three Tuesday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

FLORIDA +109 over Philadelphia
We all know that Roy Halladay is a stud. His numbers, in this early season, exceed previous year’s stats. He’s simply an elite pitcher with a 5-1 record, a 2.19 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP over and has 57 k’s in 53.1 IP. Why would you consider betting against that? Well, Josh Johnson has all the makings of the next Halladay. In three of seven starts so far this season, Johnson did not allow a run. In 48 innings, he’s allowed just one homer and has 46 k’s. His ERA of 1.68, WHIP of 0.85 and BAA of .160 are all supported by his brilliant skills. Johnson is very likely a future Cy Young award winner and the fact that we get a tag with the majors best pitcher to date is all the incentive we need. There will rarely be an opportunity to take back juice with Josh Johnson, especially in his home park. The Marlins have won three of Johnson’s four home starts and his ERA at Sun Life is a masterful 1.35. Play: Florida +109 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit +100 over MINNESOTA
This is as good as it gets. The groans you heard late Tuesday night were from fantasy owners who had reserved or dropped Francisco Liriano before his no-hitter against the White Sox. Though it came with a win and lowered his ERA and WHIP, the six-walk, two-strikeout performance did little to alleviate the collective pain of his previous five starts. Let’s start with the walks. Liriano has now recorded one game with six and two games with five free passes in his six starts. Though he had some control problems in 2009, he has never issued such a high ration of walks. In addition, he's lost all relevant strikeout ability and his regression in that department is troubling. Add the ‘inevitable letdown” after throwing a no-hitter and combine it with the hot bats of the Tigers and this night could end very quickly for Liriano. The natural response to the no-hitter will be to say that Liriano must have recaptured his groove, and that this will be a turning point in his season. It won’t be. Despite the no-hitter, Liriano's skills are a mess. Rick Porcello is an up and coming young pitcher that put together a strong second half last year and it’s carried over into this year. With other metrics stable -- elite groundball rate and pinpoint control among them, Porcello is solid and he’ll face a Twins offense that is last in several key offensive categories. The Tigers are undervalued because of an awful start but they’ve quietly won six of seven and they have a big edge today both at the plate and on the hill. Play: Detroit +100(Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +124 over CLEVELAND
After six games on the West Coast in which they split 3-3 against the A’s and Angels, the Indians return home to face a team with the best road record in the majors. After sweeping the Orioles on the weekend, the Rays are now 11-4 away from the Trop and will now get to face Josh Tomlin here. Tomlin has looked like a rotation anchor so far: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP. A deeper look reveals those surface stats to be a complete mirage. His base skills are barely roster worthy with a low strikeout rate and an average groundball rate. Tomlin’s stats are the product of a favorable 17% hit rate and 80% strand rate, both unsustainable numbers. He's a contact pitcher who does not get a lot of groundballs and there’s little doubt his numbers are in for a big correction. Andy Sonnastine replaces Jeff Niemann for this start. Sonnastine has worked primarily out of the pen this year but he’s no stranger to starting. Sonnanstine won 13 games for the Rays in 2008 plus two more in the postseason and figured his life as a starter was starting to blossom. But after a poor 2009 season, Sonnanstine was sent to the bullpen last year when J.P. Howell was placed on the disabled list. While he accepted that role, Sonnanstine still fancies himself a starter and manager Joe Maddon gave him a vote of confidence by saying "It's going to be more than a one-start deal". Remember, the Rays started the year 1-8 but have the league’s best record since then and they have a great chance to begin “correcting” Tomlin’s stats. Play: Tampa Bay +124 (Risking 2 units).
 

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