Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.18 Units
Last 30 Days 35 38 0 +1.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 45 54 0 -6.62 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
TORONTO +121 over Boston
Despite scoring six times last night the Red Sox continue to struggle at the plate on the road, hitting only .224 with a .333 slugging % and it appears as though they’re going to have to score a bunch here in support of John Lackey. Lackey has three quality starts in six tries. His quality games were against Seattle, Oakland and the Angels, the latter two on the road. When facing a strong offense in a hitter’s parks he’s been torched. His three poor starts came at Texas and at home against the Yanks and Angels. In those three games, Lackey allowed 27 hits, 23 runs and 4 jacks in 12.2 innings and that’s not a typo. Lackey getting torched is supported by his troubling skills. In 44 innings, he’s struck out a lousy 18 batters while walking 13. He has a 1.74 WHIP and a groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 34%/21%/45%. In other words, he’s fooling nobody. The Jays offense is on the verge of breaking through again, just like they were at the start of the year. Jose Bautista and Aaron Hill are back and there’s a good chance Adam Lind will play here. Jesse Litsch has struck out 31 and walked just 14 in 36 innings. He has a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.04 ERA (xERA of 3.81) and he just keeps getting better. The Jays pen has a huge edge in this game and but more than that is the tag we’re taking back against the “dead-arm” of John Lackey. Play: Toronto +121 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. ANGELS –106 over Chicago
The thing that caught our eye in this matchup was the posted total of 8 under –120. That strongly suggests that the books expect at least one of these pitchers to throw a pretty strong game. On paper that doesn’t look likely when you consider that the Angels lead the AL with a team BA of .271 and will face Jake Peavy, who will make his season debut and that was rocked in his rehab starts. Peavy also missed the second half of last season when he underwent surgery to repair a detached muscle near his right shoulder. He’s been off for almost a full year. Tyler Chatwood walks more batters (22) than he strikes out (18). Chatwood is learning as he goes in the majors and the Angels have won four of his six starts. There’s no denying that he has great stuff and lots of upside. His fastball has topped out at 95 mph. He has a plus curveball that freezes batters and he’s getting a lot more swinging strikes on his changeup. Chatwood is also very aggressive, he works quickly and he trusts his stuff, even when he’s behind in the count. He’s keeping the ball down in the zone more often to induce ground balls, which was one of his strengths in the minors. Now he’ll face a White Sox club hitting only .214 with a .319 slugging % over the last 28 days. Chatwood is coming off an eight-inning, two hit gem against the Indians and we can now understand why the oddsmakers believe that Chatwood is more likely to throw a strong game than Peavy is. Play: L.A. Angels –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 35 38 0 +1.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 45 54 0 -6.62 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
TORONTO +121 over Boston
Despite scoring six times last night the Red Sox continue to struggle at the plate on the road, hitting only .224 with a .333 slugging % and it appears as though they’re going to have to score a bunch here in support of John Lackey. Lackey has three quality starts in six tries. His quality games were against Seattle, Oakland and the Angels, the latter two on the road. When facing a strong offense in a hitter’s parks he’s been torched. His three poor starts came at Texas and at home against the Yanks and Angels. In those three games, Lackey allowed 27 hits, 23 runs and 4 jacks in 12.2 innings and that’s not a typo. Lackey getting torched is supported by his troubling skills. In 44 innings, he’s struck out a lousy 18 batters while walking 13. He has a 1.74 WHIP and a groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 34%/21%/45%. In other words, he’s fooling nobody. The Jays offense is on the verge of breaking through again, just like they were at the start of the year. Jose Bautista and Aaron Hill are back and there’s a good chance Adam Lind will play here. Jesse Litsch has struck out 31 and walked just 14 in 36 innings. He has a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.04 ERA (xERA of 3.81) and he just keeps getting better. The Jays pen has a huge edge in this game and but more than that is the tag we’re taking back against the “dead-arm” of John Lackey. Play: Toronto +121 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. ANGELS –106 over Chicago
The thing that caught our eye in this matchup was the posted total of 8 under –120. That strongly suggests that the books expect at least one of these pitchers to throw a pretty strong game. On paper that doesn’t look likely when you consider that the Angels lead the AL with a team BA of .271 and will face Jake Peavy, who will make his season debut and that was rocked in his rehab starts. Peavy also missed the second half of last season when he underwent surgery to repair a detached muscle near his right shoulder. He’s been off for almost a full year. Tyler Chatwood walks more batters (22) than he strikes out (18). Chatwood is learning as he goes in the majors and the Angels have won four of his six starts. There’s no denying that he has great stuff and lots of upside. His fastball has topped out at 95 mph. He has a plus curveball that freezes batters and he’s getting a lot more swinging strikes on his changeup. Chatwood is also very aggressive, he works quickly and he trusts his stuff, even when he’s behind in the count. He’s keeping the ball down in the zone more often to induce ground balls, which was one of his strengths in the minors. Now he’ll face a White Sox club hitting only .214 with a .319 slugging % over the last 28 days. Chatwood is coming off an eight-inning, two hit gem against the Indians and we can now understand why the oddsmakers believe that Chatwood is more likely to throw a strong game than Peavy is. Play: L.A. Angels –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
hno:
