Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.30 Units
Last 30 Days 34 39 0 -2.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 46 55 0 -6.32 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +164 over ATLANTA
As sports bettors, we usually don’t pay much attention to the standings but did you know that the Nats are a single game behind the Braves. Washington has now won four of its last five while the Braves have lost three of four. Jordan Zimmerman has made seven starts and in all but two has allowed two runs or less. While his pre-Tommy John surgery skills have not fully returned yet, his fastball velocity already is higher (93.2 MPH vs. 92.3 MPH) than it was last season. Zimmerman’s strikeout rate is increasing game by game and in fact, he’s struck out 10 over his last two starts covering 12 frames. Zimmerman has pinpoint control and one of the lowest line-drive (14%) profiles in the game. Zimmerman is getting stronger and looking better with each passing inning and he is certainly worth a close look at this price. You’re going to pay full price for Derek Lowe’s history of reliability and consistency. However, the Braves are just 4-4 in his eight starts and his ERA at home is 4.00, which is respectable but not dazzling by any stretch. Nats are playing good ball and offer up some pretty sweet value here. Play: Washington +164 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle/BALTIMORE over 7½
This is a National League total in an AL game with two average or below average pitchers taking the mound today. There were 13 runs scored in the first game of this series and six were scored yesterday but King Felix was on the hill for Seattle yesterday. Camden Yards is also a hitter’s park and just one of Jason Vargas’s last nine games on grass has gone under the total. Five of Vargas’s seven starts this year have come at Safeco and there’s nothing exciting about this soft-tossing lefty. High contact and high fly-ball mix is a potentially explosive one and his 4.68 ERA doesn’t instill much confidence either. Vargas has had one good year in five years of service. Command was an issue for Zach Britton in the minors. His minor league command rate was merely average, and so far in the majors, he's been very inconsistent. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA (thanks to a 24% hit rate and 81% strand rate), suggesting some rough times ahead. Britton’s numbers look rock solid on paper and he’s the reason this total is so low but he’s still a rookie and his skill set does not support his surface stats. Play: Seattle/Baltimore over 7½ (Risking 2.28 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 34 39 0 -2.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 46 55 0 -6.32 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +164 over ATLANTA
As sports bettors, we usually don’t pay much attention to the standings but did you know that the Nats are a single game behind the Braves. Washington has now won four of its last five while the Braves have lost three of four. Jordan Zimmerman has made seven starts and in all but two has allowed two runs or less. While his pre-Tommy John surgery skills have not fully returned yet, his fastball velocity already is higher (93.2 MPH vs. 92.3 MPH) than it was last season. Zimmerman’s strikeout rate is increasing game by game and in fact, he’s struck out 10 over his last two starts covering 12 frames. Zimmerman has pinpoint control and one of the lowest line-drive (14%) profiles in the game. Zimmerman is getting stronger and looking better with each passing inning and he is certainly worth a close look at this price. You’re going to pay full price for Derek Lowe’s history of reliability and consistency. However, the Braves are just 4-4 in his eight starts and his ERA at home is 4.00, which is respectable but not dazzling by any stretch. Nats are playing good ball and offer up some pretty sweet value here. Play: Washington +164 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle/BALTIMORE over 7½
This is a National League total in an AL game with two average or below average pitchers taking the mound today. There were 13 runs scored in the first game of this series and six were scored yesterday but King Felix was on the hill for Seattle yesterday. Camden Yards is also a hitter’s park and just one of Jason Vargas’s last nine games on grass has gone under the total. Five of Vargas’s seven starts this year have come at Safeco and there’s nothing exciting about this soft-tossing lefty. High contact and high fly-ball mix is a potentially explosive one and his 4.68 ERA doesn’t instill much confidence either. Vargas has had one good year in five years of service. Command was an issue for Zach Britton in the minors. His minor league command rate was merely average, and so far in the majors, he's been very inconsistent. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA (thanks to a 24% hit rate and 81% strand rate), suggesting some rough times ahead. Britton’s numbers look rock solid on paper and he’s the reason this total is so low but he’s still a rookie and his skill set does not support his surface stats. Play: Seattle/Baltimore over 7½ (Risking 2.28 units to win 2).
