Pineda winning by avoiding the pull
Mariners pitcher is one of baseball's best at forcing hitters to go opposite field
Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
ESPN Insider
You'd be forgiven if you didn't expect Michael Pineda to out-pitch his Cy Young rotation mate, Felix Hernandez, especially at the outset of his rookie season. Before King Felix, the Seattle Mariners' organization had a poor track record in developing young pitchers, so perhaps Pineda was overlooked.
But the 22-year-old has been more effective than most expected in his first two months in the majors. After his dominant 7-inning, 9-strikeout start against the San Diego Padres on May 21, Pineda ranked among the league leaders in most statistical categories. His high strikeout total and low home run and walk rates suggest that Pineda has been more than just lucky so far. His fantastic start has kept the afterthought Mariners in the thick of the American League West race.
What's the secret to his success? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing pointed out that hitters have rarely pulled the ball against the young Mariners' right hander. Baseball Info Solutions' data confirms this: Pineda has allowed hitters to pull just 31 percent of batted balls, compared to the 2011 league average of 40 percent. Only Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw have been better at avoiding the pulled ball.
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Going the other way
Michael Pineda has allowed the third-fewest amount of pulled balls against him.
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What's the big deal about pulling the ball? The answer is in the numbers. Batters hit over 60 points higher and slug 200 points better when pulling the ball compared to going the other way, and they hit over four times more home runs to the pull field.
As the astute reader might point out, pulled ground balls, line drives and fly balls are very different animals. Pineda gets relatively few ground balls; in fact, he's been one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball, largely thanks to his heater. When hitters have caught up to Pineda's 96 mph fastball this season, they've hit a fly ball 61 percent of the time, the third-highest fly ball rate of any pitcher in baseball this year.
Hitters pull ground balls, on average, 54 percent of the time, compared to just 12 percent hit to the opposite field. However, only 24 percent of fly balls are hit to the hitters' pull side, compared to 40 percent of flies hit the other way.
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Power to all fields
A breakdown of the type and direction of batted balls in 2011.
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Fly ball pitchers like Pineda have to be cautious, because when hitters do pull the ball on a fly, the damage can often be catastrophic. An amazing 26 percent of pulled fly balls have left the park as home runs this year, which is actually down slightly from 27 percent last year. By comparison, only 4 percent of fly balls hit to center and 2 percent of opposite field flies result in home runs.
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Beware of the pull
MLB averages by direction of fly balls in 2011.
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As Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Info recently illustrated, Pineda has shown an affinity for the outside corner to both right-handed hitters and lefties, especially early in the at-bat. With Pineda living on the outside edge, hitters are forced to go with the pitch and push it to the opposite field, where they usually do the least damage.
Through his May 21 start, just 12 of the 71 fly balls (17 percent, compared to the league average of 24 percent) Pineda have been pulled. Combine that with a spacious home ball park in Safeco Field, and Pineda's home run rate is predictably low, which in turn has helped keep his ERA low.
But will he keep it up? Will Pineda continue to induce opposite field fly balls and avoid the deadly pulled side as he has so far in 2011?
The short answer is yes, to a certain extent. For the 100 pitchers last season who induced at least 200 batted balls both before and after July 1 of last season, their ground ball and fly ball rates correlated extremely well, at the .80 level. This suggests that Pineda is likely to continue inducing fly balls at the high rate we've seen from him so far.
However, the pulled fly ball percentage correlation was weaker at .34. For now we can presume that there's a reasonable chance Pineda will continue to avoid pulled fly balls, but he likely will regress to the league average rate a good amount. Of course, his home park will still be on his side; just ask Adrian Beltre how he feels about Safeco Field's treatment of fly balls. Even with some regression, Pineda has a very bright future ahead of him.</offer>
Mariners pitcher is one of baseball's best at forcing hitters to go opposite field
Ben Jedlovec
Baseball Info Solutions
ESPN Insider
You'd be forgiven if you didn't expect Michael Pineda to out-pitch his Cy Young rotation mate, Felix Hernandez, especially at the outset of his rookie season. Before King Felix, the Seattle Mariners' organization had a poor track record in developing young pitchers, so perhaps Pineda was overlooked.
But the 22-year-old has been more effective than most expected in his first two months in the majors. After his dominant 7-inning, 9-strikeout start against the San Diego Padres on May 21, Pineda ranked among the league leaders in most statistical categories. His high strikeout total and low home run and walk rates suggest that Pineda has been more than just lucky so far. His fantastic start has kept the afterthought Mariners in the thick of the American League West race.
What's the secret to his success? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing pointed out that hitters have rarely pulled the ball against the young Mariners' right hander. Baseball Info Solutions' data confirms this: Pineda has allowed hitters to pull just 31 percent of batted balls, compared to the 2011 league average of 40 percent. Only Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw have been better at avoiding the pulled ball.
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Going the other way
Michael Pineda has allowed the third-fewest amount of pulled balls against him.
| Player | Pulled | Up the Middle | Opposite Field |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gio Gonzalez | 28% | 37% | 36% |
| Clayton Kershaw | 31% | 34% | 36% |
| Michael Pineda | 31% | 38% | 31% |
| Aaron Harang | 31% | 42% | 27% |
| Roy Oswalt | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| League Average | 40% | 35% | 25% |
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What's the big deal about pulling the ball? The answer is in the numbers. Batters hit over 60 points higher and slug 200 points better when pulling the ball compared to going the other way, and they hit over four times more home runs to the pull field.
As the astute reader might point out, pulled ground balls, line drives and fly balls are very different animals. Pineda gets relatively few ground balls; in fact, he's been one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball, largely thanks to his heater. When hitters have caught up to Pineda's 96 mph fastball this season, they've hit a fly ball 61 percent of the time, the third-highest fly ball rate of any pitcher in baseball this year.
Hitters pull ground balls, on average, 54 percent of the time, compared to just 12 percent hit to the opposite field. However, only 24 percent of fly balls are hit to the hitters' pull side, compared to 40 percent of flies hit the other way.
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Power to all fields
A breakdown of the type and direction of batted balls in 2011.
| Category | Pulled | Up the Middle | Opposite Field |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Balls | 54% | 34% | 12% |
| Line Drives | 38% | 36% | 26% |
| Fly Balls | 24% | 36% | 40% |
| All | 40% | 35% | 25% |
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Fly ball pitchers like Pineda have to be cautious, because when hitters do pull the ball on a fly, the damage can often be catastrophic. An amazing 26 percent of pulled fly balls have left the park as home runs this year, which is actually down slightly from 27 percent last year. By comparison, only 4 percent of fly balls hit to center and 2 percent of opposite field flies result in home runs.
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Beware of the pull
MLB averages by direction of fly balls in 2011.
| Category | Pulled | Up the Middle | Opposite Field |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | 0.402 | 0.194 | 0.141 |
| Slugging Percentage | 1.297 | 0.426 | 0.283 |
| Home Run Rate | 26.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
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As Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Info recently illustrated, Pineda has shown an affinity for the outside corner to both right-handed hitters and lefties, especially early in the at-bat. With Pineda living on the outside edge, hitters are forced to go with the pitch and push it to the opposite field, where they usually do the least damage.
Through his May 21 start, just 12 of the 71 fly balls (17 percent, compared to the league average of 24 percent) Pineda have been pulled. Combine that with a spacious home ball park in Safeco Field, and Pineda's home run rate is predictably low, which in turn has helped keep his ERA low.
But will he keep it up? Will Pineda continue to induce opposite field fly balls and avoid the deadly pulled side as he has so far in 2011?
The short answer is yes, to a certain extent. For the 100 pitchers last season who induced at least 200 batted balls both before and after July 1 of last season, their ground ball and fly ball rates correlated extremely well, at the .80 level. This suggests that Pineda is likely to continue inducing fly balls at the high rate we've seen from him so far.
However, the pulled fly ball percentage correlation was weaker at .34. For now we can presume that there's a reasonable chance Pineda will continue to avoid pulled fly balls, but he likely will regress to the league average rate a good amount. Of course, his home park will still be on his side; just ask Adrian Beltre how he feels about Safeco Field's treatment of fly balls. Even with some regression, Pineda has a very bright future ahead of him.</offer>
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