5 Monday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Florida +109 over Arizona
Despite the D-Backs being on fire, the pitching matchup here heavily favors the Marlins and that makes them a must play. Florida has the best road record in the league at 16-9. Mike Stanton (.979), Gaby Sanchez (.947), Logan Morrison (.915) and Greg Dobbs (.902) all boast OPS’s over .900 this month and they’ll face the extremely hittable Joe Saunders. Juan Miranda (1.029) is the only Diamondback this month with an OPS over .800. In 60 IP, Saunders has walked 27 and struck out 30. At Chase Field, Saunders is 0-2 in five starts with a BAA of .383 and an ERA of 6.26. Chris Volstad showed some upside a few years ago as a green sinkerballer with promising skill flashes, as well as a sub-3.00 ERA in his first 84 IP. He has fallen off the radar in recent years but at age 24, there's still some untapped upside here. Volstad’s xERA of 4.17 is lower than his actual ERA of 5.40 and that’s because of a low strand rate of 64%. The Marlins have won six of his nine starts this year and 10 of his last 13 starts overall. Volstad has faced some damn tough starters over that stretch that include Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, David Price, Hiroki Kuroda, Madison Bumgarner, and Matt Cain. They’ve also played their last two series at Chavez Ravine and AT&T Park in San Fran and after facing some tough pitching at some tough parks they might explode against a garbage pitcher in an extreme hitter’s park. Play: Florida +111 (Risking 2 units).

Houston +123 over CHICAGO
The Doug Davis experiment (or should we say the grasping at straws experiment) didn’t work and now the Cubs are going to plan B. Plan B comes in the name of Rodrigo Lopez, a 35-year-old career stiff that went 7-16 for the Snakes last year and posted an ERA of 4.85. Lopez was in the Braves organization a few days ago when they and the Cubs pulled off a minor-league trade and Lopez was subsequently called up for this start. Other than good control, he doesn't bring anything to the table. And while Lopez’s 2.59 ERA and 44 K in 59 IP at AAA-Gwinnett looks good, his MLB history says he's nothing more than quad-A fodder. Aneury Rodriguez is still seeking his first major league victory but he’s not pitching badly. He has a 2.38 ERA in his last two outings, but the Astros have provided him little support. He’s been given a combined five runs in his five major league starts and his confidence and skills keep getting sharper. The Cubs are just a poor favorite and you can double that at home, where they play sloppy baseball and own a below .500 record. Lastly, the Astros continue to pace the NL in stolen base efficiency, with an 86% success rate (42-for-49). The Cubs have only attempted 17 steals as a team, 10 successfully and with the ability to manufacture runs and with the likelihood of some guys getting on base, the Astros are more appealing here than the Cubs. Play: Houston +123 (Risking 2 units).

Milwaukee/CINCINNATI over 9
Ya think the Reds are happy to be home after going 2-8 on their just completed 10 game trip? Cincinnati has won seven of its last nine at Great American and in most of those wins they’ve had to rally from multiple runs down. In any event, the Reds have the most potent offense against left-handed pitching in the league by a wide margin (.880 OPS versus southpaws) and will face one here in Chris Narverson. Narverson was whacked in his last start in Washington. It was Narverson’s second sub four-inning start in his last six starts with the other one being against these same Reds on April 25 in which he surrendered seven runs in 2.1 innings. That was at Miller Park. Narverson’s last three starts show an alarming fly-ball tilt and it would appear that after some moderate success, the hitters have caught up to this career journeyman. Travis Wood is 2-2 at home but he sports an ugly ERA of 6.31. The Brewers certainly have to be sick about hearing how inept they are on the road but they have the second-best OPS over the past week (.774) and even if they lose here, they are likely to score a bunch, just as the Reds are. Play: Milwaukee/Cincinnati over 9 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Texas +107 over TAMPA BAY
Derek Holland has an ERA of 2.51 in his last four road starts. Holland is a true one split away type. He has been fantastic against LH bats and only the amazing 77% GB% vs. LH bats of Brett Anderson is higher than Holland's 69% GB% mark. Against righties that GB mark drops significantly but Holland remains a legit breakout candidate and we’ll gladly take out chances with him against Wade Davis. Davis has some of the worst skills a starting pitcher can have and as soon as the Rays get some healthy starters back, Davis will be headed back down where he belongs. He has a horrible BB/K ratio of 28/30. He has one of the worst GB%/FB% profiles in the majors at 32%/52%. His 3.71 ERA is a complete mirage, as his xERA of 5.71 is more accurate. All his skills, including a 1.67 WHIP of his last four starts does not align with a 3.71 ERA. If the below the surface stats are right and they usually are, the chances of Davis ending up with an ERA under 4.00 and keeping his job are slim and none. Play: Texas +107 (Risking 2 units).

SEATTLE –110 over BALTIMORE
Is there a team in the majors that looked worse over this past weekend than the Orioles? In three games in Oakland, they had one extra base hit and batted .204. It also appears as though they may have lost Adam Jones to an injury and that can’t help either. Fact is, the Orioles looked putrid in Oakland and even in the four-run fifth yesterday it was aided by two walks and a blown call at third on a bunt attempt, otherwise they may not have scored any. They drew 15 walks on the weekend and scored eight runs total with four runs coming in that aforementioned inning. The M’s took two out of three from the Yanks. They’ve won nine of their last 11 games and they’re just 1½-games out of first. We could go into the starting pitchers here but does it really matter? The O’s pen is awful, the offense is awful, their current state of mind is definitely in question and the O’s 24-27 record is a complete and utter fraud. This is a cheap lay on the surging M’s and if you only make one bet today, this should be it. Play: Seattle –110 (Risking 2 units).

**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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While I've no particular argument agains the notion of TEX +107 tonight, I'll respectfully respond to this:

Davis has some of the worst skills a starting pitcher can have and as soon as the Rays get some healthy starters back, Davis will be headed back down where he belongs.

The Rays signed Davis to a multi year deal in late March and you can be sure that he is locked in as an integral part of their current and future strategies. They have no one at this time that could even replace him given that the 5th spot in the TBR rotation is itself currently under stern review following DL of Jeff Neimann and the (now) third season of Andy Sonnanstine declining from his own seeming peek of late 2007 through all of 2008.

While many of his core ratios need refining, he's got an ERA under 4 over his past 39 starts and allows less than 9 hits per 9 IP. Only eight times in his past 35 starts has he allowed 4+ ER


Count us in tonight using the Under 8.5 for a Regular and best to us all for a profitable night and week ahead
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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One of key tactics employed by the current TBRO since late 2007 is to identify pitchers with longer term starting potential and getting them signed to multi-year deals before they are arbitration-eligible.

This puts them in a much better spot to make trades as they did with Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza and also to retain a core three to four SP without undue financial stress as seen in many other teams where their top one or two SP are raking $10m+ salaries.
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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Agree barman. You dont beat TB too many times on trades.
 

Don't assume people in charge know what they are d
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Nice start sherwood.
2-0 and leading in Tex/TB......long way to go.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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I put at least ten minutes into composing the WadeDavis Ain't So Bad post and look how he repays me for that free pub!
 

Member
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I put at least ten minutes into composing the WadeDavis Ain't So Bad post and look how he repays me for that free pub!

LOL Barman. Like the old saying goes, numbers don't lie. In this case the "beneath the surface stats" don't lie. In any event it's just one lousy game and you know your stuff.
 

Don't assume people in charge know what they are d
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4-0 with a tough nut left to bring out the broom!
Sensational night, and I thank you!
 

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Thanks Coast. It's been a rough year thus far so it's nice to get a night like this. Long, long season.
 

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