Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.46 Units
Last 30 Days 36 44 1 -8.80 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 66 84 1 -19.84 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +131 over CHICAGO
After yesterdays win the Pirates are now 15-12 on the road and they continue to punish the Cubs. Pittsburgh has won six of their last seven series against the Cubs including the first series this year and the first two games of this series. Jeff Karstens quietly has been one of the NL's best starter’s against RH bats with a high strikeout rate, outstanding command, 54% GB% and a 121 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom oh these write-ups). He has not been nearly as effective against LHers (38% GB%, 31 BPV) but the Cubbies haven’t got many left-handed hitters and this works heavily in Karstens favor. That’s not to say there isn’t risk because there is. Karstens is surrendering too many jacks and those two-run and three-run bombs can ruin your day real fast. Despite allowing nine HR’s in 45.1 innings, his ERA is just 3.57 and thus, if Karstens keeps the ball in the yard he has a great chance of winning every time he takes the mound. Ryan Dempster has been awful at home with a 5.03 ERA. Current Pirates have seen him plenty of times (98 to be exact) and they’re hitting .286 off him with a .386 OBP, a .459 SLG and a .845 OPS. The Pirates love playing here because they thrive here and with the Cubbies batting .129 over the past two days, the Bucs easily get the call. Play: Pittsburgh +131 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +106 over OAKLAND
We certainly don’t like the O’s have lost the first two games of this series and hit into four double plays yesterday but this is really a must play with Zach Britton taking back a tag against Guillermo Moscoso. Oakland acquired Moscoso from Texas in January '11 and this is his third organization (originally pitched in Detroit's system from '05 thru '08). Moscoso has some Major League experience, pitching 14.2 innings with the Rangers in '09 and '10. He has average velocity - 88-92 mph and he also has an average curveball that he often hangs, leaving him vulnerable to the long ball. In his debut against the Angels five days ago he went six full and allowed just three hits and no runs. That looks sweet on paper but what the pitching line doesn’t show is that just two of the 24 batters he faced hit the ball on the ground. 16 balls were fly-ball outs and he struck out three and walked three. That’s ugly, very ugly in fact and it just means he was as lucky as they come. Moscoso is 27-years-old and there’s a reason he’s been with three clubs and has spent most of his career in the minors. This guy is a middle relief pitcher that is filling in until Tyler Ross and/or Brandon McCarthy comes off the DL. Zach Britton has an elite groundball/fly-ball profile of 56%/29% and that alone makes him a much better choice than his counterpart. The O’s have won seven of his 10 starts and his ERA of 2.35 is one of the best in the league. Moscoso favored against Britton is incorrect. Play: Baltimore +106 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
If anyone wants to be in a free fantasy baseball pool for a chance to win 500.00 message me. It's an automated draft so you don't have to be online. Just set your rankings. Only 9 spots left, you'll compete against 19 others and you only have to beat one person to win a prize. Finish first and you win 500.00. Starts Monday and runs til end of August.
Last 30 Days 36 44 1 -8.80 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 66 84 1 -19.84 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +131 over CHICAGO
After yesterdays win the Pirates are now 15-12 on the road and they continue to punish the Cubs. Pittsburgh has won six of their last seven series against the Cubs including the first series this year and the first two games of this series. Jeff Karstens quietly has been one of the NL's best starter’s against RH bats with a high strikeout rate, outstanding command, 54% GB% and a 121 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom oh these write-ups). He has not been nearly as effective against LHers (38% GB%, 31 BPV) but the Cubbies haven’t got many left-handed hitters and this works heavily in Karstens favor. That’s not to say there isn’t risk because there is. Karstens is surrendering too many jacks and those two-run and three-run bombs can ruin your day real fast. Despite allowing nine HR’s in 45.1 innings, his ERA is just 3.57 and thus, if Karstens keeps the ball in the yard he has a great chance of winning every time he takes the mound. Ryan Dempster has been awful at home with a 5.03 ERA. Current Pirates have seen him plenty of times (98 to be exact) and they’re hitting .286 off him with a .386 OBP, a .459 SLG and a .845 OPS. The Pirates love playing here because they thrive here and with the Cubbies batting .129 over the past two days, the Bucs easily get the call. Play: Pittsburgh +131 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +106 over OAKLAND
We certainly don’t like the O’s have lost the first two games of this series and hit into four double plays yesterday but this is really a must play with Zach Britton taking back a tag against Guillermo Moscoso. Oakland acquired Moscoso from Texas in January '11 and this is his third organization (originally pitched in Detroit's system from '05 thru '08). Moscoso has some Major League experience, pitching 14.2 innings with the Rangers in '09 and '10. He has average velocity - 88-92 mph and he also has an average curveball that he often hangs, leaving him vulnerable to the long ball. In his debut against the Angels five days ago he went six full and allowed just three hits and no runs. That looks sweet on paper but what the pitching line doesn’t show is that just two of the 24 batters he faced hit the ball on the ground. 16 balls were fly-ball outs and he struck out three and walked three. That’s ugly, very ugly in fact and it just means he was as lucky as they come. Moscoso is 27-years-old and there’s a reason he’s been with three clubs and has spent most of his career in the minors. This guy is a middle relief pitcher that is filling in until Tyler Ross and/or Brandon McCarthy comes off the DL. Zach Britton has an elite groundball/fly-ball profile of 56%/29% and that alone makes him a much better choice than his counterpart. The O’s have won seven of his 10 starts and his ERA of 2.35 is one of the best in the league. Moscoso favored against Britton is incorrect. Play: Baltimore +106 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
If anyone wants to be in a free fantasy baseball pool for a chance to win 500.00 message me. It's an automated draft so you don't have to be online. Just set your rankings. Only 9 spots left, you'll compete against 19 others and you only have to beat one person to win a prize. Finish first and you win 500.00. Starts Monday and runs til end of August.
