Yesterday 3 1 0 +4.62 Units
Last 30 Days 33 41 1 -8.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 49 60 1 -9.96 Units
Boston –118 over NEW YORK
Rarely will you see us lay anything close to this in a baseball game but this one warrants it because the Red Sox, although favored, are undervalued here. The Yanks are reeling. They’ve lost four in a row, eight of 11 and they’ve lost to a lot of poor pitchers recently. They’ve also lost the first two games of this series and have been outscored 11-4. The last two pitchers the Yanks beat were Dave Bush and Kyle Davies and that pair couldn’t crack the line-up of most farm teams, let alone major league teams and now the Yanks will face one of the best lefties in the game in Jon Lester. All of Lester’s skills are tremendous. He’s whiffed 51 batters in 52 IP. His GB rate of 55% is among the best in the league and he has registered back-to-back seasons with sub-3.25 xERA. The man is the straight goods facing a Yanks lineup that features no .300 hitters and a bunch of aging vets batting around the .240 to .250 mark. Freddy Garcia has a 2.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. With an average fastball velocity of 87 MPH, his room for error is razor thin. His out pitch has been a split-finger fastball, which he is throwing in place of some change-ups. Once batters start making him throw that pitch for strikes, his current ERA is sure to spike. It's a real tribute to Garcia that he came back from three straight years of injury to post a near- full season at age 34. However, he's now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and his numbers to date are in for a big regression. The Red Sox have underachieved at the plate but they’re also the most potentially explosive club in the majors and frankly, this is a complete mismatch, both on the mound and at the dish. Play: Boston –118 (Risking 2.36 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 33 41 1 -8.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 49 60 1 -9.96 Units
Boston –118 over NEW YORK
Rarely will you see us lay anything close to this in a baseball game but this one warrants it because the Red Sox, although favored, are undervalued here. The Yanks are reeling. They’ve lost four in a row, eight of 11 and they’ve lost to a lot of poor pitchers recently. They’ve also lost the first two games of this series and have been outscored 11-4. The last two pitchers the Yanks beat were Dave Bush and Kyle Davies and that pair couldn’t crack the line-up of most farm teams, let alone major league teams and now the Yanks will face one of the best lefties in the game in Jon Lester. All of Lester’s skills are tremendous. He’s whiffed 51 batters in 52 IP. His GB rate of 55% is among the best in the league and he has registered back-to-back seasons with sub-3.25 xERA. The man is the straight goods facing a Yanks lineup that features no .300 hitters and a bunch of aging vets batting around the .240 to .250 mark. Freddy Garcia has a 2.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. With an average fastball velocity of 87 MPH, his room for error is razor thin. His out pitch has been a split-finger fastball, which he is throwing in place of some change-ups. Once batters start making him throw that pitch for strikes, his current ERA is sure to spike. It's a real tribute to Garcia that he came back from three straight years of injury to post a near- full season at age 34. However, he's now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and his numbers to date are in for a big regression. The Red Sox have underachieved at the plate but they’re also the most potentially explosive club in the majors and frankly, this is a complete mismatch, both on the mound and at the dish. Play: Boston –118 (Risking 2.36 units to win 2).
