Yesterday 1 1 0 +1.06 Units
Last 30 Days 32 40 1 -8.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 54 66 1 -9.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Minnesota +164 over ARIZONA
Brian Duensing is outperforming his skills, but there is potential value here, as he seems to be the type of pitcher that keeps his team in the game. The Twins have the worst record in baseball but they’re 4-3 when Duensing starts and that’s saying something. We mentioned yesterday that the Twins aren’t as bad as advertised and that there’s going to be some pretty sweet value on them because of that poor start. That’s evident again today, as the Snakes can lose to anyone at anytime regardless of the starters. Arizona has lost 17 of its last 24 interleague games. Ian Kennedy is pitching like an ace but his skills don’t support that. His strikeout rate is high but if he doesn’t strike you out, he’s prone to giving up fly-balls and line drives and his ERA at Chase Field is 4.01. In a fantasy draft, we would choose Kennedy over Duensing every time but in a ball game in which we get +164 with an undervalued Twinkies club against a beatable Snakes squad that has a horrible interleague record, we’ll take the tag every time and make no exception here. Overlay. Play: Minnesota +164 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +143 over FLORIDA
Let’s put aside the pitchers for a moment and talk about the Rays. The first thing to note is they have the best road record in baseball with a 14-6 mark. They lost yesterday and they’re 7-1 after a loss and they’ve won eight of their last 11 games in Florida. The Rays are one of the elite teams in the league and while Anibal Sanchez is pitching well, current Rays have a .333 BA against him. The Marlins have also lost three of four and that includes a two-game sweep at home by the Bad News Cubs. We’re not going to make a case for Andy Sonnastine against Sanchez because it’s impossible to do so. Sonnastine is 28 years old and has seen it all. In his career he’s started, he’s pitched long relief and short relief and he’s appeared in 125 games. He’s had stretches of brilliance and stretches of struggles. Sonnastine may get his rear-end handed to him but he’s capable of throwing a strong game too. So, with that in mind, we’ll gladly and confidently play the Rays taking back a sweet price in a venue that they win at close to an 80% rate at. Play: Tampa Bay +143 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND –105 over Cincinnati
This year's Battle for Ohio is darn near a battle for the best record in baseball. Both teams have been exceptional at times through the first quarter of the season but the Reds have been living on the edge while the Indians have not. In fact, Cinci has 13 come-from-behind wins, the most in the league and many of those deficits were by three runs or more. They just dropped two straight at home to the Pirates after falling behind again, only this time they didn’t come back. When the Reds faced an elite groundball pitcher in Charlie Morton on Wednesday, they looked like the Padres at Petco. Now they’ll face another elite groundball pitcher and a guy they’ve never seen in rookie Alex White. White is a tall and athletic pitcher who is tough to hit due to his impressive repertoire. He thrives with his explosive 87-95 mph groundball-inducing fastball to set up a hard slider that gets swings and misses. Both his heater and slider are dominant offerings. White mixes in a solid-average change-of-pace offering with splitter-like action. Pitch efficiency and command need to be enhanced in order for him to sit atop the Indians rotation but he’s an impressive prospect with a ton of upside. White was a first round selection in '09 and has a career 2.37 ERA in the minors. He’s made two starts this year and has 10 k’s in 12 innings including one quality start at home against the Tigers in which he went six full and allowed just two runs. Travis Wood is sporting a frustrating ERA (5.01) over his first nine starts this season. His balls in play profile of 34% GB, 24% line-drive and 42% fly-ball is an ugly one and that’s why he struggles. His last three starts have been rock solid but two of those came against the Astros. Wood has been feast or famine this season so which one will it be here? Consider that the Tribe are 15-4 at home and you have your answer. Play: Cleveland –105 (Risking 2.10 units to 2).
Last 30 Days 32 40 1 -8.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 54 66 1 -9.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Minnesota +164 over ARIZONA
Brian Duensing is outperforming his skills, but there is potential value here, as he seems to be the type of pitcher that keeps his team in the game. The Twins have the worst record in baseball but they’re 4-3 when Duensing starts and that’s saying something. We mentioned yesterday that the Twins aren’t as bad as advertised and that there’s going to be some pretty sweet value on them because of that poor start. That’s evident again today, as the Snakes can lose to anyone at anytime regardless of the starters. Arizona has lost 17 of its last 24 interleague games. Ian Kennedy is pitching like an ace but his skills don’t support that. His strikeout rate is high but if he doesn’t strike you out, he’s prone to giving up fly-balls and line drives and his ERA at Chase Field is 4.01. In a fantasy draft, we would choose Kennedy over Duensing every time but in a ball game in which we get +164 with an undervalued Twinkies club against a beatable Snakes squad that has a horrible interleague record, we’ll take the tag every time and make no exception here. Overlay. Play: Minnesota +164 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +143 over FLORIDA
Let’s put aside the pitchers for a moment and talk about the Rays. The first thing to note is they have the best road record in baseball with a 14-6 mark. They lost yesterday and they’re 7-1 after a loss and they’ve won eight of their last 11 games in Florida. The Rays are one of the elite teams in the league and while Anibal Sanchez is pitching well, current Rays have a .333 BA against him. The Marlins have also lost three of four and that includes a two-game sweep at home by the Bad News Cubs. We’re not going to make a case for Andy Sonnastine against Sanchez because it’s impossible to do so. Sonnastine is 28 years old and has seen it all. In his career he’s started, he’s pitched long relief and short relief and he’s appeared in 125 games. He’s had stretches of brilliance and stretches of struggles. Sonnastine may get his rear-end handed to him but he’s capable of throwing a strong game too. So, with that in mind, we’ll gladly and confidently play the Rays taking back a sweet price in a venue that they win at close to an 80% rate at. Play: Tampa Bay +143 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND –105 over Cincinnati
This year's Battle for Ohio is darn near a battle for the best record in baseball. Both teams have been exceptional at times through the first quarter of the season but the Reds have been living on the edge while the Indians have not. In fact, Cinci has 13 come-from-behind wins, the most in the league and many of those deficits were by three runs or more. They just dropped two straight at home to the Pirates after falling behind again, only this time they didn’t come back. When the Reds faced an elite groundball pitcher in Charlie Morton on Wednesday, they looked like the Padres at Petco. Now they’ll face another elite groundball pitcher and a guy they’ve never seen in rookie Alex White. White is a tall and athletic pitcher who is tough to hit due to his impressive repertoire. He thrives with his explosive 87-95 mph groundball-inducing fastball to set up a hard slider that gets swings and misses. Both his heater and slider are dominant offerings. White mixes in a solid-average change-of-pace offering with splitter-like action. Pitch efficiency and command need to be enhanced in order for him to sit atop the Indians rotation but he’s an impressive prospect with a ton of upside. White was a first round selection in '09 and has a career 2.37 ERA in the minors. He’s made two starts this year and has 10 k’s in 12 innings including one quality start at home against the Tigers in which he went six full and allowed just two runs. Travis Wood is sporting a frustrating ERA (5.01) over his first nine starts this season. His balls in play profile of 34% GB, 24% line-drive and 42% fly-ball is an ugly one and that’s why he struggles. His last three starts have been rock solid but two of those came against the Astros. Wood has been feast or famine this season so which one will it be here? Consider that the Tribe are 15-4 at home and you have your answer. Play: Cleveland –105 (Risking 2.10 units to 2).
