one Thursday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


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DETROIT +103 over N.Y. Yankees

1:05 PM EST. The Tigers are just 14-17 but they’ve woken up with two straight wins in this series and now their bats are warming up too. Scott Sizemore was called up and inserted into the two spot. All he’s done is go 4 for 8 and stole a base. Magglio Ordóñez was hitting .151 two days ago and he’s now hitting .188 after going 4-7 and yet the Tigers still only scored eight runs the past two days. Expect their bats to warm up even more because this group of Tiger hitters is much better than their early season stats suggest. Today they’ll see A.J. Burnett in a matinee game. Burnett is off to a nice 4-1 start to go along with his 3.93 ERA but don’t expect the 2006-08 version to return and here’s why. First, age makes anything close to a major turnaround unlikely. Second, his groundball profile has shown a steady decline every year since ’06 and this year it’s barely passable at 37%. His GB/line-drive/FB profile is now 37%/23%/40%. In New York, he's been consistently mediocre with half-season xERAs of 4.31/4.47/4.53/4.54 (2009-2010) and this year his xERA is 4.59. Current skills say he's a shell of his former self and current Tiger hitters have a .912 OPS against him. After a great second half last season Rick Porcello’s growth has continued into the first month. Unlike Burnett’s decreasing skills, Porcello’s skills are dramatically increasing and it’s not a five-week thing either. It’s now more than a half a season sample. His strikeout rate and control are way up. He now has 23 k’s and just seven walks in 30 IP. Porcello’s elite GB rate of 51% is exciting too. It’s easy to forget that Porcello is still just 22 and is still at the “green” stage of his development. However, he’s in his third year and he’s got nothing but upside and great skills. Porcello is pitching under the radar right now so buy low. Play: Detroit +103 (Risking 2 units).

**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
 

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