eye catching play

winbig · May 13, 2011

when i took a first look at the consensus numbers earlier today i thaught that kc/det over consensus % is a bit too high. it's 3:30 p.m now, i just checked it out once again and it is stil very high, even higher than earlier today. so, is this total of 7.5 a 'gift' or just a total too good to be true for 'over backers' ?

both offenses are hot now but they are facing opponent's #1 starters today. both starters are comming into this game following their best game of the season. verlander threw a no hitter against toronto last time out and hochevar allowed a single earned run in 7 innings pitched against oakland tossing only 13.4 pitches per inning pitched.

i expect verlander to continue dominating the batters at least for the first half of this game. if he ever gets shaky it should happen in the latter stages of this game. as for hochevar, he is a good pitcher in early innings anyways, and these two should keep it low scoring early on. kc bullpen is slid, but detroit bullpen sucks, especially in verlander games. with verlander throwing for 9 innings last game, i believe that detroit bullpen will see some action today. i just don't trust that group of guys enough to risk my money on the entire game total. the last time these two starter went against each other the score after 5 innings was 0-0 and there was only 1 runs scored after 7 innings completed. so, i'm taking under 4 runs for the first 5 innings in this game.

tar_heel_in_sc · May 13, 2011

Agree 100%. I've had my eye on this one too.

winbig · May 14, 2011

Verlander dominated for 5 innings and Hochevar played well enough to keep this game low scoring in the first 5 innings.

mpn · May 14, 2011

nice hit wb, let's hope some more plays will be able to catch your eyes!

winbig · May 14, 2011

It's not a very well know fact that LAD struggle at home against right handed starters. This season alone they scored 3 runs or less in 10 of 13 home games against righty starters (overall at home vs righty starters just over 2 runs per game this season). Today they a facing a righty they never saw before. Collmenter is making his first start of the season after allowing 0 earned runs and 1 hit in last 4 bullpen appearances (7 innings pitched). Arizona lost 5 straight games by 1 run and they are overdue to win one. But I'm not gonna take the D'backs here. Instead, I'm taking LAD team total under 3.5 runs.

winbig · May 15, 2011

win big said:
It's not a very well know fact that LAD struggle at home against right handed starters. This season alone they scored 3 runs or less in 10 of 13 home games against righty starters (overall at home vs righty starters just over 2 runs per game this season). Today they a facing a righty they never saw before. Collmenter is making his first start of the season after allowing 0 earned runs and 1 hit in last 4 bullpen appearances (7 innings pitched). Arizona lost 5 straight games by 1 run and they are overdue to win one. But I'm not gonna take the D'backs here. Instead, I'm taking LAD team total under 3.5 runs.

Winner.

winbig · May 15, 2011

Tor/Min consensus on 'over' is pretty much the only public selection that catches my eye for Sunday. It's not surprising to see the betting public liking the over when total is lower than 8 in AL games. But it is surprising to see how big of a change in public perception can 6 extra inning runs make. Yesterday, public liked under in this series and now they like over, with probably better pitching and despite the fact that pitching was solid yesterday too. Toronto faced three righties in a row and now they are going against a very solid lefty. Minnesota faced three lefties in a row and now they face a righy they never saw before. These two teams scored only 8 regulation runs in two games in this series and now they need to score 8 runs in the third game of this series to beat this total. I like my chances with under 7.5 today.

mpn · May 15, 2011

spot on analysis wb, love it. i'm gonna tail the under 7.5 hard as i like it too and missed out on your two earlier winners. glgl.

mpn · May 16, 2011

i think i jinxed you pretty hard, keep em' coming.

winbig · May 16, 2011

Tor/Min game was a loser, so this approach is 2-1 now...
I really like today's game.
I am taking Orioles +2.5 -210 & Orioles team total over 4 (-110)

winbig · May 17, 2011

4-1 now

mpn · May 17, 2011

nice plays yesterday wb. can you please give some brief reasons on why you liked those two plays from yesterday? much appreciated.

winbig · May 17, 2011

mpn said:
nice plays yesterday wb. can you please give some brief reasons on why you liked those two plays from yesterday? much appreciated.

Simply too much late action on both Boston and Under while I believed that Baltimore and over were the right plays based on specific situations of the game.

winbig · May 17, 2011

Taking Atlanta team total under 4 (-113) and Houston +2.5 (-255) early on. Just for the record: those chalky +2.5 runs plays are smaller than average plays. Something like 'action bets' as some would call them. Atlanta is usually a public play at home especially against bad teams, but that public support for Atlanta is usually correlated with the support for the under. That's not the case today, as the betting public likes Atlanta and over which is kinda unusual. Especially against a red hot pitcher like W.Rodriguez who allowed 5 earned runs over 22 innings pitched in his last three starts. It happened yesterday as well, and Atlanta barelly beat Astros 3-2 as a -220 chalk.

wvafan3 · May 17, 2011

Good luck win big

winbig · May 17, 2011

6-1 now

Ttratter · May 17, 2011

See anything tonight?

winbig · May 18, 2011

Early on, there are two-three games that really catch my eye for wednesday. Right now I'm ready to place an early bet on only one game. And it is under 6.5 in San Diego.

The public is in love with the over in this game which makes no sense imo.

San Diego played their last 8 games in NL's elite hitter friendly ballparks in Arizona, Colorado and Milwaukee. That's why their o/u record during this road trip was 6-1-1. They are back at home where they have to work twice as hard just to get a run or two. Milwaukee too played 6 home games in their ballpark (ranked #1 in BA among all ballparks this season) before heading out west where they scored 2 runs in two games against LA in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Gallardo is red hot now and Moseley proved earlier this season that he can pitch, and even when he doesn't pitch well, he can count on the best bullpen in majors, especially at home. In his last two home starts, he allowed 5 and 3 earned runs and his relievers allowed 0 runs in 7 innings.

winbig · May 18, 2011

Today's 'chalky alt-runline' is Houston +2.5 (-260). So I'm taking the Astros again. They cost some people money here yesterday, but they won for me as I took them on the +2.5 alt-runline. Today's reasoning goes like this: St.Louis is your usual public play when home favorite but very rarely you will see the public pounding the under in this situation. And that's what people are doing here. I can see quite a few runs scored in this game but I will not bet on the total. I will take 2.5 runs with a team that won 6 of last 7 games in St.Louis, and with a pitcher who allowed no earned runs three times in last six starts overall and four times in seven starts against the Cards.
* I repeat once again, these chalky plays are small action bets as I am not a big fan of laying the wood.

winbig · May 18, 2011

Last play today...Everyone and their mother is on Cleveland. And not only that, but more and more people are pounding the over. Yet the White Sox are stil favored and the total droped down from 8.5 to 7.5. Crazy ! The thing is, the White Sox owned Cleveland lately, winning last three series and 8 of last 10 meetings. This season the White Sox have a 11-11 record against non losing teams and a 6-14 record against losing teams (crazy!). Masterson has a nice record and a nice ERA but if you look at sagarin's ratings you'll see that his ERA shouldn't be this good, and you'll also see that his RICKEY/9IP (pitcher power) as well as his MOB (men on bases) are 2nd worst in top 25 in AL. All in all, he just doesn't belong to that group and his last outing could be a preview of what's to come. Peavy pitched much better that what his stats tell us in his only start this season. I'm taking CWS here.