Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 30 42 1 -18.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 51 64 1 -13.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Yankees +119 over Baltimore
The Yanks probably should have won on Monday after blowing a 5-1 lead in Tampa. They came right back with a strong performance yesterday to snap a funk and they have a great shot at keeping it going here. We were going to play against Zach Britton yesterday in Boston but the game was rained out so we’ll be glad to play against him here. Britton has outstanding surface stats (2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) but a lot of it has been pure luck. Britton has been aided by an unsustainable 82% strand rate. He’s only struck out 29 batters in 52 frames, which confirms that the balls are in play but have been hit right at people. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA suggesting some rough times ahead and that’s likely to begin here. The Yanks will get added motivation when they’re browsing on their laptops and see that a rookie is a -130 favorite over them. Bartolo Colon’s last three starts have come against Texas, Detroit and Boston. At age 37, his skills have been not only good, but elite: high strikeout rate (41 k’s, 10 BB in 43 IP) 46% GB%, 130 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). Colon is throwing harder than he did last season and after facing that aforementioned trio, he’ll welcome facing an O’s team that he threw three scoreless innings against earlier in the year. Play: N.Y. Yankees +119 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +142 over CINCINNATI
Charlie Morton has allowed just 41 hits in 46 innings and comes in with just one loss on the year. He has an ERA of 3.13 and his newfound sinker makes him extremely intriguing, especially since we know that his raw stuff is good. Morton’s elite 62% groundball rate is the best in the league among starters that have thrown 35 innings or more and that’s a key stat when wagering on pitchers in this park. Bronson Arroyo Bronson Arroyo is a legit workhorse. He has thrown 200+ IP in each of the last six seasons and other than his good control, the rest of his skills are unexciting. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is an ugly 37%/20%/42% and those numbers scream to stay away from him at Great American. In fact, Arroyo is 1-3 at home with an ERA of 5.64 and it’s no mystery as to why. The Pirates saw Arroyo in Cincinnati on April 15 and he was pulled after the fourth inning after surrendering nine hits and five runs. It’s also worth noting that Arroyo has walked seven and struck out nine over his last three starts and that’s another reason you should never lay –155 with him at Great American. The Reds have fallen behind by multiple runs in four of their last five games and you simply can’t keep winning that way. Play: Pittsburgh +142 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta –1 +109 over ARIZONA
Julio Teheran has ascended quickly thru the minors - he pitched on three levels in '10 - due mostly to his mature approach and tremendous feel. With a mid-90s fastball (92-96 mph) and a knockout changeup, Teheran has the arsenal to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for many years to come. Teheran has a quick, loose arm with nice deception in his delivery. Because he hides the ball in his delivery, his fastball looks even quicker. He only needs a smidgen more polish before he'll be in the Majors for a long time. He has a career 3.04 ERA and has made one start in the majors this year but it came in Philadelphia, not the easiest place to begin a career. More appealing is the Braves against Joe Saunders. Saunders have walked 24 and struck out 25 and will face a whole slew of seasoned Braves hitters. At Chase Field, Saunders has thrown 21.1 innings and has allowed 34 hits for a BAA of .395. Of those 34 hits, four have gone yard and with his command way down, his fly-ball rate up and nothing else to rely on, Saunders is a stiff with zero upside. The Braves are a small price because they have an unproven rookie going but he’s a much better option than Saunders. Additionally, the Braves bullpen is about as solid as it gets and that, too, gives them a big edge. Play: Atlanta –1 +109 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 30 42 1 -18.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 51 64 1 -13.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Yankees +119 over Baltimore
The Yanks probably should have won on Monday after blowing a 5-1 lead in Tampa. They came right back with a strong performance yesterday to snap a funk and they have a great shot at keeping it going here. We were going to play against Zach Britton yesterday in Boston but the game was rained out so we’ll be glad to play against him here. Britton has outstanding surface stats (2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) but a lot of it has been pure luck. Britton has been aided by an unsustainable 82% strand rate. He’s only struck out 29 batters in 52 frames, which confirms that the balls are in play but have been hit right at people. There's a nearly two-run gap between his ERA and xERA suggesting some rough times ahead and that’s likely to begin here. The Yanks will get added motivation when they’re browsing on their laptops and see that a rookie is a -130 favorite over them. Bartolo Colon’s last three starts have come against Texas, Detroit and Boston. At age 37, his skills have been not only good, but elite: high strikeout rate (41 k’s, 10 BB in 43 IP) 46% GB%, 130 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). Colon is throwing harder than he did last season and after facing that aforementioned trio, he’ll welcome facing an O’s team that he threw three scoreless innings against earlier in the year. Play: N.Y. Yankees +119 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +142 over CINCINNATI
Charlie Morton has allowed just 41 hits in 46 innings and comes in with just one loss on the year. He has an ERA of 3.13 and his newfound sinker makes him extremely intriguing, especially since we know that his raw stuff is good. Morton’s elite 62% groundball rate is the best in the league among starters that have thrown 35 innings or more and that’s a key stat when wagering on pitchers in this park. Bronson Arroyo Bronson Arroyo is a legit workhorse. He has thrown 200+ IP in each of the last six seasons and other than his good control, the rest of his skills are unexciting. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is an ugly 37%/20%/42% and those numbers scream to stay away from him at Great American. In fact, Arroyo is 1-3 at home with an ERA of 5.64 and it’s no mystery as to why. The Pirates saw Arroyo in Cincinnati on April 15 and he was pulled after the fourth inning after surrendering nine hits and five runs. It’s also worth noting that Arroyo has walked seven and struck out nine over his last three starts and that’s another reason you should never lay –155 with him at Great American. The Reds have fallen behind by multiple runs in four of their last five games and you simply can’t keep winning that way. Play: Pittsburgh +142 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta –1 +109 over ARIZONA
Julio Teheran has ascended quickly thru the minors - he pitched on three levels in '10 - due mostly to his mature approach and tremendous feel. With a mid-90s fastball (92-96 mph) and a knockout changeup, Teheran has the arsenal to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for many years to come. Teheran has a quick, loose arm with nice deception in his delivery. Because he hides the ball in his delivery, his fastball looks even quicker. He only needs a smidgen more polish before he'll be in the Majors for a long time. He has a career 3.04 ERA and has made one start in the majors this year but it came in Philadelphia, not the easiest place to begin a career. More appealing is the Braves against Joe Saunders. Saunders have walked 24 and struck out 25 and will face a whole slew of seasoned Braves hitters. At Chase Field, Saunders has thrown 21.1 innings and has allowed 34 hits for a BAA of .395. Of those 34 hits, four have gone yard and with his command way down, his fly-ball rate up and nothing else to rely on, Saunders is a stiff with zero upside. The Braves are a small price because they have an unproven rookie going but he’s a much better option than Saunders. Additionally, the Braves bullpen is about as solid as it gets and that, too, gives them a big edge. Play: Atlanta –1 +109 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
