Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.02 Units
Last 30 Days 39 37 0 +13.24 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 43 49 0 -0.80 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +149 over FLORIDA
The Nats have won three straight while the Marlins have dropped three straight. Last season Anibal Sanchez put shoulder problems behind him on way to his best year since '06 debut. However his xERA of 4.55 suggests caution, as does health grade. Sanchez has only lasted 9.1 innings over his last two starts after throwing a complete game April 22. He’s also walked seven and struck out six over that span so perhaps those health concerns are real. We’re seeing a decline in BAA, WHIP, BB’s and even his groundball/flyball profile is tilting the wrong way. Sanchez is someone you should avoid laying anything with right now until he gets right-sided. Livan Hernandez has a baseball IQ that’s off the charts. He doesn’t get rattled and gives his team a chance to win 90% of the time. You keep expecting him to blow up but he doesn’t. In his last two starts at Sun Life Stadium, Hernandez has an ERA of 2.13 and a BAA of .217. Hernandez is not going to dazzle and he’s going to get into jams, but he usually gets out of them and he wins games. Throw in the tag and the combination of a cold pitcher and a Marlins losing streak and that’s all the incentive we need. Play: Washington +149 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +122 over SAN DIEGO
Joe Saunders generated some buzz a few years ago in Anaheim, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in nearly 200 IP while posting a 17-7 record. But the thrill is pretty much gone after the past two ho-hum seasons. Now in Arizona, Saunders is trying to recapture his 2008 form and he hasn’t come close. Chase Field is not going to help anyone, especially a guy that puts the ball on play like Saunders. In two road starts at New York and Chicago, Saunders has an ERA of 2.25 and at this park against this host he could easily thrive. The Padres own the majors worst record and it’s not hard to find the reason why. Here are the batting averages of their eight starters from 1 to 8: .214, .150, .200, .250, .180, .239, .290 and .152. Yesterday they were shut out for the eighth time and on Friday they were issued 10 walks and barely won, 4-3. After a decent start to his tenure in San Diego, Aaron Harang has now lost his last two games at Petco and has allowed five bombs and 12 runs over the span. Bob Barker would have a hard time giving up five HR’s in two games at this venue. An argument could be made that laying juice with the combination of Harang and the Padres offense might just be the worst bet you could make today regardless of the outcome. Play: Arizona +122 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +105 over DETROIT
Brad Penny is coming off a gem against the New York Yankees of all teams and that unlikely result has him way overvalued here. There is nothing exciting about any of his skills. Penny has walked 17 and struck out 20 over 37 IP for a terrible BB/K ratio. In three road starts Penny is 0-2 with an ERA of 10.43 and in those three road starts he’s lasted a combined 14 innings and has given up three jacks. The Cards didn’t want him and neither did the Dodgers. Any pitcher can throw a good game from time to time but identifying those games can be a bankroll killer and Penny is not to be trusted laying juice, period. He’s also one of those pitchers that take forever between pitches and the fielders hate that more than anything. They like a guy to work fast and keep them on their toes but Penny is the polar opposite. The Jays get Aaron Hill back today and perhaps Jose Bautista too. Jo-Jo Reyes is erratic but he has wicked stuff. He’s certainly not inferior to Penny and has way more upside than his aging and overweight counterpart. The Jays pen is the best in the business so even if Reyes gets knocked out early, chances are Penny will too and then the Jays have a big edge once the gems get involved. Wrong side favored. Play: Toronto +105 (Risking 2 units).
HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY!
Last 30 Days 39 37 0 +13.24 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 43 49 0 -0.80 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +149 over FLORIDA
The Nats have won three straight while the Marlins have dropped three straight. Last season Anibal Sanchez put shoulder problems behind him on way to his best year since '06 debut. However his xERA of 4.55 suggests caution, as does health grade. Sanchez has only lasted 9.1 innings over his last two starts after throwing a complete game April 22. He’s also walked seven and struck out six over that span so perhaps those health concerns are real. We’re seeing a decline in BAA, WHIP, BB’s and even his groundball/flyball profile is tilting the wrong way. Sanchez is someone you should avoid laying anything with right now until he gets right-sided. Livan Hernandez has a baseball IQ that’s off the charts. He doesn’t get rattled and gives his team a chance to win 90% of the time. You keep expecting him to blow up but he doesn’t. In his last two starts at Sun Life Stadium, Hernandez has an ERA of 2.13 and a BAA of .217. Hernandez is not going to dazzle and he’s going to get into jams, but he usually gets out of them and he wins games. Throw in the tag and the combination of a cold pitcher and a Marlins losing streak and that’s all the incentive we need. Play: Washington +149 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +122 over SAN DIEGO
Joe Saunders generated some buzz a few years ago in Anaheim, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in nearly 200 IP while posting a 17-7 record. But the thrill is pretty much gone after the past two ho-hum seasons. Now in Arizona, Saunders is trying to recapture his 2008 form and he hasn’t come close. Chase Field is not going to help anyone, especially a guy that puts the ball on play like Saunders. In two road starts at New York and Chicago, Saunders has an ERA of 2.25 and at this park against this host he could easily thrive. The Padres own the majors worst record and it’s not hard to find the reason why. Here are the batting averages of their eight starters from 1 to 8: .214, .150, .200, .250, .180, .239, .290 and .152. Yesterday they were shut out for the eighth time and on Friday they were issued 10 walks and barely won, 4-3. After a decent start to his tenure in San Diego, Aaron Harang has now lost his last two games at Petco and has allowed five bombs and 12 runs over the span. Bob Barker would have a hard time giving up five HR’s in two games at this venue. An argument could be made that laying juice with the combination of Harang and the Padres offense might just be the worst bet you could make today regardless of the outcome. Play: Arizona +122 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +105 over DETROIT
Brad Penny is coming off a gem against the New York Yankees of all teams and that unlikely result has him way overvalued here. There is nothing exciting about any of his skills. Penny has walked 17 and struck out 20 over 37 IP for a terrible BB/K ratio. In three road starts Penny is 0-2 with an ERA of 10.43 and in those three road starts he’s lasted a combined 14 innings and has given up three jacks. The Cards didn’t want him and neither did the Dodgers. Any pitcher can throw a good game from time to time but identifying those games can be a bankroll killer and Penny is not to be trusted laying juice, period. He’s also one of those pitchers that take forever between pitches and the fielders hate that more than anything. They like a guy to work fast and keep them on their toes but Penny is the polar opposite. The Jays get Aaron Hill back today and perhaps Jose Bautista too. Jo-Jo Reyes is erratic but he has wicked stuff. He’s certainly not inferior to Penny and has way more upside than his aging and overweight counterpart. The Jays pen is the best in the business so even if Reyes gets knocked out early, chances are Penny will too and then the Jays have a big edge once the gems get involved. Wrong side favored. Play: Toronto +105 (Risking 2 units).
HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY!
