Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 32 40 1 -9.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 55 68 1 -11.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +141 over CHICAGO
The White Sox are now 5-13 at home after losing the opener last night and their bats are producing a lackluster 3.4 RPG and a .682 OPS. That’s ugly and now they’ll have to rely on Mark Buehrle to right the ship. Buehrle is coming off back-to-back quality starts but they came at Oakland and Seattle and those two parks could make Kirk Douglas look good. Buehrle’s margin for error is razor thin. His strikeout rate, command and groundball profile are all dragging in the wrong direction. Buehrle’s across-the-board skills decline threatens his ERA more than ever before and his ability to continue to outperform his xERA is clearly in question. Avoid him unless he shows signs of reversing some of the worrisome trends but that’s unlikely. Buehrle as a -150 favorite is a bad bet regardless of the outcome. Incidentally, the Dodgers are 9-4 against southpaws. Man, we never thought we’d be wagering on John Garland but the take-back against Buehrle and the South Side forces us to. Garland is actually having a very decent year. After getting hit hard in his season debut against the then red-hot Cards, he has thrown five solid games in a row. In fact, he threw at least six full in all of them and has not allowed a single jack in his last three. The opposition is hitting just .248 against Garland. Still, he’s risky and he’s going to get whacked this year on more than a few occasions. This may or may nor be that day but this one is all about taking back some great value on the Dodgers in a game they have at least an equal or better chance of winning. Play: Los Angeles +141 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +162 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yanks remain the most overvalued team in the league and if they were wearing any other uniform they’d be about –120 here. Fact is, the Yanks are around the .500 mark and will likely remain there the rest of the year. They are just not feared anymore and why should they be? Jeter is hitting about .130 with RISP and Swisher, Posada, Martin and Brett Gardiner aren’t far behind. Texeira is hitting .253, A-Rod is hitting .260, Granderson is swinging and missing at everything the past couple of weeks and even Mariano Rivera is no longer feared. We’re not even going to go into the pitchers because it doesn’t matter. The Yankees are an aging team that literally has no shot of finishing ahead of the Red Sox or Rays. They have one reliable pitcher on the staff and his name doesn’t begin with A.J. Yeah, they can win but they’re grossly overvalued, especially against lefties in which case their numbers are even worse. If you play against the Yanks all year with take-backs like this, you’ll make a small fortune and that’s exactly what we plan on doing unless they show us something different. Play: N.Y. Mets +162 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO/Houston over 7½ -104
1:05 PM EST. Living in Toronto and being very familiar with conditions here, we can tell you that it’s a gorgeous 24 C and mostly sunny. In other words, the roof will be open at that crap-hole of a ball park and in day games with the roof open, the balls fly out of this joint like mad. Brandon Morrow is 0-2 at home with an ERA of 8.31 and while that ERA can’t last, the fact is Morrow has two groundball outs and 18 fly-ball outs in his last two starts. That’s a disturbing profile and Morrow’s 30% groundball rate on the year is one of the worst in the majors. He can strike out a lot of batters but he can also throw a ton of pitches to do so. There’s always the high risk of Morrow not lasting past the fifth inning and with a late start to the year due to arm problems, the Jays are being cautious with him. Brett Myers was one of the few success stories for Houston last season, posting a 14-8 record and impressive 3.14 ERA. What's more, he overcame the gopheritis that plagued him a year earlier in Philadelphia but the home run demons are back again in 2011. Myers has allowed 10 jacks already in just 56 innings and things get worse from there. He's walking more hitters and striking out fewer, as indicated by the sizable drop in command. More of the balls put in play are falling for hits, and he's stranding fewer base-runners than ever. Myers May has been worse than his April and his 5.01 ERA is actually flattering, as his velocity is down from last year. Brett Myers is flirting with disaster and there’s no end in sight. The Jays could easily go over this number on their own today. Play: Toronto/Houston over 7½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Washington +140 over BALTIMORE
The Nats scored two touchdowns and a field goal last night and the O’s pitching staff is in a big mess right now due to that 15-inning game they played with the Yanks last Wednesday night. In that game they used every reliever they had available and were forced to use Thursday’s scheduled starter in relief on Wednesday. On Thursday they allowed 13 runs and followed that up by allowing 17 last night. That’s 30 runs against in the past two games. Over the past five games, the O’s relief staff has thrown an incredible 25.1 frames and over that span they’ve allowed 45 hits, 28 runs, walked 13, hit two batters and have a WHIP of 2.21. Jeremy Gurthrie averages six innings per start and that’s when things go his way. Guthrie’s 3.91 ERA is respectable but his skills are not. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that doesn’t strike out too many and that’s a combination you should stay far away from. His GB/FB rate is 35%/45% and unless he throws seven or eight strong today the O’s are in big trouble. By contrast John Lannan is an elite groundball pitcher and that alone makes him a much better option than Guthrie. However, we also have to be aware that his BB/SO ratio is pretty ugly and as a result, his ERA has plenty of short-term downside. What we know for sure is that Lannan can be damn tough if he gets through the first couple of innings. Against a reeling O’s pen and with a GB pitcher going against a FB pitcher and with a sweet tag to boot, the Nationals offer up all the value in this one. Play: Washington +140 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +107 over ARIZONA
When Scott Baker wakes up this morning and browses the Internet to see that Micah Owings is favored against him, Baker night choke on his corn flakes. The only thing Owings should be doing in the majors is pinch-hitting (.293 BA, 9 HR in 184 career AB). Owings went 14-17 with a 4.88 ERA in 45 starts for the Diamondbacks before being traded to Cincinnati in 2008. Last year with the Reds he went 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 22 relief appearances. This year he was 3-1 with a 4.85 ERA at Reno. In other words, things have been getting progressively worse for him and the only reason he’s pitching today is because the Snakes designated Armando Galarraga for assignment. “I know Micah’s experience, and how much of a competitor he is,” manager Kirk Gibson told the Diamondbacks’ official website. “Ultimately, I think experience had a lot to do with the decision to bring him up.” Notice the manager didn’t say, “he’s throwing well, or “we have confidence in him”. Owings is here for one game and that’s it. Scott Baker has an ERA under 4.00 and has struck out 48 in 50 frames. His control is bordering on elite and while he’s shown a propensity for running bad for stretches, he’s also very capable of throwing a complete gem against any team in the league. In any case, Owings favored over Baker is insulting to say the least and if that doesn’t fire up the Twins, nothing will. Play: Minnesota +107 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 32 40 1 -9.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 55 68 1 -11.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +141 over CHICAGO
The White Sox are now 5-13 at home after losing the opener last night and their bats are producing a lackluster 3.4 RPG and a .682 OPS. That’s ugly and now they’ll have to rely on Mark Buehrle to right the ship. Buehrle is coming off back-to-back quality starts but they came at Oakland and Seattle and those two parks could make Kirk Douglas look good. Buehrle’s margin for error is razor thin. His strikeout rate, command and groundball profile are all dragging in the wrong direction. Buehrle’s across-the-board skills decline threatens his ERA more than ever before and his ability to continue to outperform his xERA is clearly in question. Avoid him unless he shows signs of reversing some of the worrisome trends but that’s unlikely. Buehrle as a -150 favorite is a bad bet regardless of the outcome. Incidentally, the Dodgers are 9-4 against southpaws. Man, we never thought we’d be wagering on John Garland but the take-back against Buehrle and the South Side forces us to. Garland is actually having a very decent year. After getting hit hard in his season debut against the then red-hot Cards, he has thrown five solid games in a row. In fact, he threw at least six full in all of them and has not allowed a single jack in his last three. The opposition is hitting just .248 against Garland. Still, he’s risky and he’s going to get whacked this year on more than a few occasions. This may or may nor be that day but this one is all about taking back some great value on the Dodgers in a game they have at least an equal or better chance of winning. Play: Los Angeles +141 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +162 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yanks remain the most overvalued team in the league and if they were wearing any other uniform they’d be about –120 here. Fact is, the Yanks are around the .500 mark and will likely remain there the rest of the year. They are just not feared anymore and why should they be? Jeter is hitting about .130 with RISP and Swisher, Posada, Martin and Brett Gardiner aren’t far behind. Texeira is hitting .253, A-Rod is hitting .260, Granderson is swinging and missing at everything the past couple of weeks and even Mariano Rivera is no longer feared. We’re not even going to go into the pitchers because it doesn’t matter. The Yankees are an aging team that literally has no shot of finishing ahead of the Red Sox or Rays. They have one reliable pitcher on the staff and his name doesn’t begin with A.J. Yeah, they can win but they’re grossly overvalued, especially against lefties in which case their numbers are even worse. If you play against the Yanks all year with take-backs like this, you’ll make a small fortune and that’s exactly what we plan on doing unless they show us something different. Play: N.Y. Mets +162 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO/Houston over 7½ -104
1:05 PM EST. Living in Toronto and being very familiar with conditions here, we can tell you that it’s a gorgeous 24 C and mostly sunny. In other words, the roof will be open at that crap-hole of a ball park and in day games with the roof open, the balls fly out of this joint like mad. Brandon Morrow is 0-2 at home with an ERA of 8.31 and while that ERA can’t last, the fact is Morrow has two groundball outs and 18 fly-ball outs in his last two starts. That’s a disturbing profile and Morrow’s 30% groundball rate on the year is one of the worst in the majors. He can strike out a lot of batters but he can also throw a ton of pitches to do so. There’s always the high risk of Morrow not lasting past the fifth inning and with a late start to the year due to arm problems, the Jays are being cautious with him. Brett Myers was one of the few success stories for Houston last season, posting a 14-8 record and impressive 3.14 ERA. What's more, he overcame the gopheritis that plagued him a year earlier in Philadelphia but the home run demons are back again in 2011. Myers has allowed 10 jacks already in just 56 innings and things get worse from there. He's walking more hitters and striking out fewer, as indicated by the sizable drop in command. More of the balls put in play are falling for hits, and he's stranding fewer base-runners than ever. Myers May has been worse than his April and his 5.01 ERA is actually flattering, as his velocity is down from last year. Brett Myers is flirting with disaster and there’s no end in sight. The Jays could easily go over this number on their own today. Play: Toronto/Houston over 7½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Washington +140 over BALTIMORE
The Nats scored two touchdowns and a field goal last night and the O’s pitching staff is in a big mess right now due to that 15-inning game they played with the Yanks last Wednesday night. In that game they used every reliever they had available and were forced to use Thursday’s scheduled starter in relief on Wednesday. On Thursday they allowed 13 runs and followed that up by allowing 17 last night. That’s 30 runs against in the past two games. Over the past five games, the O’s relief staff has thrown an incredible 25.1 frames and over that span they’ve allowed 45 hits, 28 runs, walked 13, hit two batters and have a WHIP of 2.21. Jeremy Gurthrie averages six innings per start and that’s when things go his way. Guthrie’s 3.91 ERA is respectable but his skills are not. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that doesn’t strike out too many and that’s a combination you should stay far away from. His GB/FB rate is 35%/45% and unless he throws seven or eight strong today the O’s are in big trouble. By contrast John Lannan is an elite groundball pitcher and that alone makes him a much better option than Guthrie. However, we also have to be aware that his BB/SO ratio is pretty ugly and as a result, his ERA has plenty of short-term downside. What we know for sure is that Lannan can be damn tough if he gets through the first couple of innings. Against a reeling O’s pen and with a GB pitcher going against a FB pitcher and with a sweet tag to boot, the Nationals offer up all the value in this one. Play: Washington +140 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +107 over ARIZONA
When Scott Baker wakes up this morning and browses the Internet to see that Micah Owings is favored against him, Baker night choke on his corn flakes. The only thing Owings should be doing in the majors is pinch-hitting (.293 BA, 9 HR in 184 career AB). Owings went 14-17 with a 4.88 ERA in 45 starts for the Diamondbacks before being traded to Cincinnati in 2008. Last year with the Reds he went 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 22 relief appearances. This year he was 3-1 with a 4.85 ERA at Reno. In other words, things have been getting progressively worse for him and the only reason he’s pitching today is because the Snakes designated Armando Galarraga for assignment. “I know Micah’s experience, and how much of a competitor he is,” manager Kirk Gibson told the Diamondbacks’ official website. “Ultimately, I think experience had a lot to do with the decision to bring him up.” Notice the manager didn’t say, “he’s throwing well, or “we have confidence in him”. Owings is here for one game and that’s it. Scott Baker has an ERA under 4.00 and has struck out 48 in 50 frames. His control is bordering on elite and while he’s shown a propensity for running bad for stretches, he’s also very capable of throwing a complete gem against any team in the league. In any case, Owings favored over Baker is insulting to say the least and if that doesn’t fire up the Twins, nothing will. Play: Minnesota +107 (Risking 2 units).
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