My Computer Program's Next 50 Plays

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SSI

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I want to pay real close attention to my computer programs next 50 plays... I will play them in this form.

TOP 2 plays each day
Saturday broken into 2 days, for a max of 4 plays
Sunday will have a Bonus Play, for a total of 3
Occasional day game will be added on some weekdays


This should give me a total of about 70 plays per month... This should be the perfect number for me.

With 21 days left in this month, i should get in about 50 plays.


Goal of the thread will be to go (30-20) (60%) with the losing plays averaging no more than (-1.10).. this is for the average...

I made no adjustments to the Program but i did slightly adjust which selections would be played...


Here are the next 50 plays...


1. Oakland (+1.00) (Gonzalez/Harrison) (day game)

2. Dodgers (-1.05) (Kuroda/Maholm)

3. Phillies (-1.15) (Lee/Nalasco)



Falcon
 

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I am curious how did your program change from selecting all or mostly dogs to favs?

Thanks.
 

SSI

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Paul: the program did not change, the program has always selected every game... some are stronger than others... but in each game, the program selects who should win that matchup, so nothing has changed...

what has changed is "who i play",,,, from the selected plays...


Looks like i caught a break yesterday in the oak/tex game, as the rains came and we got a cancellation...



Thread Record: 2-0

Plays for thursday may 12

tampa (+1.00) (shields/masterson)
dodgers (+1.10) (garland/morton)
giants (-1.35) (cain/hudson)



this thread will close at the end of the month and if my calculations are correct, there should be about 50 plays posted in this thread.

it is very important that i hit 60% of those plays (30-20) and its just as important that my juice does not average over a (-1.10) for the losses... im not saying that i wont play over (-1.10), im saying the average on the losses needs to equal (-1.10) or lower.. you do this by taking mostly dogs..


again, all plays are selected from the same Program that ive used the entire season. the selection process has not changed at all.... what has changed is who i am playing.. im looking for the very TOP plays, without being killed on juice.

this thread should give you a small glimpse as to how good or bad this program is...

Long term, i think its going to be good, im up over $1000 this season, betting roughly $200 per game... not blowing it out of the water but definately better than losing... we are not even a quarter of the way thru the season..

Lets see how May goes...


Falcon
 

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Long term, i think its going to be good, im up over $1000 this season, betting roughly $200 per game... not blowing it out of the water but definately better than losing

I'm not sure why today I decided to come to the RX and the baseball forum of all places, but I looked at your thread because it relates to a computer program, of which I have an extreme affinity for.

I'm sure you know this, but you have bet 173 games this year (81-92) which means if you are averaging $200/game, you have bet a total of $34,600. And you have made $1,082. That is a Return on Investment of 3%. You are right, its better than losing, but it is definitely nothing to get excited over. For the people on the forum who may be following along and betting your plays, that is one thing, but the time it takes for you to run your program and develop the plays, a 3% ROI may not be worth the time invested on your end. Have you used this program in prior years? How has it done? Maybe this year is a down year, I don't know, so if it is I mean no offense. Simply pointing out the ROI factor means more than making $1000 YTD. Good luck.
 

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hes up 1000 bucks aiverson, that is a good chunk of change
 

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Bad analogy.

To say he has a 3% ROI would be totally over simplifying the situation. The
amount flucuates daily- and once you are in the positive- you are actually making
profit on profit.

It's not like your investing $30000 in a money market- and at the end of the year
you've got $30900.

I don't think your ROI anology is valid at all.

With that being said, SSI, I really like you tweaking to filter out the top plays-
there's be a noticeable improvement since you did it. Keep up the good work
and look forward to checking out your plays!
 

SSI

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i will be the first to admit, the program has not performed up to my expectations....

and as i said, i have not changed the program at all.... i simply decided to reduce the amount of plays.


Falcon
 

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First, I am wishing Falcon/SSI nothing but the best here, I was simply commenting on the way the amount won was posted.

Mlink&korninva - while being up 1,000 may seem like a lot to you, when you have to put down 34,600 to make those 1,000 you just have to keep things in perspective. That's all I am saying, keep it in perspective. You do that by looking at the $/play risked and how much total has been risked to return that profit. If the average per play is 200, its the equivalent of being up 5 games over .500 after 173 games if the juice was the same for all games. That's 89-84. I always examine win percentages, amounts won and risked and the like when I am looking at the results from a particular handicapper. I find it extremely helpful because everyone does things differently.

If he bet 1,000 a play and was up 1,000 on the season, you would have to admit that his record isn't that great. It's 1 game over .500 essentially, and he would have bet a total of 173,000 to get there, or a ROI of 0.6%.

Similarly, if he bet just $50 a play, and was up 1,000 on the season, that's a very solid record. It's 20 games over .500 essentially, and he bet 8,650 to make 1,000 or a ROI of 11.6%.

Discussing ROI is not an analogy at all, it's just a fact. The more you bet per game and the more games you are betting, the more you need to win to prove you have great results. That's what a lot of people on the boards need to realize. Don't just look at the amount of imaginary (or real, either way) dollars a person says they have won, you need to look at how much they are wagering/game and how much they've wagered over the course of the season to make that amount. It's 100% relevant and the only valid way to evaluate their results.

Falcon/SSI, continued luck to you and I hope you beat 60% over your next 50 games. I respect anyone who develops these programs and shares their plays and accurately documents their record. I won't take up any more space in your thread. Good luck.
 

SSI

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aiverson: no problem at all... posts such as yours are always welcome...

and ill say again: i am not pleased with the Program's performance thus far......... that is why i went in this direction.. (reducing the amount of games played)...

hopefully the results will improve over these 50 plays, thats why this thread is ultra important to me...


Falcon
 

SSI

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looks as though we get the same results as yesterday... 2-0 with a rainout...


Thread Record: 4-0

back friday with the Program's 2 strongest plays..


Falcon
 

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AI does some sensible math and offers some valid observations.

It should be added however that in this example, there is a reasonable distinction between the ROI for a collection of wagers which combine to tally $34K and one or more traditional forms of investment where the full $34K is put on the table and then (at least for some term) is not accessible for use.

In the case of someone making a series of $200 wagers, it's unlikely that at any point more than $3-4000 is completely "in play", leaving the rest to potentially be used for other purposes.

If the average amount "on the table" on any given day is $3000 and the back end plus balance is $1000, it's not unreasonable to view that as closer to a 33% ROI than to being a 3% ROI.
 

SSI

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i can remember making my first real wagers in 1986, at the age of 19.... and the old man that was taking my bets saying, "play 2 of them son, you might win one".... never forgot that.


Thread Record: 4-0 (+$800)


plays for friday May 13


Cardinals (+1.10) 2 units (lohse/arroyo)

Toronto (-1.10) 2 units (romero/pavano)


personally going to play $200 on all 50 wagers that will be posted in this thread... so far, so good..


Falcon
 

SSI

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Thread Record: 5-1 (+$800)
avg juice on losers (0.00)


saturday will now be broken into 2 betting days for me, giving me a 8 day betting week... this will come more into play when college sports are going on...

today ill be releasing both cards at the same time...

plays for saturday May 14

daytime card


Indians (-1.35) (white/bedard)
Tigers (-1.35) (penny/francis)

those are the 2 daytime selections for saturday... remember my juice on the losses should average no higher than (-1.10), so there will not be alot of big favorites...


evening card

SF Giants (-1.05) (vogelson/davis)

Tampa Bay Lightening (+1.30) (ML OT inc) (NHL)


yes the NHL selection will be included as part of the 50 plays that will be listed in this thread for the month of May...

I am now only playing the Program's strongest plays... I want the number of plays per month to come right in at around 70....

so far, so good..


Falcon
 

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aiverson: no problem at all... posts such as yours are always welcome...

and ill say again: i am not pleased with the Program's performance thus far......... that is why i went in this direction.. (reducing the amount of games played)...

hopefully the results will improve over these 50 plays, thats why this thread is ultra important to me...


Falcon

Well, I hope your computer program works out for you in the long run. Two years ago I created a spreadsheet that compared the hitting and pitching power of the two teams, but it took me about an hour to track down and enter the information (all of it readily available on espn.com). It gave pretty good results, but you can't figure everything. I don't use it now, just because of the tediousness of it (and I simply don't have the time). I read websites and do a mental calculation of the stats now, which last year worked out great for me, but this year, not so hot. Leaned too hard on the Braves and Yankees and they let me down - a lot. Your system picks seem to center on the "middle-tier" teams, which I think is great because they don't get all of the attention of the RedSox, Yankees and other high-profile teams that skew the odds too much, and put pressures on the teams that are hard to quantify by computer.

Anyway, best of luck with your system....!

Skip
 

SSI

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hcskip: this Program has probably changed the way that i gamble forever... the way that i run this is, it gives me the winner on every matchup, then its kinda up to me as to who to play... obviously im going to throw out all the big favorites in regular season baseball.. i dont believe you can win betting many of them on a daily basis..

i started out by betting all the PLUS money plays that the Program selected to win... The problem with that (for me) was the 0-5 (0-6) days that you may get occasionally.... That was a big strain on me...

i am now right in my comfort zone with the amount of games wagered...

i truly believe that i have a great Program, its just taking me a little time to get to where i want to be.. its made me a grand in the last 3+ days, at the moment and thats not too shabby... i 100% believe in what im doing and i hope to prove it (to myself), this mlb season...

as they say time will tell...


Thread Record: 6-1 (+$1000)

pending wagers for saturday night

Giants (-1.05) (voselgong/davis)

TB Bolts (+1.30) ML OT inc (NHL)


lets see how it continues..


Falcon
 

SSI

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Thread Record: 8-1 (+$1460)
avg juice on losses (0.00)

so far so good..



Falcon
 

SSI

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taking only the strongest plays from my Program in this thread.. moneylines are definately a part of the equation. i do not believe in laying big juice on regular season baseball.

the goal of this thread is to hit 60%, against an average (-1.10) line... playing roughly 2 plays per day, with saturday broken into 2 betting days, with a bonus play on sunday.

this should average around 70 plays per month, which is almost perfect for what im trying to accomplish in this business.

all plays are selected from a computer program, so i have very little to do with any selection that you see posted here.

this thread will run for the month of May..

so far, so good.


Thread Record: 8-1 (+$1460)
avg juice on losses (0.00)


plays for sunday May 15


Indians (-1.15) (tomlin/pineda)

Phillies (-1.15) (halladay/hudson)

Chicago Bulls -2 (-1.10) (NBA)


each wager in this thread (for me) is for $200...



Falcon
 

SSI

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Just a couple more comments, on some of sundays other big games..

OKC/Memphis: Program likes OKC to win this game SU... the Program does not pick by the spread and i cannot lay the juice of roughly 3:1 and i cant lay (-6.5pts) and risk OKC winning but not covering.. so its a pass...

Vancouver/San Jose: the Program has a slight edge for vancouver but is not strong enough to lay a juice (-1.70) on this one..

I can tell you this, the Program is predicting a Vancouver/TB finals and that should be a very good one...

Bos/Yanks: the play tonight would be NY as the Underdog but is not strong enough to play and i personally dont like the yankees, so i hope the program misses this one... this would fall into the category of Value play and i am trying to stop messing with Value and go more for Winning..


just rambling and wanted to comment on the 3 other big games... also want to mention one for you trend followers. The Pirates are 3-32 in their last 35 games at the brewers park... thats pretty bad..

have a good sunday


Falcon
 

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