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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


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Toronto +150 over N.Y. YANKEES
1:05 PM EST. The Yanks made somewhat of a miracle comeback last night when they rallied for two in the eight and two in the ninth to break our hearts but it’s not going to deter us from playing against them again. The Yanks have been around –165 in both games of this series and should be 0-2. Now they’re the same price with Freddy Garcia on the hill and that’s as ridiculous as the first two games. Garcia’s ERA of 3.12 is a compete farce. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is about as ugly as it gets and now stands as follows: 32%/26%/42%. Current Hays are batting .321 against Garcia in 81 career AB’s and when he faced them in Toronto back on April 29, he lasted five frames and allowed five runs. Jo-Jo Reyes hasn’t won in 26 straight starts, which is one mark off the major-league record. However, he’s pitched well enough for the Jays to win at least five of his starts. In fact, Reyes has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts and in he’s only walked more than one batter in one of his nine starts. He has a 74 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) while Garcia’s BPV is 34. Lastly, no Yank has ever faced Reyes before and that, too, works in our favor. Play: Toronto +150(Risking 2 units).

Arizona +117 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings)
Ian Kennedy's one bad outing in his third start of the year hides just how well he's pitched overall. Aside from that blowup, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any start and that’s an outstanding feat when you consider that he’s pitched six of his 10 starts at home, one in Colorado and one in Cinci. The Snakes have won seven of his 10 starts and overall they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games. Kennedy has 56 K’s in 67 innings while walking just 17. He's a legit 3.50 ERA pitcher and one that could sustain a near-3.00 ERA if he could find a strikeout pitch against RH bats. Jason Hammel has shown pinpoint control and a strong groundball tilt against Rhers but it erodes against lefties. The Rocks have lost his last four starts and Hammel has given up 13 runs over his last 19 innings. Hammel’s room for error is very thin at Coors or anywhere else for that matter. Because this one is based on the starters and the D-Backs pen is shaky, the bet here is the first half of the game. Play: Arizona +117 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).

MILWAUKEE –1½ +132 over Washington
1:10 PM EST. Jason Marquis is 5-1 and that’s almost the same record as Jon Lester. That’s why W/L records are meaningless. Marquis was sidelined until August after elbow surgery (bone chips) and was vintage upon return. Of course, "vintage" is relative here. If you value mediocre stat consistency, he’s your guy. Marquis has never had exceptional velocity with a low 90's fastball, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he has made himself into a change-up artist throwing the pitch over 20% of the time. Thus far the results have been impressive but here’s the kicker: He came into the season as a pitcher that’s been seen dozens of times by just about everyone. Marquis has used the element of surprise up until now but they’ll be sitting on his pitches now that the element has been exposed. Expect a significant regression in his ERA. Zack Greinke has a 6.43 ERA and that’s ugly indeed. Thing is, he’s been completely unlucky with a 50% strand rate. Greinke’s skills are as good as ever, as he’s struck out 29 in 21 innings while walking just two and his xERA is 2.14. The Brewers have won three of Greinke’s four starts and for the first time in his career he’s getting a ton if run support. He’ll now make his fourth start of the year and it’s very likely going to be his sharpest. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +132 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle –103 over MINNESOTA
The M’s have won three of Erik Bedard’s last four starts and over that stretch the lefthander has thrown 27 frames and has allowed just four earned runs. Over his last two starts, Bedard has struck out 18 and walked two. He’s only had one bad outing all season and that came in Cleveland in his second start of the year. Bedard is getting stronger and is regaining the form that saw him dominate from 2006-2009. This year the opposition is hitting just .236 against him. Meanwhile, the opposition is hitting .297 against Brian Duensing. In four starts at Target Field, Duensing has an ERA of 6.00 and that’s with a very favorable strand percentage of 69%. The Twinkies won yesterday to snap another ugly funk but so what. They still have the major’s worst record and they’re tooth and nails to score or beat anyone. Play: Seattle –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).


**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.


**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
 

Gabriel Morency Rules!!
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nice 2-1 afternoon Sher:103631605..let's hope the snakes can win the first 5 innings
 

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