Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 45 1 -14.86 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 62 82 1 -24.76 Units\
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
TORONTO/Chicago over 8½
Toronto will face lefty Mark Buehrle and that’s a plus for a Blue Jay offense that leads the AL by a wide margin in batting against southpaws (.842 OPS). Jays could be off and running against a soft-tosser like Buehrle. Toronto’s 46 stolen bases rank third in the AL, and the White Sox have been one of the easiest teams to run against (44 SB allowed in 51 attempts). Buehrle has traditionally outperformed his skills to post tolerable ERAs. His ability to continue to do so appears threatened by eroding skills. Even his once strong groundball tilt is trending in the opposite direction and is now 39%/44% in favor of the fly-ball. Buehrle has a low strikeout rate, an xERA of 5.02 and his only skill left is his great control and experience. His ability to continue to outperform xERA is clearly in question. Buehrle’s road ERA is 5.45 and that’s a lot closer to what his ERA should be based on his declining skills. Chicago’s offense has definitely been better recently -- the team’s .754 OPS in May ranks second in the AL. Like anyone else that is hoping for runs from the South Side, we don’t like those two rally killers, Adam Dunn and Omar Vizquel in there but this is an offense that should be scoring a whole lot more runs. Kyle Drabek has terrific stuff but he can’t throw strikes. He’s constantly behind in the count and against this lineup that’s asking for big trouble. Drabek has walked 37 and struck out 38 in 56 innings. Drabek has a 4.63 ERA, a xERA of 5.38 and that’s with a high strand rate of 76%. These are two explosive offenses that could easily go off here. It’s very cool in Toronto (and wet) and you can absolutely count on the roof being closed. Play: Toronto/Chicago over 8½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Boston +106 over DETROIT
When you wager on Tim Wakefield you’re always taking a chance but when you’re taking back a tag on the Red Sox it lowers the risk tremendously. The Red Sox are seeing beach balls and it’s not just one or two players. They’re scoring at a stupid pace. Boston has scored 14 or more runs in three of its last seven games. Over that stretch they have 88 hits. The next closest is the O’s with 73. They’ve also hit 11 jacks, scored 57 times and are batting .342 with eight stolen bases over that span. They’ll face Rick Porcello and he’s been dealing it recently. In fact, Porcello has allowed two runs or less in six straight. However, three of those six games were in Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota, arguably the three best pitcher’s park in the majors. Porcello’s last game was in Pittsburgh and when he faced the Yanks in between all those he came away looking better than he pitched. Porcello’s strand rate over his last six starts is a completely unsustainable 91%. He has upside and he has great control but he’s not nearly as good as his numbers suggest and a significant regression in his 3.08 ERA is forthcoming. Incidentally, Porcello’s ERA at Comerica is 5.25. Play: Boston +106 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +120 over MINNESOTA
Tyler Chatwood is facing a Twins nine that comes in to this series having averaged just 3.7 RPG in going 4-14 over their last 18. Chatwood has some problems, most notably more walks than strikeouts but his 4.01 ERA seems to match his prospect pedigree and his results in the minors. He leads the league in double-plays turned behind him and that’s due to his strong groundball profile. If Chatwood throws strikes he’s incredibly tough to beat and there’s a great chance he’ll thrive at this park against this anemic offense. Scott Baker might be the Twins ace but that’s like saying Clint Eastwood could outrun Kirk Douglas. Baker is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has already surrendered nine bombs in just 54 frames. He has an ERA of 8.68 at Target Field and the Twins have won just two of his nine starts. Angels plus a tag against this team is an easy call to make because they offer up all the value in this one. Play: L.A. Angels +120 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona -119 over HOUSTON
Here’s an interesting little tidbit. Brett Myers’ dad was a boxing promoter, trainer and hustler that worked with some big names and Brett was a boxer himself early on up until the age of about 14. Word to the D-Backs….don’t charge the mound. The only thing in Myers’ life that is getting knocked out these days is Myers himself. His velocity is way down, he’s already surrendered 12 jacks on the year and seven in his last 29 innings. Myers was a starter from 2002 to 2006 and opened 2007 in the rotation before being moved to the closer's role. When he arrived at spring training in ‘08 he was back in the rotation and was peeved. He never accepted it and was 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA in his first 17 starts. "I went to Charlie (he was with the Phillies then) and said, 'I'm mentally and physically beat down," Myers says. Myers could be in that same state of mind right now. He’s getting beat up badly with a BAA of .300 and an ERA of 5.00. Daniel Hudson’s skills are among the NL’s best. He has 18 walks and 60 K’s in 66 innings. His ERA is dropping fast and his groundball % is rising. While Hudson is not a groundball pitcher, he has gone from being an extreme flyball pitcher to one with a neutral GB/FB split. His strand rate is just 64% and when that normalizes he’ll be even better. This remains one of the game's best young pitchers. If he can continue to eliminate his flyball tilt, he will be a rotation anchor soon. Additionally, the D-Backs are on fire and we’ll continue to ride them. Despite the fact that the Snakes are favored, they’re undervalued. Play: Arizona –119 (Risking 2.38 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 34 45 1 -14.86 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 62 82 1 -24.76 Units\
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
TORONTO/Chicago over 8½
Toronto will face lefty Mark Buehrle and that’s a plus for a Blue Jay offense that leads the AL by a wide margin in batting against southpaws (.842 OPS). Jays could be off and running against a soft-tosser like Buehrle. Toronto’s 46 stolen bases rank third in the AL, and the White Sox have been one of the easiest teams to run against (44 SB allowed in 51 attempts). Buehrle has traditionally outperformed his skills to post tolerable ERAs. His ability to continue to do so appears threatened by eroding skills. Even his once strong groundball tilt is trending in the opposite direction and is now 39%/44% in favor of the fly-ball. Buehrle has a low strikeout rate, an xERA of 5.02 and his only skill left is his great control and experience. His ability to continue to outperform xERA is clearly in question. Buehrle’s road ERA is 5.45 and that’s a lot closer to what his ERA should be based on his declining skills. Chicago’s offense has definitely been better recently -- the team’s .754 OPS in May ranks second in the AL. Like anyone else that is hoping for runs from the South Side, we don’t like those two rally killers, Adam Dunn and Omar Vizquel in there but this is an offense that should be scoring a whole lot more runs. Kyle Drabek has terrific stuff but he can’t throw strikes. He’s constantly behind in the count and against this lineup that’s asking for big trouble. Drabek has walked 37 and struck out 38 in 56 innings. Drabek has a 4.63 ERA, a xERA of 5.38 and that’s with a high strand rate of 76%. These are two explosive offenses that could easily go off here. It’s very cool in Toronto (and wet) and you can absolutely count on the roof being closed. Play: Toronto/Chicago over 8½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Boston +106 over DETROIT
When you wager on Tim Wakefield you’re always taking a chance but when you’re taking back a tag on the Red Sox it lowers the risk tremendously. The Red Sox are seeing beach balls and it’s not just one or two players. They’re scoring at a stupid pace. Boston has scored 14 or more runs in three of its last seven games. Over that stretch they have 88 hits. The next closest is the O’s with 73. They’ve also hit 11 jacks, scored 57 times and are batting .342 with eight stolen bases over that span. They’ll face Rick Porcello and he’s been dealing it recently. In fact, Porcello has allowed two runs or less in six straight. However, three of those six games were in Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota, arguably the three best pitcher’s park in the majors. Porcello’s last game was in Pittsburgh and when he faced the Yanks in between all those he came away looking better than he pitched. Porcello’s strand rate over his last six starts is a completely unsustainable 91%. He has upside and he has great control but he’s not nearly as good as his numbers suggest and a significant regression in his 3.08 ERA is forthcoming. Incidentally, Porcello’s ERA at Comerica is 5.25. Play: Boston +106 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +120 over MINNESOTA
Tyler Chatwood is facing a Twins nine that comes in to this series having averaged just 3.7 RPG in going 4-14 over their last 18. Chatwood has some problems, most notably more walks than strikeouts but his 4.01 ERA seems to match his prospect pedigree and his results in the minors. He leads the league in double-plays turned behind him and that’s due to his strong groundball profile. If Chatwood throws strikes he’s incredibly tough to beat and there’s a great chance he’ll thrive at this park against this anemic offense. Scott Baker might be the Twins ace but that’s like saying Clint Eastwood could outrun Kirk Douglas. Baker is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has already surrendered nine bombs in just 54 frames. He has an ERA of 8.68 at Target Field and the Twins have won just two of his nine starts. Angels plus a tag against this team is an easy call to make because they offer up all the value in this one. Play: L.A. Angels +120 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona -119 over HOUSTON
Here’s an interesting little tidbit. Brett Myers’ dad was a boxing promoter, trainer and hustler that worked with some big names and Brett was a boxer himself early on up until the age of about 14. Word to the D-Backs….don’t charge the mound. The only thing in Myers’ life that is getting knocked out these days is Myers himself. His velocity is way down, he’s already surrendered 12 jacks on the year and seven in his last 29 innings. Myers was a starter from 2002 to 2006 and opened 2007 in the rotation before being moved to the closer's role. When he arrived at spring training in ‘08 he was back in the rotation and was peeved. He never accepted it and was 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA in his first 17 starts. "I went to Charlie (he was with the Phillies then) and said, 'I'm mentally and physically beat down," Myers says. Myers could be in that same state of mind right now. He’s getting beat up badly with a BAA of .300 and an ERA of 5.00. Daniel Hudson’s skills are among the NL’s best. He has 18 walks and 60 K’s in 66 innings. His ERA is dropping fast and his groundball % is rising. While Hudson is not a groundball pitcher, he has gone from being an extreme flyball pitcher to one with a neutral GB/FB split. His strand rate is just 64% and when that normalizes he’ll be even better. This remains one of the game's best young pitchers. If he can continue to eliminate his flyball tilt, he will be a rotation anchor soon. Additionally, the D-Backs are on fire and we’ll continue to ride them. Despite the fact that the Snakes are favored, they’re undervalued. Play: Arizona –119 (Risking 2.38 units to win 2).
