4 Saturday w/analysis

Search

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Yesterday 0 2 1 -4.00 Units
Last 30 Days 31 41 1 -12.86 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 46 59 1 -14.58 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Toronto +106 over MINNESOTA
The Twins have the worst record in the majors with 12 wins in 36 games. They can’t hit, they’ve lost six in a row and Nick Blackburn instills fear into nobody. Blackburn got tattooed in the first half of last year before reinvented himself in second half with a strong groundball profile. That strong groundball tilt has carried over to this season but so what. His BB/K ratio is awful at 16/20 in 41 innings and his xERA of 4.90 is almost a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.95. The Twinkies have won just two of Blackburn’s eight starts and lost both of his home starts, where he sports an ERA of 4.82. The opposition is hitting .295 off Blackburn and that sounds just about right when you consider his career BAA is .294. One of the most amazing streaks in baseball belongs to Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes has not won in 25 straight starts and that’s an almost impossible feat. He’s pitched well enough to win a few games already this year and we can assure you that the Jays are going to dig a little deeper here to get Reyes a win. He’s only allowed two bombs and 11 walks in 36 innings while striking out 24. His last five starts have come against the Rays twice, Texas, Detroit and Boston and after facing that quartet he takes a huge step down in class when facing the anemic Twins. Reyes has a 2.89 ERA on the road. The Jays have won three in a row. Last night’s 2-0 win was a flattering score to the Twins, as the Jays belted out 13 hits after torching the Red Sox for 21 hits and 15 runs in their two previous games. Jays are warming up again and have a better chance of winning here than the Twins. Play: Toronto +106 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco –104 over CHICAGO
Doug Davis should not be touched, even by the truly desperate. You have to go back to 2005 to find Davis with a season xERA under 4.44, and a WHIP under 1.50. He was 29 then. He is 35 now, and missed most of last year due to elbow issues. Seriously, don't even think about it. Ryan Vogelsong has struck out 17 in 21 frames while walking just seven. He’s coming off a one-hit gem in 6.1 innings against the Rockies and has now allowed just 13 hits in 20.1 frames. Vogelsong is 33 years old and while he could be a late bloomer, he’s never had long lasting success at this level so this is not about him. This is all about playing against a complete stiff throwing for the Cubbies. Play: San Francisco –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Boston +125 over NEW YORK
Maybe the Yanks aren’t that strong. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 games and they’re having trouble hitting everyone. The Yanks have made the following pitchers look good in the last 10 games: Sean O’Sullivan, Kyle Davis, Clay Buchholz, Brad Penny and Vin Mazzaro. Those are five starters (and we use that term loosely) that would have a hard time cracking the #5 slot on 90% of the teams in this league. Alex Rodriguez (.261), Derek Jeter (.268) and Jorge Posado (.168) make up a third of the Yanks line-up and all are at the twilight of their careers and aren’t coming close to producing the way they used to. Russell Martin’s numbers have been declining for four years and counting and Nick Swisher has batted under .250 in three of the last four years. This year, he’s hitting .221 with two jacks. It’s not rocket science as to why the Yanks are laboring and probably will the rest of the year. Now they’ll have to face Josh Beckett and his .174 BAA and 1.99 ERA. Need we say more? Boston's scoring hasn't kept pace quite yet, but the team's OPS in May (.784) has been the best in the league and it’s only a matter of time before the hitting starts scoring runs in bunches. Yeah, C.C. Sabathia is tough but we get a pitcher of equal value, a nice tag and a team with an offense that is on the verge of exploding. Play: Boston +125 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +113 over OAKLAND
Can the White Sox resurrect their season? Winning series at Seattle and LAA could be the start of turning things around for the White Sox, not to mention a series-opening win last night. The South Side has the AL's best OPS this month (.795) and that offensive success has come with games at Seattle and Los Angeles. Their offense has the most pronounced left-right preference this season, with the team hitting just .631 against LHP (OPS) while posting a .719 mark against RHP and they’ll see another righty here in Tyler Ross. Ross went 1-4 with a 5.49 ERA in 39 IP for the A’s last year. He’s started this season extremely well with a 2.51 ERA but don’t buy it. It is clear that Ross has been extremely lucky this season, as his skills are weaker than they were a year ago. His strikeout rate and command have both slipped and his ERA can be credited to his having allowed no home runs, a situation that will change soon. His xERA (4.61) tells us that a regression is forthcoming and that’s what we’re buying. Gavin Floyd is an ace, period. He has a high strikeout rate, outstanding command and a 51% groundball profile. The fact that Tyler Ross is favored over Gavin Floyd is ludicrous and this is without question the biggest overlay on the board today. Play: Chicago +113 (Risking 2 units).

 

New member
Joined
Mar 9, 2010
Messages
5,707
Tokens
goodluck but disagree on most...and what you said about the yankees is pretty far off, not sure if you read fantasy stats or actually watch the games, but the past 2 losses for the yankees were from mishandled double plays and errors, not to sound like a homer but yanks had 14 baserunners against mazzaro so i wouldnt really call it struggling..... you want to bring up batting averages now? no comment there.. and talk about becketts low ERA, go check his ERA against the yankees 140 IP 6.00 ERA, i dont remember the last time he won in yankee stadium, if EVER... yankees had so many opportunities last night to win the game and they blew it, its not like the red sox dominated them, they won because cano missed an inning ending double play because he dropped the exchange... but i respect your plays but dont sit there and diss the yankees with ludicrous stats and meaningless attempts for people to tail ya..
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
46,540
Tokens
hahahaha.....never gets old reading YankeeFan's sputtering defense of the indefensible

MEANWHILE....Strong agreement with SF here, Sherwood.

Fun Fact - Chicago Cubs past 35 games at Home After a SU Win show a not-so-lusty 7-28 record. Quite simply, for the past eight MLB months, the North Siders seem almost incapable of putting together two game win streaks.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
46,540
Tokens
already on SF, so made an easy $10 parlay with both Red and White Socks.....pays $38

bol to us for a great Saturday
 

New member
Joined
Mar 9, 2010
Messages
5,707
Tokens
yeah well a rays fan against a yankees fan, never gets old

i am just stating my opinion sir, no disrespect to anyone but the stuff he said was so out of wack..
 

There's no such thing as leftover crack
Joined
Apr 2, 2005
Messages
5,920
Tokens
Generally respect your write-ups, but claiming Clay Buchholz would have a hard time cracking the rotation of 90% of MLB teams is just beyond absurd and basically laughable.
 

New member
Joined
Mar 9, 2010
Messages
5,707
Tokens
Generally respect your write-ups, but claiming Clay Buchholz would have a hard time cracking the rotation of 90% of MLB teams is just beyond absurd and basically laughable.

Agreed!! he has the best pure stuff on the entire team, he has a very good pitcher and his sinker 2seamer was moving all over last night

and then the batting average arguement is laughable as well...calling arod old, the guy doesnt realize he had an injury that kept him out of a few games and hasnt found his stroke yet, but before that injury all the analysts were saying he is on par for the MVP, which i believe is true once he gets his timing back. anyway goodluck, just dont make such absurd points...and the twins point about blackburn is silly, saying he got tattooed in the first half of LAST year, he has had some pretty good outings and if you wanna make yourself look silly look at what you said... blackburn had a dominant start last week against the red sox, but you just said the red sox are hitting well lately... which is it? they got shutdown by blackburn but now against the yankees they are hitting good? silly talk
 

There's no such thing as leftover crack
Joined
Apr 2, 2005
Messages
5,920
Tokens
Agreed!! he has the best pure stuff on the entire team, he has a very good pitcher and his sinker 2seamer was moving all over last night

Regarding Buchholz, I don't think anyone could one team whose rotation he couldn't crack. He's basically been mediocre so far this year, but I fully expect him to resemble an upper tier starter going forward.

...and the twins point about blackburn is silly, saying he got tattooed in the first half of LAST year, he has had some pretty good outings and if you wanna make yourself look silly look at what you said... blackburn had a dominant start last week against the red sox, but you just said the red sox are hitting well lately...

I disagree. He sucked for the majority of last season. Also, I watched almost all of his start against the Red Sox. His performance was nothing close to dominant. The game had a 25 MPH wind blowing straight in from center. The Red Sox hit line drives all over the place, often right at the defense. He was really lucky.

With that said, I like the picks.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 24, 2005
Messages
2,757
Tokens
goodluck but disagree on most...and what you said about the yankees is pretty far off, not sure if you read fantasy stats or actually watch the games, but the past 2 losses for the yankees were from mishandled double plays and errors, not to sound like a homer but yanks had 14 baserunners against mazzaro so i wouldnt really call it struggling..... you want to bring up batting averages now? no comment there.. and talk about becketts low ERA, go check his ERA against the yankees 140 IP 6.00 ERA, i dont remember the last time he won in yankee stadium, if EVER... yankees had so many opportunities last night to win the game and they blew it, its not like the red sox dominated them, they won because cano missed an inning ending double play because he dropped the exchange... but i respect your plays but dont sit there and diss the yankees with ludicrous stats and meaningless attempts for people to tail ya..
off the top of my head, beckett won at yankee stadium, when he eliminated them from the world series.

i agree, the yankees suck. don't know abt today, but they suck.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
46,540
Tokens
i agree, the yankees suck. don't know abt today, but they suck.

A post with which few - if any - right thinking Americans could find any disagreement.

:grandmais
 

RX Senior
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 30, 2007
Messages
14,393
Tokens
Very nice day sherwood........... isn't it great to rile up those yankee fans.........
 

AU NATURALE! SWING LOW SWEET CHARIOTS
Joined
Oct 15, 2007
Messages
3,507
Tokens
WOod I can feel u getting hottttttt bud ill b makin plays of mine bigger if u r on same side thru june
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
I could actually write a whole page as to why Buchholz numbers are a complete mirage but will wait until I go against him in a future bet.
 

There's no such thing as leftover crack
Joined
Apr 2, 2005
Messages
5,920
Tokens
It's understandable that you would think Buchholz is overrated or overvalued. However, I don't think there's a single team that couldn't find one guy in their rotation that they wouldn't drop so that they could plug Buchholz into that rotation. To write that Buchholz couldn't crack the rotation of 90 percent of MLB teams can't even be categorized a stretch. It's simply a ludicrous statement.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,907
Messages
13,439,523
Members
99,345
Latest member
08winlink
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com