Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.64 Units
Last 30 Days 33 46 1 -18.64 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 60 81 1 -26.76 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati +144 over PHILADELPHIA
1:10 PM EST. Interesting game in that these two went well into the evening last night and finally completed their 19-inning marathon about 1:30 AM. What makes that so interesting is that this game starts less than 12 hours later and that means a whole lot of top players will be sitting. For the Phillies, Rollins, Polanco, Howard, Ibanez and Ruiz all played long hours and practically the whole game and for the Reds it was Stubbs, Phillips, Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Hernandez and Renteria. The difference is that the Reds players, aside from Rolen and Renteria, are a whole lot younger and there’s a good chance that Stubbs, Phillips, Votto and Bruce will all play. You can even check the starting line-ups before game time and see who is playing and who is not. So, for now, we’re calling this a play and will update it right before game time about 12:45 PM EST after we check line-ups to see if the Phillies are sitting “everyone”. In terms of the two pitchers, Cliff Lee and Homer Bailey, it’s damn close, as both are capable of dominating. Cliff Lee needs no introduction but Bailey might. After two months on the DL, his second half last season got our attention just like 2009's Sept/Oct (2.08 ERA) got our attention. Outstanding command (4BB/20 K’s in 26 IP), good groundball tilt, xERA and BPV** (for detailed explanation of BPV see bottom of page) are all very impressive and have been when he’s healthy. Bailey can deal, make no mistake about that and with a +144 take-back against what could potentially be a makeshift line-up, he and the Reds offer up some pretty sweet value here. Again, we’ll update this wager once we check line-ups and will post our findings. Play: Cincinnati +144 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City/BALTIMORE over 8½
12:30 PM EST. Today’s weather report at Camden Yards is partly cloudy, calm/light air out to left corner at 3MPH. In the last three years, Camden Yards produced 108 runs for every 100 runs produced in the average MLB park, and 126 HRs for every 100 homers. This is an extreme hitter's park that ranks fourth in the league as a run-producing park over the last three years behind Coors, U.S. Cellular and Yankee Stadium. Then we have the two chuckers in Jeff Francis and Jeremy Guthrie. Current O’s batters are hitting .396 off Francis with a .450 OBP and a 1.073 OPS. Current Royals are batting .395 off Guthrie with a .409 OBP and an off the charts OPS of 1.153. These are some serious numbers. Francis has been getting smacked around pretty good (.294 BAA) but his high strand % has kept his ERA respectable. Jeremy Guthrie’s 3.45 ERA is a complete fraud. He also has a very high strand percentage of 76% and an awful groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 34%/21%/45%. Guthrie has outstanding control but that’s his only useful skill and there’s no chance he keeps his ERA this low for an extended period of time. They’ll be plenty of base-runners and plenty of chances to score them and unless something goes horrible wrong, one or both of these teams should score a bunch. Current form of both pitchers and weather conditions strongly favor the over. Play: Kansas City/Baltimore over 8½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Florida -103 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Marlins are 14-7 on the road, they’ve won the first two games of this series and there’s nothing to suggest they won’t bring out the brooms here. Anibal Sanchez: Ready to join the elite? Can you name the only pitcher since 2006 to pitch a no-hitter and two one-hitters in the majors? Anibal Sanchez, that's who. 2010 marked the first season that Sanchez survived a full season for the Marlins giving them hope that 2011 could be the season that Sanchez takes a big step forward. So far so good. He has 58 k’s in 57 innings and just 20 walks. At just 27 years of age, Sanchez is thriving on a low-90s fastball with a nasty slider and change that he can throw with confidence regardless of the count. His ERA has been trending down for four years and he’s also taken a huge step in the WHIP department. Sanchez has gotten his control, once a huge weakness, under control. Put it all together and what do you have? A triple-digit BPV (102) that says Sanchez is ready to be included in any conversation about elite starting pitchers in the National League. This is an ace at a sub-ace price. The lack of a track record in the majors makes having any faith whatsoever in Ryan Vogelsong difficult. This is a career minor-leaguer that is now 33 years old. He has a terrific 1.93 ERA but an 84% strand rate has aided that immensely. Maybe he’s vastly improved and maybe he’s a late bloomer but we’re going to have to see more than five starts from a guy who has a career ERA of 5.49 in his previous 127 appearances and in no way is he on par with Sanchez. Play: Florida –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 33 46 1 -18.64 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 60 81 1 -26.76 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cincinnati +144 over PHILADELPHIA
1:10 PM EST. Interesting game in that these two went well into the evening last night and finally completed their 19-inning marathon about 1:30 AM. What makes that so interesting is that this game starts less than 12 hours later and that means a whole lot of top players will be sitting. For the Phillies, Rollins, Polanco, Howard, Ibanez and Ruiz all played long hours and practically the whole game and for the Reds it was Stubbs, Phillips, Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Hernandez and Renteria. The difference is that the Reds players, aside from Rolen and Renteria, are a whole lot younger and there’s a good chance that Stubbs, Phillips, Votto and Bruce will all play. You can even check the starting line-ups before game time and see who is playing and who is not. So, for now, we’re calling this a play and will update it right before game time about 12:45 PM EST after we check line-ups to see if the Phillies are sitting “everyone”. In terms of the two pitchers, Cliff Lee and Homer Bailey, it’s damn close, as both are capable of dominating. Cliff Lee needs no introduction but Bailey might. After two months on the DL, his second half last season got our attention just like 2009's Sept/Oct (2.08 ERA) got our attention. Outstanding command (4BB/20 K’s in 26 IP), good groundball tilt, xERA and BPV** (for detailed explanation of BPV see bottom of page) are all very impressive and have been when he’s healthy. Bailey can deal, make no mistake about that and with a +144 take-back against what could potentially be a makeshift line-up, he and the Reds offer up some pretty sweet value here. Again, we’ll update this wager once we check line-ups and will post our findings. Play: Cincinnati +144 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City/BALTIMORE over 8½
12:30 PM EST. Today’s weather report at Camden Yards is partly cloudy, calm/light air out to left corner at 3MPH. In the last three years, Camden Yards produced 108 runs for every 100 runs produced in the average MLB park, and 126 HRs for every 100 homers. This is an extreme hitter's park that ranks fourth in the league as a run-producing park over the last three years behind Coors, U.S. Cellular and Yankee Stadium. Then we have the two chuckers in Jeff Francis and Jeremy Guthrie. Current O’s batters are hitting .396 off Francis with a .450 OBP and a 1.073 OPS. Current Royals are batting .395 off Guthrie with a .409 OBP and an off the charts OPS of 1.153. These are some serious numbers. Francis has been getting smacked around pretty good (.294 BAA) but his high strand % has kept his ERA respectable. Jeremy Guthrie’s 3.45 ERA is a complete fraud. He also has a very high strand percentage of 76% and an awful groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 34%/21%/45%. Guthrie has outstanding control but that’s his only useful skill and there’s no chance he keeps his ERA this low for an extended period of time. They’ll be plenty of base-runners and plenty of chances to score them and unless something goes horrible wrong, one or both of these teams should score a bunch. Current form of both pitchers and weather conditions strongly favor the over. Play: Kansas City/Baltimore over 8½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Florida -103 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Marlins are 14-7 on the road, they’ve won the first two games of this series and there’s nothing to suggest they won’t bring out the brooms here. Anibal Sanchez: Ready to join the elite? Can you name the only pitcher since 2006 to pitch a no-hitter and two one-hitters in the majors? Anibal Sanchez, that's who. 2010 marked the first season that Sanchez survived a full season for the Marlins giving them hope that 2011 could be the season that Sanchez takes a big step forward. So far so good. He has 58 k’s in 57 innings and just 20 walks. At just 27 years of age, Sanchez is thriving on a low-90s fastball with a nasty slider and change that he can throw with confidence regardless of the count. His ERA has been trending down for four years and he’s also taken a huge step in the WHIP department. Sanchez has gotten his control, once a huge weakness, under control. Put it all together and what do you have? A triple-digit BPV (102) that says Sanchez is ready to be included in any conversation about elite starting pitchers in the National League. This is an ace at a sub-ace price. The lack of a track record in the majors makes having any faith whatsoever in Ryan Vogelsong difficult. This is a career minor-leaguer that is now 33 years old. He has a terrific 1.93 ERA but an 84% strand rate has aided that immensely. Maybe he’s vastly improved and maybe he’s a late bloomer but we’re going to have to see more than five starts from a guy who has a career ERA of 5.49 in his previous 127 appearances and in no way is he on par with Sanchez. Play: Florida –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
