Yesterday 1 4 0 -6.00 Units
Last 30 Days 32 42 1 -13.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 56 72 1 -17.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +126 over CHICAGO
The White Sox beat the Dodgers yesterday to even the series at 1-1 but they’re still four games under .500 at home and they’ve lost five of the last six games that Edwin Jackson has started. Current Dodger hitters have seen Jackson for a combined 75 AB’s and have a sweet .338 BA against him with an even sweeter .373 SLG% and .910 OPS. Those are some serious numbers and it’s not like Jackson is tearing it up these days. The opposition is batting .294 against him and his 4.53 ERA is not far off from his xERA of 4.33. Meanwhile, Hiroki Kuroda has elite skills right across the board. Outstanding control (15 BB) combined with a decent strikeout rate of 48 K’s in 60 frames combined with a strong groundball/fly-ball profile of 52%/33% makes Kuroda one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Kuroda has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of nine starts this season and one has to believe that the Dodgers chances of winning with Kuroda on the hill are better than the South Side’s chances. Play: Los Angeles +126 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +164 over N.Y. YANKEES
You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Yanks 7-3 win over the Mets yesterday. It was the Yankees first home win in their last seven games but it doesn’t change the fact that they continue to be way overvalued. As a result of that, we’ll continue to take back these big offerings against them and absolutely make no exception here. Ivan Nova has upside for sure but his BB/K (20/24) ratio needs serious help. He’s always working deep into counts and thus his pitch count is almost always high. Mike Pelfrey's improved pitching continues, as he has now recorded a quality start in four of his last five outings. He has seen his ERA decrease from 9.72 to 5.11 over that span. In 21.1 frames this month, Pelfrey has allowed just 16 hits and five earned runs for an ERA of 2.11 and a WHIP of 0.98. Pelfrey is risky because he, too, has a poor BB/SO ratio but the difference is he’s not the one laying –175. Play: N.Y. Mets +164 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +102 over BALTIMORE
Jordan Zimmerman is getting stronger and better with each passing start. He returned from Tommy John surgery last August and he flashed good skills, headlined by xERA, good command and GB profile. This year, his command is still outstanding and his velocity is slowly but surely returning. Zimmerman was slated to pitch Tuesday but gets an extra five days rest because that game was postponed by rain. Zimmermann is not hurt, with the break being part of the team's plan to limit his innings this year. Over his last two starts, Zimmerman has struck out 17 batters over 12.1 innings. He’s walked just 11 hitters all year in 48 frames and he should be extra sharp here with the extra days rest. Chris Tilman continues to get smacked around by RHers. He comes in with a 5.35 ERA and a 39%/45% GB/FB profile. He has a low strikeout rate and an ugly looking pen behind him. His 5.87 ERA from last year has not shown much improvement this season. Tilman and the O’s pen is not a good proposition to be laying anything with. Play: Washington +102 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 32 42 1 -13.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 56 72 1 -17.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +126 over CHICAGO
The White Sox beat the Dodgers yesterday to even the series at 1-1 but they’re still four games under .500 at home and they’ve lost five of the last six games that Edwin Jackson has started. Current Dodger hitters have seen Jackson for a combined 75 AB’s and have a sweet .338 BA against him with an even sweeter .373 SLG% and .910 OPS. Those are some serious numbers and it’s not like Jackson is tearing it up these days. The opposition is batting .294 against him and his 4.53 ERA is not far off from his xERA of 4.33. Meanwhile, Hiroki Kuroda has elite skills right across the board. Outstanding control (15 BB) combined with a decent strikeout rate of 48 K’s in 60 frames combined with a strong groundball/fly-ball profile of 52%/33% makes Kuroda one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Kuroda has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of nine starts this season and one has to believe that the Dodgers chances of winning with Kuroda on the hill are better than the South Side’s chances. Play: Los Angeles +126 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +164 over N.Y. YANKEES
You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Yanks 7-3 win over the Mets yesterday. It was the Yankees first home win in their last seven games but it doesn’t change the fact that they continue to be way overvalued. As a result of that, we’ll continue to take back these big offerings against them and absolutely make no exception here. Ivan Nova has upside for sure but his BB/K (20/24) ratio needs serious help. He’s always working deep into counts and thus his pitch count is almost always high. Mike Pelfrey's improved pitching continues, as he has now recorded a quality start in four of his last five outings. He has seen his ERA decrease from 9.72 to 5.11 over that span. In 21.1 frames this month, Pelfrey has allowed just 16 hits and five earned runs for an ERA of 2.11 and a WHIP of 0.98. Pelfrey is risky because he, too, has a poor BB/SO ratio but the difference is he’s not the one laying –175. Play: N.Y. Mets +164 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +102 over BALTIMORE
Jordan Zimmerman is getting stronger and better with each passing start. He returned from Tommy John surgery last August and he flashed good skills, headlined by xERA, good command and GB profile. This year, his command is still outstanding and his velocity is slowly but surely returning. Zimmerman was slated to pitch Tuesday but gets an extra five days rest because that game was postponed by rain. Zimmermann is not hurt, with the break being part of the team's plan to limit his innings this year. Over his last two starts, Zimmerman has struck out 17 batters over 12.1 innings. He’s walked just 11 hitters all year in 48 frames and he should be extra sharp here with the extra days rest. Chris Tilman continues to get smacked around by RHers. He comes in with a 5.35 ERA and a 39%/45% GB/FB profile. He has a low strikeout rate and an ugly looking pen behind him. His 5.87 ERA from last year has not shown much improvement this season. Tilman and the O’s pen is not a good proposition to be laying anything with. Play: Washington +102 (Risking 2 units).
