Yesterday 0 3 0 -6.00 Units
Last 30 Days 31 44 1 -19.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 56 75 1 -23.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Well, it's no secret that the run I'm on is ugly but I've been doing this for a very long time and know that it happens. When you wager on sports losing streaks are inevitable and when it happens it seems like every bounce goes against you. Instead of blaming anything or getting frustrated, you just have to stick with it and that's precisely the approach that I'm taking.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Seattle +102 over MINNESOTA
The Twins were swept in the desert over the weekend and have now lost 12 of their last 15 games. Overall, Minnesota has the worst record in the majors with a 15-30 record and one really has to wonder what all that losing is doing to their frame of mind. Losing is highly contagious and the Twins are in no position to be favored over the Mariners with Carl Pavano going. Pavano has some pretty ugly numbers. He’s allowed 63 hits in 54.1 innings for a BAA of .288. In those 63 innings he has a lousy 20 k’s. Pavano’s only saving grace is his pinpoint control and that keeps him in games sometimes but other than that all of his other skills have been on a steady decline. His 5.31 ERA is proof of a poor pitcher on a poor team. Jason Vargas is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last four starts and the M’s have won five in a row to improve to 22-24. Vargas extended his scoreless steak to 16 innings Wednesday, scattering four hits and striking out nine in a 3-0 win against the Angels. He, too, has pinpoint control, as his 14 walks in 58 frames will attest to. Vargas has struck out 41, he has a WHIP of 1.20 and an ERA of 3.39 and offers up a lot more value than his counterpart here. Play: Seattle +102 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +113 over Boston
Yeah, the Red Sox are great but how about a little respect for the Indians? They just swept the Reds, they own the best record in the majors and yet they’re a pooch at home with perhaps their best starter going. Justin Masterson has a long history of struggles vs. LH bats. Not this year: 51% GB%, 74 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under write-ups). He has been his normal elite self against RHers: 67% GB%, 106 BPV. His outstanding ERA, xERA and overall groundball rate of 57% confirms his overall growth and his new found success against LHers will help him sustain it. Masterson has allowed one bomb in nine starts covering 60.2 innings. Clay Buchholz is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. However, he has an 81% strand rate on the year and his overall numbers on the road are a much worse than at home. Buchholz' skills have changed a bit during recent seasons and those changes are not entirely positive. His yawning ERA/xERA (3.42/4.60) gap and pedestrian BPV of 43 indicate that another sub-3.00 ERA is unlikely with his current skills. Pay for xERA, not ERA and that says bet against him here. Play: Cleveland +113 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 31 44 1 -19.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 56 75 1 -23.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Well, it's no secret that the run I'm on is ugly but I've been doing this for a very long time and know that it happens. When you wager on sports losing streaks are inevitable and when it happens it seems like every bounce goes against you. Instead of blaming anything or getting frustrated, you just have to stick with it and that's precisely the approach that I'm taking.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Seattle +102 over MINNESOTA
The Twins were swept in the desert over the weekend and have now lost 12 of their last 15 games. Overall, Minnesota has the worst record in the majors with a 15-30 record and one really has to wonder what all that losing is doing to their frame of mind. Losing is highly contagious and the Twins are in no position to be favored over the Mariners with Carl Pavano going. Pavano has some pretty ugly numbers. He’s allowed 63 hits in 54.1 innings for a BAA of .288. In those 63 innings he has a lousy 20 k’s. Pavano’s only saving grace is his pinpoint control and that keeps him in games sometimes but other than that all of his other skills have been on a steady decline. His 5.31 ERA is proof of a poor pitcher on a poor team. Jason Vargas is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last four starts and the M’s have won five in a row to improve to 22-24. Vargas extended his scoreless steak to 16 innings Wednesday, scattering four hits and striking out nine in a 3-0 win against the Angels. He, too, has pinpoint control, as his 14 walks in 58 frames will attest to. Vargas has struck out 41, he has a WHIP of 1.20 and an ERA of 3.39 and offers up a lot more value than his counterpart here. Play: Seattle +102 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +113 over Boston
Yeah, the Red Sox are great but how about a little respect for the Indians? They just swept the Reds, they own the best record in the majors and yet they’re a pooch at home with perhaps their best starter going. Justin Masterson has a long history of struggles vs. LH bats. Not this year: 51% GB%, 74 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under write-ups). He has been his normal elite self against RHers: 67% GB%, 106 BPV. His outstanding ERA, xERA and overall groundball rate of 57% confirms his overall growth and his new found success against LHers will help him sustain it. Masterson has allowed one bomb in nine starts covering 60.2 innings. Clay Buchholz is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. However, he has an 81% strand rate on the year and his overall numbers on the road are a much worse than at home. Buchholz' skills have changed a bit during recent seasons and those changes are not entirely positive. His yawning ERA/xERA (3.42/4.60) gap and pedestrian BPV of 43 indicate that another sub-3.00 ERA is unlikely with his current skills. Pay for xERA, not ERA and that says bet against him here. Play: Cleveland +113 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
