Yesterday 2 0 0 +4.40 Units
Last 30 Days 38 35 0 +15.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 41 47 0 -0.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +110 over PITTSBURGH
Charlie Morton has drawn some comparisons to Roy Halladay due to some delivery tweaks he made this spring. Throwing from a lower arm angle has helped him induce groundballs at a Halladay-esque rate. In fact, Morton's 67% groundball rate is the highest among SP with at least 30 IP. However, Morton's current 3.33 ERA is a lot lower than his 4.69 xERA suggests due to all those free passes he’s issuing. In fact, Morton has walked 23 and struck out just 19 in 38 IP. He's an interesting speculation and could cash some nice tickets this year as a big dog, but as the chalk against a team that steals bases and is hitting well, he’s not worth it. Furthermore, the Bucs are 1-7 at home against righthanders and will face a good one here in Bud Norris. In three of his last four starts Norris he did not allow a single earned run and that includes starts against the strong hitting line-ups of the Brewers and Cards. In 35 innings pitched, Norris has struck out 43 and walked 12. The Astros are 4-0 in Norris’s last four starts while the Pirates have lost two of Morton’s last three starts. So, we can either lay juice with a guy that walks batters or take-back a price with a guy that strikes them out at a high rate. Play: Houston +110 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +101 over SAN DIEGO
Dustin Moseley and his 1.63 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after six starts may be drawing attention but few pitchers have been more fortunate than him. His stats have been driven by his low 26% hit rate and high 88% strand rate. His skills have been horrible and with a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) of –3, Moseley’s numbers are in for a big regression. Pitchers with a low strikeout rate can survive if they have pinpoint control but Moseley doesn't (9 BB/16 K’s in 39 frames) and what we have here is a below average pitcher with unsustainable numbers. Daniel Hudson is the complete opposite in that he didn't have enticing surface stats at the end of April (5.64 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) but his base skills are suggesting that his fantastic finish from last season was no fluke. He has a 59% strand rate, which is almost 40 points lower than Moseley’s. Hudson has a BPV of 93 and he’s struck out 37 batters in 37 innings while walking 13. The surface stats don’t say it and Moseley will benefit from pitching at Petco all season, but once again those surface stats are hiding the truth about these two starters. Play: Arizona +101 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay -103 over Baltimore
1:10 PM EST. The Rays opened the year 1-8. They’re now 18-14 and a just one game behind the Yanks. Early in the year they were swept at home by an Orioles team that batted .224 in the three-game sweep and that’s because the Rays batted less. After last night’s 6-2 win, Tampa is now 9-4 on the road where they’re averaging over six runs per game. Jeremy Guthrie has a skeptical history and at age 32 there are no favorable signs. His groundball/flyball rate of 34%/49% raises concerns and his ERA is going to shoot upwards to be closer to his xERA of 4.43 once his high strand rate of 78% normalizes. Jeremy Hellickson is just 23 years old and nothing is guaranteed on the path from prospect to MLB contributor. But his pedigree and results are eye-opening and soften the rookie risk factor. He’s started five games thus far and while his results are nothing to get excited about, he’s been consistent and really hasn’t been hit that hard. Hellickson has lasted into the seventh inning in three straight starts and his BAA of .244 is proof that’s he’s adjusting well. In any case, this one is all about backing the red-hot Rays against a sinking O’s club and an unreliable Guthrie starting. Play: Tampa Bay -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Atlanta +127 over PHILADELPHIA
The Braves will promote a 20-year-old named Julio Teheran from Triple-A in time to make this start. It is expected that Teheran will return to the minors after the game. He has ascended quickly thru the minors - he pitched on three levels in '10 - due mostly to his mature approach and tremendous feel. With a mid-90s fastball (92-96 mph) and a knockout changeup, Teheran has the arsenal to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for many years to come. Though he struggles currently with his command and the consistency of his curveball, he's still good enough to make pitching look easy. Teheran has a quick, loose arm with nice deception in his delivery. Because he hides the ball in his delivery, his fastball looks even quicker. He only needs a smidgen more polish before he'll be in the majors for a long time. He has a career 3.04 ERA in the minors but this year it’s even lower at 1.80 in five starts. The Braves have won six in a row and are the hottest team in the majors. When anybody not named Halliday, Lee, Oswalt or Hamels is starting for the Phillies, they’re an average and beatable team. Kyle Kendrick will take the mound here instead of Oswalt for his first start of the season. Kendrick has been the long man in the Phillies bullpen in 2011 and has a stellar 2.08 ERA in 13 IP. But another look reveals deep holes: eight walks and just two strikeouts over that span, and both favorable hit percentage (21%) and strand rate (82%) is the reason for the ERA. xERA, on the other hand, is 6.74 and his BPV is -99. Given Kendrick's history there's no upside here and chances are he gets crushed again. Play: Atlanta +127 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 38 35 0 +15.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 41 47 0 -0.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +110 over PITTSBURGH
Charlie Morton has drawn some comparisons to Roy Halladay due to some delivery tweaks he made this spring. Throwing from a lower arm angle has helped him induce groundballs at a Halladay-esque rate. In fact, Morton's 67% groundball rate is the highest among SP with at least 30 IP. However, Morton's current 3.33 ERA is a lot lower than his 4.69 xERA suggests due to all those free passes he’s issuing. In fact, Morton has walked 23 and struck out just 19 in 38 IP. He's an interesting speculation and could cash some nice tickets this year as a big dog, but as the chalk against a team that steals bases and is hitting well, he’s not worth it. Furthermore, the Bucs are 1-7 at home against righthanders and will face a good one here in Bud Norris. In three of his last four starts Norris he did not allow a single earned run and that includes starts against the strong hitting line-ups of the Brewers and Cards. In 35 innings pitched, Norris has struck out 43 and walked 12. The Astros are 4-0 in Norris’s last four starts while the Pirates have lost two of Morton’s last three starts. So, we can either lay juice with a guy that walks batters or take-back a price with a guy that strikes them out at a high rate. Play: Houston +110 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +101 over SAN DIEGO
Dustin Moseley and his 1.63 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after six starts may be drawing attention but few pitchers have been more fortunate than him. His stats have been driven by his low 26% hit rate and high 88% strand rate. His skills have been horrible and with a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) of –3, Moseley’s numbers are in for a big regression. Pitchers with a low strikeout rate can survive if they have pinpoint control but Moseley doesn't (9 BB/16 K’s in 39 frames) and what we have here is a below average pitcher with unsustainable numbers. Daniel Hudson is the complete opposite in that he didn't have enticing surface stats at the end of April (5.64 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) but his base skills are suggesting that his fantastic finish from last season was no fluke. He has a 59% strand rate, which is almost 40 points lower than Moseley’s. Hudson has a BPV of 93 and he’s struck out 37 batters in 37 innings while walking 13. The surface stats don’t say it and Moseley will benefit from pitching at Petco all season, but once again those surface stats are hiding the truth about these two starters. Play: Arizona +101 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay -103 over Baltimore
1:10 PM EST. The Rays opened the year 1-8. They’re now 18-14 and a just one game behind the Yanks. Early in the year they were swept at home by an Orioles team that batted .224 in the three-game sweep and that’s because the Rays batted less. After last night’s 6-2 win, Tampa is now 9-4 on the road where they’re averaging over six runs per game. Jeremy Guthrie has a skeptical history and at age 32 there are no favorable signs. His groundball/flyball rate of 34%/49% raises concerns and his ERA is going to shoot upwards to be closer to his xERA of 4.43 once his high strand rate of 78% normalizes. Jeremy Hellickson is just 23 years old and nothing is guaranteed on the path from prospect to MLB contributor. But his pedigree and results are eye-opening and soften the rookie risk factor. He’s started five games thus far and while his results are nothing to get excited about, he’s been consistent and really hasn’t been hit that hard. Hellickson has lasted into the seventh inning in three straight starts and his BAA of .244 is proof that’s he’s adjusting well. In any case, this one is all about backing the red-hot Rays against a sinking O’s club and an unreliable Guthrie starting. Play: Tampa Bay -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Atlanta +127 over PHILADELPHIA
The Braves will promote a 20-year-old named Julio Teheran from Triple-A in time to make this start. It is expected that Teheran will return to the minors after the game. He has ascended quickly thru the minors - he pitched on three levels in '10 - due mostly to his mature approach and tremendous feel. With a mid-90s fastball (92-96 mph) and a knockout changeup, Teheran has the arsenal to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for many years to come. Though he struggles currently with his command and the consistency of his curveball, he's still good enough to make pitching look easy. Teheran has a quick, loose arm with nice deception in his delivery. Because he hides the ball in his delivery, his fastball looks even quicker. He only needs a smidgen more polish before he'll be in the majors for a long time. He has a career 3.04 ERA in the minors but this year it’s even lower at 1.80 in five starts. The Braves have won six in a row and are the hottest team in the majors. When anybody not named Halliday, Lee, Oswalt or Hamels is starting for the Phillies, they’re an average and beatable team. Kyle Kendrick will take the mound here instead of Oswalt for his first start of the season. Kendrick has been the long man in the Phillies bullpen in 2011 and has a stellar 2.08 ERA in 13 IP. But another look reveals deep holes: eight walks and just two strikeouts over that span, and both favorable hit percentage (21%) and strand rate (82%) is the reason for the ERA. xERA, on the other hand, is 6.74 and his BPV is -99. Given Kendrick's history there's no upside here and chances are he gets crushed again. Play: Atlanta +127 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
