Yesterday 2 0 0 +4.30 Units
Last 30 Days 32 42 1 -13.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 58 75 1 -19.40 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
PITTSBURGH +123 over Atlanta
The Pirates are surprisingly the NL’s hottest-hitting team over the last week, leading the Senior Circuit in BA, OBA and OPS. They’ve won four of their last five including two out of three over the Tigers at Comerica on the weekend. The Bucs scored 18 runs in Detroit and they’ve cashed in 26 runs over their last five games. By contrast, the Braves have lost four of five and scored a total of 11 runs over that stretch while batting .235. Charlie Morton's season of dominating performances continues. He needed only 106 pitches to knock off the Reds, and compiled an excellent 15/4 GB/FB ratio in keeping with his re-birth. Morton’s groundball rate is soaring at 62% for the year. When you look at his overall stats you’re going to see a weak BB/K ratio of 26/29. However, over his last two starts, Morton has struck out 10 and walked just two. Lefties are hitting him pretty good and that’s a bit of a concern but even that is improving and with Uggla, Prado, Gonzalez, Ross and Mather all batting right and with the Braves laboring badly at the dish, Morton could dominate again. He's now won three straight starts and holds a 2.62 ERA through 55 innings. Jair Jurrjens seemingly broke out two seasons ago with 14 wins, a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, only to break down last year - literally and figuratively - as he was derailed both by injury and poor performance. This year he’s 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA, however there’s a large gap between ERA and xERA. That xERA is 3.83 and it’s been driven by an unsustainable 84% strand rate. That’s not to say Jurrjens has been lucky. It just says he’s not as good as his 1.80 ERA suggests. He’s not striking out many (29 in 50 innings) and that says balls are in play but they’re being hit right at people. His 51% groundball profile and outstanding control makes him very worthy but don't look for 2009 again. A struggling Braves team is unappealing at best, laying juice on the road against Morton. Play: Pittsburgh +123 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +153 over BALTIMORE
The Royals have an abundance of pitching riches and they summoned one of them last week to make his Major League debut. Danny Duffy went four innings, allowed four hits, walked six and struck out four. The six walks were completely out of character for the 22-year-old Duffy. He’s a strong hurler who left the team in '10 spring training for personal reasons and returned in June in dominant fashion. He possesses considerable upside due to impeccable command and control and high strikeout potential. Duffy is able to hold his above average velocity (90-97 mph) deep into games and his deceptive delivery and arm slot keep hitters off-guard. He has nifty efficiency and can induce weak contact early in the count or garner the strikeout - particularly with his curveball - when more necessary. Duffy can overthrow at times and that’s precisely what happened in his debut. That was also at home and chances are good he’ll be more relaxed here. In 36 innings for the Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers, Duffy struck out 43, walked 10 and had a BAA of .227. He’s also a southpaw and the O’s are 4-9 against lefties (2-6 at home). Zach Britton has outstanding surface stats to go along with his 5-2 record. His 2.14 ERA is not going to last because it’s been driven by an 85% strand rate that cannot last. Britton is definitely a serviceable starter and he has some good skills but he’s not “this” good and an ERA regression is just around the corner. Orioles are overpriced here. Play: Kansas City +153 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +158 over N.Y. YANKEES
Ricky Romero has a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has 57 k’s in 58 frames and his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 56%/12%/32% is one of the best in the game. Romero is rock solid and has a BPV of 109 to prove he’s no fluke. C.C. Sabathia needs no introduction. He’s a legit ace. That said, he has averaged 240 IP the last four seasons. He had off-season knee surgery and even though it was minor, it's worrisome, given his size. And while his skills remain elite in aggregate, we’re seeing a lot more average starts than ever from C.C. Prior to shutting out the O’s in his last start the day after a 15-inning game, Sabathia has allowed six, five and four runs respectively in his three prior starts. That’s 15 runs in 19.2 innings and in no way are his numbers sharper than Romero’s. Neither are the Yanks bullpen numbers when compared to Toronto’s pen. Jays offense has been clicking with a .292 BA and 17 HR over the past 12 games and frankly, this price on the average Yanks is ludicrous. Play: Toronto +158 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +145 over Washington
The Crew are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. In fact, they’re 17-6 at Miller Park where they’ve hit 34 jacks, batted .292 and lead the league with an OPS of .862. Milwaukee will see Livan Hernandez here. Hernandez is a case study for what's possible for a pitcher with below-average skills when everything goes right. He gets into more jams than any pitcher in the league and therefore he escapes more jams too. His surface stats are presentable, especially his 3.64 ERA but it’s a complete mirage. On the road this season the opposition is hitting a robust .345 off him and he’s walked 17 while whiffing 15. His road ERA is 5.83 and even that’s flattering. The Brewers should and probably will ruin him early, especially when you consider that they’ve seen him once already this year and had no success. Chris Narveson is riding a four-start streak of pure quality starts and is facing a lineup that is sub-Mendoza against lefties. The Nats are hitting .199 against southpaws on the road and they’re 0-5 in those games. Lick your chops for this one and have Bob Marley’s Redemption Song playing in the background. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +145 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 32 42 1 -13.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 58 75 1 -19.40 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
PITTSBURGH +123 over Atlanta
The Pirates are surprisingly the NL’s hottest-hitting team over the last week, leading the Senior Circuit in BA, OBA and OPS. They’ve won four of their last five including two out of three over the Tigers at Comerica on the weekend. The Bucs scored 18 runs in Detroit and they’ve cashed in 26 runs over their last five games. By contrast, the Braves have lost four of five and scored a total of 11 runs over that stretch while batting .235. Charlie Morton's season of dominating performances continues. He needed only 106 pitches to knock off the Reds, and compiled an excellent 15/4 GB/FB ratio in keeping with his re-birth. Morton’s groundball rate is soaring at 62% for the year. When you look at his overall stats you’re going to see a weak BB/K ratio of 26/29. However, over his last two starts, Morton has struck out 10 and walked just two. Lefties are hitting him pretty good and that’s a bit of a concern but even that is improving and with Uggla, Prado, Gonzalez, Ross and Mather all batting right and with the Braves laboring badly at the dish, Morton could dominate again. He's now won three straight starts and holds a 2.62 ERA through 55 innings. Jair Jurrjens seemingly broke out two seasons ago with 14 wins, a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, only to break down last year - literally and figuratively - as he was derailed both by injury and poor performance. This year he’s 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA, however there’s a large gap between ERA and xERA. That xERA is 3.83 and it’s been driven by an unsustainable 84% strand rate. That’s not to say Jurrjens has been lucky. It just says he’s not as good as his 1.80 ERA suggests. He’s not striking out many (29 in 50 innings) and that says balls are in play but they’re being hit right at people. His 51% groundball profile and outstanding control makes him very worthy but don't look for 2009 again. A struggling Braves team is unappealing at best, laying juice on the road against Morton. Play: Pittsburgh +123 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +153 over BALTIMORE
The Royals have an abundance of pitching riches and they summoned one of them last week to make his Major League debut. Danny Duffy went four innings, allowed four hits, walked six and struck out four. The six walks were completely out of character for the 22-year-old Duffy. He’s a strong hurler who left the team in '10 spring training for personal reasons and returned in June in dominant fashion. He possesses considerable upside due to impeccable command and control and high strikeout potential. Duffy is able to hold his above average velocity (90-97 mph) deep into games and his deceptive delivery and arm slot keep hitters off-guard. He has nifty efficiency and can induce weak contact early in the count or garner the strikeout - particularly with his curveball - when more necessary. Duffy can overthrow at times and that’s precisely what happened in his debut. That was also at home and chances are good he’ll be more relaxed here. In 36 innings for the Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers, Duffy struck out 43, walked 10 and had a BAA of .227. He’s also a southpaw and the O’s are 4-9 against lefties (2-6 at home). Zach Britton has outstanding surface stats to go along with his 5-2 record. His 2.14 ERA is not going to last because it’s been driven by an 85% strand rate that cannot last. Britton is definitely a serviceable starter and he has some good skills but he’s not “this” good and an ERA regression is just around the corner. Orioles are overpriced here. Play: Kansas City +153 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +158 over N.Y. YANKEES
Ricky Romero has a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has 57 k’s in 58 frames and his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 56%/12%/32% is one of the best in the game. Romero is rock solid and has a BPV of 109 to prove he’s no fluke. C.C. Sabathia needs no introduction. He’s a legit ace. That said, he has averaged 240 IP the last four seasons. He had off-season knee surgery and even though it was minor, it's worrisome, given his size. And while his skills remain elite in aggregate, we’re seeing a lot more average starts than ever from C.C. Prior to shutting out the O’s in his last start the day after a 15-inning game, Sabathia has allowed six, five and four runs respectively in his three prior starts. That’s 15 runs in 19.2 innings and in no way are his numbers sharper than Romero’s. Neither are the Yanks bullpen numbers when compared to Toronto’s pen. Jays offense has been clicking with a .292 BA and 17 HR over the past 12 games and frankly, this price on the average Yanks is ludicrous. Play: Toronto +158 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +145 over Washington
The Crew are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. In fact, they’re 17-6 at Miller Park where they’ve hit 34 jacks, batted .292 and lead the league with an OPS of .862. Milwaukee will see Livan Hernandez here. Hernandez is a case study for what's possible for a pitcher with below-average skills when everything goes right. He gets into more jams than any pitcher in the league and therefore he escapes more jams too. His surface stats are presentable, especially his 3.64 ERA but it’s a complete mirage. On the road this season the opposition is hitting a robust .345 off him and he’s walked 17 while whiffing 15. His road ERA is 5.83 and even that’s flattering. The Brewers should and probably will ruin him early, especially when you consider that they’ve seen him once already this year and had no success. Chris Narveson is riding a four-start streak of pure quality starts and is facing a lineup that is sub-Mendoza against lefties. The Nats are hitting .199 against southpaws on the road and they’re 0-5 in those games. Lick your chops for this one and have Bob Marley’s Redemption Song playing in the background. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +145 (Risking 2 units).
