Yesterday 0 2 0 -4.00 Units
Last 30 Days 29 41 1 -18.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 50 62 1 -11.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +124 over CINCINNATI
We know that Edison Volquez has struggled with his control his entire career. We also know that guys coming off Tommy John surgery often battle control problems and when you walk batters at this park it’s a big problem. Thus far, Volquez has walked 33 batters in 42 frames and that has led to an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.65. Make no mistake, Volquez has some nasty stuff in his arsenal but he also comes with a big risk and that risk is more appealing when he’s taking back a tag. Besides, Matt Garza is quietly throwing better than almost anyone in the league. He has 65 k’s and just 16 walks in 50 innings. His ERA is 4.17 but his xERA is 2.60. He has been victimized by a crazy 42% hit rate. The fact that he has an ERA just over 4.00, despite his 42% hit rate highlights just how special his base skills have been. Garza is an elite pitcher and has just two wins in eight starts. That’s unjust and it’s why W/L records are the most misleading stat in baseball. Play: Chicago +124 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +140 over ARIZONA
The Padres’ newfound offense, first in the NL in runs, second in BA and third in OPS in May, takes on a D-Backs club that is among the league’s bottom dwellers this month in most major offensive categories. San Diego came in here last night and won the opener 8-4 and could easily win this one too. With a 0-1 record and seven no decisions, it’s easy to overlook Tim Stauffer. Stauffer went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP last season. He’s a former 1st rounder that had a huge year in a spot starter role. Inflated strand % helped his ERA but xERA confirms he was good. Elite groundball profile and control makes him a solid investment. Stauffer’s career 1.35 ERA against Arizona is his best among teams he’s faced more than once. Daniel Hudson has upside too. However, he’s a flyball pitcher and that makes him risky at Chase Field, where the gaps are large and balls spray all over the place. We get a hot Padres offense vs a cold D-Backs offense and we get a groundball pitcher v a fly-ball pitcher at Chase Field and we also get a pretty nice tag. Overlay. Play: San Diego +140 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON +102 over Baltimore
The fact that we get the red-hot Red Sox at home without having to lay anything makes them worthy of a bet. Remember, Boston started the year 2-10 and are now a game over .500 after rallying from a 6-0 deficit last night. Ya think the Red Sox aren’t feeling it? The reason Boston is a pooch in their own barn is because Tim Wakefield is on the mound. He’s 44 years old and has one pitch, the knuckleball, and it’s pretty safe he won’t be around much longer. Wakefield is a gamble but he’s a good gamble pitching for a club that can potentially score 6 to 8 runs against anyone and certainly against Zach Britton. Britton has outstanding surface stats (2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) but a lot of it has been luck and the Red Sox have seen him once already. Britton has been aided by an unsustainable 82% strand rate. He’s only struck out 29 batters in 52 frames, which confirms that the balls are in play and have been hit at people. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA suggesting some rough times ahead and who better than the Red Sox to expose this rookie? Play: Boston +102 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland –104 over KANSAS CITY
The Indians have the best record in the majors and have hit .328 and averaged 7.9 runs while going 6-2 against the Royals this season. They’ve outscored K.C. 43-9 during its four-game winning streak in the series. Sean O’Sullivan has a 3.79 ERA but don’t buy into that. He’s walked 16 and struck out 14 in 36 IP. His xERA is 5.42 and his career ERA in the minors was 5.08. In the spring he posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP and didn’t even make the team out of spring training. When a guy can’t crack the Royals rotation it says it all. This is a guy that is going to get ripped apart real soon and it likely begins here. Carlos Carrasco went 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 45 IP at Cleveland last year. He shook off 1.5 years of struggles with big second half breakout and acquitted self well in September call-up. Now inked into 2011 rotation, Carrasco has the command and GB% to make a smooth transition. He came off the DL in his last start and was rocked by the Rays but they were scorching at the time and this is his second game back. Carrasco has only allowed one bomb in 34 innings and half of his six starts have been of the quality variety. Having said that, this is all about playing the Indians against a way overvalued Sean O’Sullivan. Play: Cleveland -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 29 41 1 -18.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 50 62 1 -11.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +124 over CINCINNATI
We know that Edison Volquez has struggled with his control his entire career. We also know that guys coming off Tommy John surgery often battle control problems and when you walk batters at this park it’s a big problem. Thus far, Volquez has walked 33 batters in 42 frames and that has led to an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.65. Make no mistake, Volquez has some nasty stuff in his arsenal but he also comes with a big risk and that risk is more appealing when he’s taking back a tag. Besides, Matt Garza is quietly throwing better than almost anyone in the league. He has 65 k’s and just 16 walks in 50 innings. His ERA is 4.17 but his xERA is 2.60. He has been victimized by a crazy 42% hit rate. The fact that he has an ERA just over 4.00, despite his 42% hit rate highlights just how special his base skills have been. Garza is an elite pitcher and has just two wins in eight starts. That’s unjust and it’s why W/L records are the most misleading stat in baseball. Play: Chicago +124 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +140 over ARIZONA
The Padres’ newfound offense, first in the NL in runs, second in BA and third in OPS in May, takes on a D-Backs club that is among the league’s bottom dwellers this month in most major offensive categories. San Diego came in here last night and won the opener 8-4 and could easily win this one too. With a 0-1 record and seven no decisions, it’s easy to overlook Tim Stauffer. Stauffer went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP last season. He’s a former 1st rounder that had a huge year in a spot starter role. Inflated strand % helped his ERA but xERA confirms he was good. Elite groundball profile and control makes him a solid investment. Stauffer’s career 1.35 ERA against Arizona is his best among teams he’s faced more than once. Daniel Hudson has upside too. However, he’s a flyball pitcher and that makes him risky at Chase Field, where the gaps are large and balls spray all over the place. We get a hot Padres offense vs a cold D-Backs offense and we get a groundball pitcher v a fly-ball pitcher at Chase Field and we also get a pretty nice tag. Overlay. Play: San Diego +140 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON +102 over Baltimore
The fact that we get the red-hot Red Sox at home without having to lay anything makes them worthy of a bet. Remember, Boston started the year 2-10 and are now a game over .500 after rallying from a 6-0 deficit last night. Ya think the Red Sox aren’t feeling it? The reason Boston is a pooch in their own barn is because Tim Wakefield is on the mound. He’s 44 years old and has one pitch, the knuckleball, and it’s pretty safe he won’t be around much longer. Wakefield is a gamble but he’s a good gamble pitching for a club that can potentially score 6 to 8 runs against anyone and certainly against Zach Britton. Britton has outstanding surface stats (2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) but a lot of it has been luck and the Red Sox have seen him once already. Britton has been aided by an unsustainable 82% strand rate. He’s only struck out 29 batters in 52 frames, which confirms that the balls are in play and have been hit at people. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA suggesting some rough times ahead and who better than the Red Sox to expose this rookie? Play: Boston +102 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland –104 over KANSAS CITY
The Indians have the best record in the majors and have hit .328 and averaged 7.9 runs while going 6-2 against the Royals this season. They’ve outscored K.C. 43-9 during its four-game winning streak in the series. Sean O’Sullivan has a 3.79 ERA but don’t buy into that. He’s walked 16 and struck out 14 in 36 IP. His xERA is 5.42 and his career ERA in the minors was 5.08. In the spring he posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP and didn’t even make the team out of spring training. When a guy can’t crack the Royals rotation it says it all. This is a guy that is going to get ripped apart real soon and it likely begins here. Carlos Carrasco went 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 45 IP at Cleveland last year. He shook off 1.5 years of struggles with big second half breakout and acquitted self well in September call-up. Now inked into 2011 rotation, Carrasco has the command and GB% to make a smooth transition. He came off the DL in his last start and was rocked by the Rays but they were scorching at the time and this is his second game back. Carrasco has only allowed one bomb in 34 innings and half of his six starts have been of the quality variety. Having said that, this is all about playing the Indians against a way overvalued Sean O’Sullivan. Play: Cleveland -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
