Yesterday 0 2 0 -4.26 Units
Last 30 Days 33 41 0 -8.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 46 57 0 -10.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Philadelphia -104 over ATLANTA (5 innings)
The unreliability of middle relief has us focusing upon 5 innings of play here. Cole Hamels fits our profile well. Not only because he has pitched five beauties in a row, but also because Atlanta has struggled against LHPs thus far. The Braves are hitting only .220 v lefties and their .631 OPS southpaws ranks 28th in MLB. Hamels is one of the best southpaws in the league and he’s 3-0 on the road with a brilliant 1.23 ERA. The Braves were fortunate that the Nats didn’t sweep them after falling behind 5-1 going to the seventh. Brandon Beachy showed flashes of his upside in three starts last season. He has taken those flashes to a new level this season. His first full month has been fantastic but there are a few areas of concern. One is his 53% fly-ball rate, which gives him some vulnerability to the long ball. Another is his approach vs. LH bats. They have managed a .812 OPS against him compared with a .540 OPS posted by RH bats. He also has been helped by a low 25% hit rate. Beachy’s ERA and WHIP will elevate as his hit % does, and he still needs an out pitch vs. lefthanders. Beachy has yet to win at home, where he sports a 4.07 ERA and in no way are we going with the worst of it here. Play: Philadelphia -104 in the first 5 innings. (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Kansas City +169 over DETROIT
This one is simply the “play against a pitcher after a no-hitter” angle. We played that angle against Francisco Liriano this past week and he never made it out of the third inning. While we’re not comparing Liriano to Justin Verlander, the impact of throwing a ‘no no’ cannot be overstated. It is followed by swarms of media for three of four days, a slew of phone calls and emails from everyone he ever knew. It’s so difficult to be at your best the next time out. When a pitcher starts to “sense” a no-hitter his focus intensifies and he gets completely locked in during the final few innings. The next game becomes anti-climatic and that’s what we have here. He’ll get a standing ovation as he walks to the mound to begin the game and while he’s more than capable of beating anyone, the Royals are playing some pretty good ball right now. They’re three games over .500 and they just took two out of three in New York. We’re not going to make a case for Luke Hochevar over Justin Verlander. This is strictly a “situational” play that has a high percentage of cashing and a rich reward if we’re right. Play: Kansas City +169 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +101 over CINCINNATI
Bronson Arroyo has surrendered seven jacks in his four home starts. Giving up multiple home runs in a game is something Arroyo has done 42 times since the start of the 2006 season, which is most in the majors during that span. Now he’ll face a Cards team that has scored the most runs (193) in the majors. Arroyo’s ERA at Great American is 5.92 and it’s no mystery as to why. He’s a fly-ball pitcher and at this venue that’s a bad marriage. Also note that Arroyo has an extremely high 80% strand rate and the Cards are unlikely to leave 80% of their runners stranded. St. Louis hitters have the least amount of strikeouts in the NL and they really should be spraying the ball all over the place tonight. Kyle Lohse has ace-like surface stats after his first 52 IP (2.24 ERA, 0.86 WHIP). The key for him has been pinpoint control, as he has only walked 10 batters. Lohse is a poor bet to maintain these numbers over the long haul but the Dave Duncan effect is a powerful one and Lohse is 3-0 on the road with a 1.21 ERA. For now, we get the better pitcher, the best offense in the league and a tag to boot. Play: St. Louis +101 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 33 41 0 -8.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 46 57 0 -10.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Philadelphia -104 over ATLANTA (5 innings)
The unreliability of middle relief has us focusing upon 5 innings of play here. Cole Hamels fits our profile well. Not only because he has pitched five beauties in a row, but also because Atlanta has struggled against LHPs thus far. The Braves are hitting only .220 v lefties and their .631 OPS southpaws ranks 28th in MLB. Hamels is one of the best southpaws in the league and he’s 3-0 on the road with a brilliant 1.23 ERA. The Braves were fortunate that the Nats didn’t sweep them after falling behind 5-1 going to the seventh. Brandon Beachy showed flashes of his upside in three starts last season. He has taken those flashes to a new level this season. His first full month has been fantastic but there are a few areas of concern. One is his 53% fly-ball rate, which gives him some vulnerability to the long ball. Another is his approach vs. LH bats. They have managed a .812 OPS against him compared with a .540 OPS posted by RH bats. He also has been helped by a low 25% hit rate. Beachy’s ERA and WHIP will elevate as his hit % does, and he still needs an out pitch vs. lefthanders. Beachy has yet to win at home, where he sports a 4.07 ERA and in no way are we going with the worst of it here. Play: Philadelphia -104 in the first 5 innings. (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Kansas City +169 over DETROIT
This one is simply the “play against a pitcher after a no-hitter” angle. We played that angle against Francisco Liriano this past week and he never made it out of the third inning. While we’re not comparing Liriano to Justin Verlander, the impact of throwing a ‘no no’ cannot be overstated. It is followed by swarms of media for three of four days, a slew of phone calls and emails from everyone he ever knew. It’s so difficult to be at your best the next time out. When a pitcher starts to “sense” a no-hitter his focus intensifies and he gets completely locked in during the final few innings. The next game becomes anti-climatic and that’s what we have here. He’ll get a standing ovation as he walks to the mound to begin the game and while he’s more than capable of beating anyone, the Royals are playing some pretty good ball right now. They’re three games over .500 and they just took two out of three in New York. We’re not going to make a case for Luke Hochevar over Justin Verlander. This is strictly a “situational” play that has a high percentage of cashing and a rich reward if we’re right. Play: Kansas City +169 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +101 over CINCINNATI
Bronson Arroyo has surrendered seven jacks in his four home starts. Giving up multiple home runs in a game is something Arroyo has done 42 times since the start of the 2006 season, which is most in the majors during that span. Now he’ll face a Cards team that has scored the most runs (193) in the majors. Arroyo’s ERA at Great American is 5.92 and it’s no mystery as to why. He’s a fly-ball pitcher and at this venue that’s a bad marriage. Also note that Arroyo has an extremely high 80% strand rate and the Cards are unlikely to leave 80% of their runners stranded. St. Louis hitters have the least amount of strikeouts in the NL and they really should be spraying the ball all over the place tonight. Kyle Lohse has ace-like surface stats after his first 52 IP (2.24 ERA, 0.86 WHIP). The key for him has been pinpoint control, as he has only walked 10 batters. Lohse is a poor bet to maintain these numbers over the long haul but the Dave Duncan effect is a powerful one and Lohse is 3-0 on the road with a 1.21 ERA. For now, we get the better pitcher, the best offense in the league and a tag to boot. Play: St. Louis +101 (Risking 2 units).
