Yesterday 1 0 0 +2.06 Units
Last 30 Days 36 37 0 +6.68 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 39 47 0 -5.22 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +108 over PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh is always risky as the chalk and you can double that when Paul Maholm is on the hill. Maholm is good for logging a lot of innings but he epitomizes mediocrity. His strikeout rate has been declining for two years and his ERA/xERA gap is a continuing concern. Maholm has been hit hard by the current Houston lineup over his career. Astros batters have hit a combined .325 with an .882 OPS against Maholm in over 200 AB. The Pirates return home from a six-game, two-city stop in Colorado and San Diego. They have a combined BA against southpaws of .204 and will face one here in Wandy Rodriguez. Comparing the skills of these two starters is like comparing Jennifer Lopez to Rosie O’Donnell. Rodriguez has outstanding base skills. He’s whiffed 33 in 38 IP and walked just nine. Rodriguez is just 1-3 and he’s been rocked in three of his six starts but he’s also thrown three gems against the Crew, the Mets and the Marlins. W-Rod always has rough starts to the year and then comes on. He’s won two of his last three starts and has a 2.05 ERA over that span covering 22 frames. Rodriguez is way undervalued here against a Pirates team that can’t hit lefties and that is not in a favorable scheduling spot either. Play: Houston +108 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +112 over BALTIMORE
The Rays are 4-1 on the road against lefties. They’ve also won eight of their last 11 games and they’ve been better on the road with a record of 8-4. James Shields was one of the AL's best starters in April. He has struck out 39 batters in 46 IP and has walked just nine. That pinpoint control and high strikeout rate will almost always keep you in games. Shield’s has posted a 2.14 ERA thus far, a 0.95 WHIP and a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under write-ups) of 113. The Orioles have scored 11 runs over their last four games and hit .257 over that stretch against starters, Mark Buehrle, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen. You might not be able to handpick a group of four starters you should never bet on like that quartet. Zach Britton has some good stuff but his BB/K ratio is atrocious (15/20). There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA (thanks to a 24% hit rate and 81% strand rate), suggesting some rough times ahead. The Orioles had planned on keeping Britton in Triple-A to delay his service time clock, but an injury to Brian Matusz forced their hand. Matusz is due back in a few weeks, but Britton's glowing surface stats (including a 5-1 record) may mean someone else will get bumped from the O’s rotation. That said, there's no guarantee Britton will stick in the majors all season, especially if his command issues begin to catch up to him. His value may never be higher than it is right now so now is the time to bet against him. Play: Tampa Bay +112 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 36 37 0 +6.68 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 39 47 0 -5.22 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +108 over PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh is always risky as the chalk and you can double that when Paul Maholm is on the hill. Maholm is good for logging a lot of innings but he epitomizes mediocrity. His strikeout rate has been declining for two years and his ERA/xERA gap is a continuing concern. Maholm has been hit hard by the current Houston lineup over his career. Astros batters have hit a combined .325 with an .882 OPS against Maholm in over 200 AB. The Pirates return home from a six-game, two-city stop in Colorado and San Diego. They have a combined BA against southpaws of .204 and will face one here in Wandy Rodriguez. Comparing the skills of these two starters is like comparing Jennifer Lopez to Rosie O’Donnell. Rodriguez has outstanding base skills. He’s whiffed 33 in 38 IP and walked just nine. Rodriguez is just 1-3 and he’s been rocked in three of his six starts but he’s also thrown three gems against the Crew, the Mets and the Marlins. W-Rod always has rough starts to the year and then comes on. He’s won two of his last three starts and has a 2.05 ERA over that span covering 22 frames. Rodriguez is way undervalued here against a Pirates team that can’t hit lefties and that is not in a favorable scheduling spot either. Play: Houston +108 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +112 over BALTIMORE
The Rays are 4-1 on the road against lefties. They’ve also won eight of their last 11 games and they’ve been better on the road with a record of 8-4. James Shields was one of the AL's best starters in April. He has struck out 39 batters in 46 IP and has walked just nine. That pinpoint control and high strikeout rate will almost always keep you in games. Shield’s has posted a 2.14 ERA thus far, a 0.95 WHIP and a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under write-ups) of 113. The Orioles have scored 11 runs over their last four games and hit .257 over that stretch against starters, Mark Buehrle, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen. You might not be able to handpick a group of four starters you should never bet on like that quartet. Zach Britton has some good stuff but his BB/K ratio is atrocious (15/20). There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA (thanks to a 24% hit rate and 81% strand rate), suggesting some rough times ahead. The Orioles had planned on keeping Britton in Triple-A to delay his service time clock, but an injury to Brian Matusz forced their hand. Matusz is due back in a few weeks, but Britton's glowing surface stats (including a 5-1 record) may mean someone else will get bumped from the O’s rotation. That said, there's no guarantee Britton will stick in the majors all season, especially if his command issues begin to catch up to him. His value may never be higher than it is right now so now is the time to bet against him. Play: Tampa Bay +112 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
