 the Home Team was 22-12 with Cooper behind the plate which means 16 of his last 23 games behind the plate, the Home Team has come out on top. Worth a note for sure. It's also very hard to ignore the fact that the Mets seem to win games against left handed starters going 4-0 in their last four games this season versus lefties and throw in the fact that Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants are 0-5 in his last five starts against the Mets and you have a problem if you are betting on the defending champs. As a matter of fact I only bet on the Mets against lefties where they have won 16 of their last 22. I talked about the Giants having problems in Game 3's this season and that should continue today. The determining factors for me are the Mets bullpen being solid lately, the Mets always finding a way to win against left handed starters and the Giants struggling when Sanchez is on the mound against the Mets. I won't do it often but I am taking the Mets to win this straight up.
:toast:
New York Mets ML +104
The general rule of thumb is to forget about betting on the Mets period all season and you'll probably come out on top and make some money but my theory is that like with every team you have to pick your spots and I feel this is a great spot to back them having already lost the first two games of this series. The pressure is one. Believe it or not Game 3 of a series is the only game out of four this season where the Mets have a winning record (5-4 on the year and 4-2 coming off a loss) because they have a losing record in Game 1, Game 2 and are 1-1 in Game 4 situations. Also keep in mind that the Giants are 1-4 this season in Game 3 situations coming off a win in Game 2. Not very significant but definitely worth noting which could also mean some guys are going to sit this one out to rest. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at 1:10pm ET which is 10:10am PT, again not a big difference but we know how NFL West Coast teams do in early start times and sometimes that plays into baseball games as well.
Alright so Jonathan Sanchez is on the mound for the Giants and he has been tremendous in 2011 (the team is 4-2 in his six starts). He is going up against Michael Pelfrey who is 1-3 on the year (the team is 1-5 in his six starts) with a 7.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP which is as fade material as it gets. Having said that, Pelfrey got his first win of the season in his last home start against Arizona lasting 7.0 innings and beating the D-Backs 4-1 in his one and only Quality Start of the season. Worthy of note, despite winning the first two games of this series, the Giants are still batting only .219 in their last 10 games. In two home starts this year, Pelfrey has a 2.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP and he obviously feels comfortable pitching in this ballpark. All four of his career starts against the Giants have been Quality Starts and the Mets are 3-1 in those starts and Pelfrey has pitched into the seventh inning in three of those starts. The Mets bullpen has an ERA of 2.73 in the last 10 games and they have pitched well enough to backup the starting staff. Sanchez on the other hand has been tremendous in away games, in day games and overall for the World Series Champions but there is a problem. The Mets are 0-5 in his last five starts against the Giants and in his only start here in 2010 he allowed 4 ER's and 3 Home Runs. Sure the Giants are 2-1 this season in his three road starts but only one of those starts was a Quality Start. In the other two he got to 100 pitches in only five innings and had to be removed.
One of the big trends to keep an eye out for in this one is Home Plate Umpire Eric Cooper who in my eyes has always been a HOMER. His last three games behind the plate have seen the Home Team win and in 2010 the Home Team was 22-12 with Cooper behind the plate which means 16 of his last 23 games behind the plate, the Home Team has come out on top. Worth a note for sure. It's also very hard to ignore the fact that the Mets seem to win games against left handed starters going 4-0 in their last four games this season versus lefties and throw in the fact that Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants are 0-5 in his last five starts against the Mets and you have a problem if you are betting on the defending champs. As a matter of fact I only bet on the Mets against lefties where they have won 16 of their last 22. I talked about the Giants having problems in Game 3's this season and that should continue today. The determining factors for me are the Mets bullpen being solid lately, the Mets always finding a way to win against left handed starters and the Giants struggling when Sanchez is on the mound against the Mets. I won't do it often but I am taking the Mets to win this straight up.
:toast:
