Yesterday 1 0 0 +2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 30 41 1 -16.78 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 50 60 1 -7.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +221 over ATLANTA
First, the Braves are coming off a weekend series vs the Phillies so a letdown is possible. Secondly, this is just a two-game series and then the Braves head out to Arizona for two games followed by two games versus the Halos in Los Angeles, as interleague play gets underway. There’s a good chance the Astros get overlooked by the Braves. Brett Myers could have a big game should that be the case and even if it’s not he’s still capable of throwing a gem. Myers threw at least 6 IP in 32 of 33 starts last season. He was truly an elite pitcher and the proof was in his xERA of 3.33, which he maintained all season. Myers’ problems with the long ball are ruining his numbers right now. After a drop in hr/9 to 0.8 and hr/f to 9% last season he’s seen those numbers balloon back to 1.8 and 14% so far this season. Myers’ ERA is 5.01 but he’s faced the Reds three times, the Brewers twice and the Phillies once, thus the spike in his HR’s allowed numbers. That’s six of his eight starts against three of the strongest homerun and run producing lineups in the game. Other than that, his skills remain solid. Tommy Hanson has blossomed into one of the NL's most exciting starters. No doubt he can throw a gem here. However, the Braves are just 4-4 in his starts and that alone makes the Astros worthy of a look. This isn’t about playing against Hanson. This is all about taking back a huge tag on a proven pitcher against a club that is in an unfavorable spot. Play: Houston +221 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +123 over OAKLAND
This is a great matchup for Joel Pineiro and the Angels. Pineiro has made just three starts and comes in with a 2-0 record and an ERA of 1.33 and will face an A’s club that is seeing BB’s. The A’s offense is in the bottom tier of the league in all key offensive categories and that’s why they’re a .500 club. The A’s league-leading ERA will only go so far when they can’t hit. Pineiro is an elite groundball pitcher. His last two years he had GB rates of 55% and 60%. This year his GB/FB rate is 57%/29% so it’s no mystery or fluke that his ERA is so low. He should be able to breeze through this A’s lineup at this pitcher’s park. The Angels are hitting much better on the road, with a .295 BA compared to .238 BA at home. They’re 8-5 overall v lefties and will face one here that they’ve had plenty of success against. Anderson is 0-2 versus the Angels in his career with an ERA of 4.68. Combined, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu are 9-19 against Anderson (.483). The Angels are also 13-9 on the road while the A’s are a game under .500. The total in this game is 6½, so a pitcher duel is expected. With that in mind one has to like the Angels chances of manufacturing a couple of runs more than the A’s chances and with the tag on the visitor, they are the prudent choice. Play: L.A. Angels +123 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 30 41 1 -16.78 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 50 60 1 -7.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +221 over ATLANTA
First, the Braves are coming off a weekend series vs the Phillies so a letdown is possible. Secondly, this is just a two-game series and then the Braves head out to Arizona for two games followed by two games versus the Halos in Los Angeles, as interleague play gets underway. There’s a good chance the Astros get overlooked by the Braves. Brett Myers could have a big game should that be the case and even if it’s not he’s still capable of throwing a gem. Myers threw at least 6 IP in 32 of 33 starts last season. He was truly an elite pitcher and the proof was in his xERA of 3.33, which he maintained all season. Myers’ problems with the long ball are ruining his numbers right now. After a drop in hr/9 to 0.8 and hr/f to 9% last season he’s seen those numbers balloon back to 1.8 and 14% so far this season. Myers’ ERA is 5.01 but he’s faced the Reds three times, the Brewers twice and the Phillies once, thus the spike in his HR’s allowed numbers. That’s six of his eight starts against three of the strongest homerun and run producing lineups in the game. Other than that, his skills remain solid. Tommy Hanson has blossomed into one of the NL's most exciting starters. No doubt he can throw a gem here. However, the Braves are just 4-4 in his starts and that alone makes the Astros worthy of a look. This isn’t about playing against Hanson. This is all about taking back a huge tag on a proven pitcher against a club that is in an unfavorable spot. Play: Houston +221 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +123 over OAKLAND
This is a great matchup for Joel Pineiro and the Angels. Pineiro has made just three starts and comes in with a 2-0 record and an ERA of 1.33 and will face an A’s club that is seeing BB’s. The A’s offense is in the bottom tier of the league in all key offensive categories and that’s why they’re a .500 club. The A’s league-leading ERA will only go so far when they can’t hit. Pineiro is an elite groundball pitcher. His last two years he had GB rates of 55% and 60%. This year his GB/FB rate is 57%/29% so it’s no mystery or fluke that his ERA is so low. He should be able to breeze through this A’s lineup at this pitcher’s park. The Angels are hitting much better on the road, with a .295 BA compared to .238 BA at home. They’re 8-5 overall v lefties and will face one here that they’ve had plenty of success against. Anderson is 0-2 versus the Angels in his career with an ERA of 4.68. Combined, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu are 9-19 against Anderson (.483). The Angels are also 13-9 on the road while the A’s are a game under .500. The total in this game is 6½, so a pitcher duel is expected. With that in mind one has to like the Angels chances of manufacturing a couple of runs more than the A’s chances and with the tag on the visitor, they are the prudent choice. Play: L.A. Angels +123 (Risking 2 units).
