How wiseguys view the NBA Finals
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Already, before the NBA finals have even started, it's been a fascinating series. The storylines are nice: Evil LeBron versus Beloved Dirk. Emotional Mark Cuban versus Collected Pat Riley.
And from a gambling perspective, it's been clear from the moment that the lines and series odds were posted that the public was leaning toward the Dallas Mavericks. Most places opened series odds at Heat minus-200, and they are now hovering around Heat minus-175. Meanwhile, the Game 1 line opened at most places as Miami minus-5. By Friday afternoon it had settled a half-point half lower and has remained at Miami minus-4.5.
In other words, given the standard four-point advantage for home court, this is practically an even matchup at a neutral site. "I actually had Miami as just 0.8 points higher in my power rating," said Erin Rynning, the Vegas vet who pegged the Memphis Grizzlies as a playoff threat in one of my postseason preview podcasts. "So the market is bearing that out, meaning there isn't enough value to make that bet for me right now."
<OFFER>The Dallas lean could be about sentimentality; it wouldn't be the first time the public bet with its heart. Or it could be about hatred for the Miami Heat; it wouldn't be the first time the public bet with its conscience. Or it could be about perception; Dallas has been on an unprecedented roll to end the regular season and begin the playoffs, including an epic 15-game ATS win streak that has never been seen before (but the Mavs are also just 2-2 in their past four games, indicating that bookmakers have finally caught up).
Whatever the reason, it's clear the public wants the Mavs to win this series. But what do the wiseguys think? Over the past three days I have polled four different gamblers. Each one has his own style: Rynning is a classic handicapper who watches every game. Geoff Kulesa of wunderdog.com, dives deep into stats and looks for trends. The Sports Boss prefers a sabermetric approach. And then there's Vegas Runner, who keeps his ear to the street and likes to track steam moves, meaning the early bets wiseguys make.
Normally, I'm of the belief that you have to get your money down early -- any value in the line is pounded out by wiseguys within the first 24 hours. But these playoffs have been different. In some instances, you may be better off waiting as long as you can to bet. Here's why:
Rynning says: "I haven't played anything. At this point I lean towards Miami in the series and I like the direction it's moving, down from minus-190. But it's not priced where I thought it should be. I think it is two pretty even teams; I have Miami a little bit better from a power-rating perspective. But what I am worried about with Dallas is they have so much experience and they are so well-coached and their zone might make things difficult for Miami.
"Meanwhile Jason Kidd is one of the most underrated players in the playoffs. It was his D on Kobe that was so good, and against Oklahoma City, in fourth quarter, he played great D on Durant and forced him into game-changing turnovers. Now the question is, who does he match up with against Miami? And I don't see how Dallas can guard LeBron.
"The marketplace has definitely been on Dallas, while I give the edge to Miami. But I wouldn't play the series price unless it got to at least minus-159."
Kulesa says: "Dallas is a damn good team. If you remove the games in which Nowtizki or Tyson Chandler were out and just include the ones where they were both on the floor, Dallas has a 64-16 record and is 54-23-3 ATS. Based on a sample of 6,000 picks I can track through my site, nearly two-thirds of people are on Dallas.
"Personally, though, I give the series edge to Miami. But I don't know if I'll play it yet.
"You always hear 'Defense wins championships,' and I think that does apply in the NBA Finals. Miami is clearly the better defensive team, and has allowed opponents fewer points per game overall. But Miami is a tremendous 14 points per game better in the last five games. In the Finals the past seven years, blindly betting the team allowing fewer points per game would have you hitting 66 percent against the spread.
"If I had to do anything I would bet Miami, and if it was Miami -150 I would put a decent amount on them. But at minus-200, if you do this bet a hundred times you probably break even."
VegasRunner says: "The wiseguys did what they've done the entire postseason, and that's get ahead of the betting market because they know that recreational money will outweigh wiseguy money.
"In fact, the majority of all early plays were nothing more than an attempt to jump in front of the line move. And almost all true positions were late steam that came after the public forced the books to adjust, and ultimately offered betting value because the line was out of whack. Those late moves were the real positions that they kept.
"For the NBA Finals, the wiseguys steamed the Mavs to win the series … then also steamed them in Game 1 at plus-5 and on the money line.
"The problem for piggybackers is whether or not wiseguys will keep that position or if they were simply getting ahead of the market again. Even though the Heat are the public team, it's become obvious that the recreational bettors will be on the Mavs in Game 1. Those same rec bettors have backed the Mavs in the series, according to most of the books I know.
"That seems to be a case of hating on Miami since it's a star-studded type of team, and we know fans and bettors aren't shy about backing the underdog in championship-type games and series. We see it in every Super Bowl when the ML offers betting value on the favorite right before kickoff.
"Since the majority of recreational money gets bet on game day, we may still see more adjusting take place. Don't be surprised to see a buy-back if the series price keeps dropping."
The Sports Boss says: "Dallas has covered nearly 60 percent on the season, including 66 percent of road games. In addition they covered 13 of 20 road games this regular season versus playoff teams.
"ATS-wise, I think we will see some value on Dallas' side in this series. Specifically, I will be targeting the games in Miami as potential bigger bets on Dallas, as I see any number above Heat minus-4 as value on the Mavs. I had Vegas setting the initial line right at that minus-5 range, similar to what we saw Miami laying versus Chicago in the Eastern Conference finals. Straight up, this really pits two teams that are very similar -- more perimeter-based, outside-shooting, slashing types with underrated half-court defenses -- and the weaknesses of each team in their frontcourts are offset, for the most part.
"If -- and this is a big if -- Caron Butler can come back and give anything to the Mavs, I like them to avenge the Finals loss of five years ago, and for Dirk to finally get his long-awaited Larry O'Brien trophy."
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Already, before the NBA finals have even started, it's been a fascinating series. The storylines are nice: Evil LeBron versus Beloved Dirk. Emotional Mark Cuban versus Collected Pat Riley.
And from a gambling perspective, it's been clear from the moment that the lines and series odds were posted that the public was leaning toward the Dallas Mavericks. Most places opened series odds at Heat minus-200, and they are now hovering around Heat minus-175. Meanwhile, the Game 1 line opened at most places as Miami minus-5. By Friday afternoon it had settled a half-point half lower and has remained at Miami minus-4.5.
In other words, given the standard four-point advantage for home court, this is practically an even matchup at a neutral site. "I actually had Miami as just 0.8 points higher in my power rating," said Erin Rynning, the Vegas vet who pegged the Memphis Grizzlies as a playoff threat in one of my postseason preview podcasts. "So the market is bearing that out, meaning there isn't enough value to make that bet for me right now."
<OFFER>The Dallas lean could be about sentimentality; it wouldn't be the first time the public bet with its heart. Or it could be about hatred for the Miami Heat; it wouldn't be the first time the public bet with its conscience. Or it could be about perception; Dallas has been on an unprecedented roll to end the regular season and begin the playoffs, including an epic 15-game ATS win streak that has never been seen before (but the Mavs are also just 2-2 in their past four games, indicating that bookmakers have finally caught up).
Whatever the reason, it's clear the public wants the Mavs to win this series. But what do the wiseguys think? Over the past three days I have polled four different gamblers. Each one has his own style: Rynning is a classic handicapper who watches every game. Geoff Kulesa of wunderdog.com, dives deep into stats and looks for trends. The Sports Boss prefers a sabermetric approach. And then there's Vegas Runner, who keeps his ear to the street and likes to track steam moves, meaning the early bets wiseguys make.
Normally, I'm of the belief that you have to get your money down early -- any value in the line is pounded out by wiseguys within the first 24 hours. But these playoffs have been different. In some instances, you may be better off waiting as long as you can to bet. Here's why:
Rynning says: "I haven't played anything. At this point I lean towards Miami in the series and I like the direction it's moving, down from minus-190. But it's not priced where I thought it should be. I think it is two pretty even teams; I have Miami a little bit better from a power-rating perspective. But what I am worried about with Dallas is they have so much experience and they are so well-coached and their zone might make things difficult for Miami.
"Meanwhile Jason Kidd is one of the most underrated players in the playoffs. It was his D on Kobe that was so good, and against Oklahoma City, in fourth quarter, he played great D on Durant and forced him into game-changing turnovers. Now the question is, who does he match up with against Miami? And I don't see how Dallas can guard LeBron.
"The marketplace has definitely been on Dallas, while I give the edge to Miami. But I wouldn't play the series price unless it got to at least minus-159."
Kulesa says: "Dallas is a damn good team. If you remove the games in which Nowtizki or Tyson Chandler were out and just include the ones where they were both on the floor, Dallas has a 64-16 record and is 54-23-3 ATS. Based on a sample of 6,000 picks I can track through my site, nearly two-thirds of people are on Dallas.
"Personally, though, I give the series edge to Miami. But I don't know if I'll play it yet.
"You always hear 'Defense wins championships,' and I think that does apply in the NBA Finals. Miami is clearly the better defensive team, and has allowed opponents fewer points per game overall. But Miami is a tremendous 14 points per game better in the last five games. In the Finals the past seven years, blindly betting the team allowing fewer points per game would have you hitting 66 percent against the spread.
"If I had to do anything I would bet Miami, and if it was Miami -150 I would put a decent amount on them. But at minus-200, if you do this bet a hundred times you probably break even."
VegasRunner says: "The wiseguys did what they've done the entire postseason, and that's get ahead of the betting market because they know that recreational money will outweigh wiseguy money.
"In fact, the majority of all early plays were nothing more than an attempt to jump in front of the line move. And almost all true positions were late steam that came after the public forced the books to adjust, and ultimately offered betting value because the line was out of whack. Those late moves were the real positions that they kept.
"For the NBA Finals, the wiseguys steamed the Mavs to win the series … then also steamed them in Game 1 at plus-5 and on the money line.
"The problem for piggybackers is whether or not wiseguys will keep that position or if they were simply getting ahead of the market again. Even though the Heat are the public team, it's become obvious that the recreational bettors will be on the Mavs in Game 1. Those same rec bettors have backed the Mavs in the series, according to most of the books I know.
"That seems to be a case of hating on Miami since it's a star-studded type of team, and we know fans and bettors aren't shy about backing the underdog in championship-type games and series. We see it in every Super Bowl when the ML offers betting value on the favorite right before kickoff.
"Since the majority of recreational money gets bet on game day, we may still see more adjusting take place. Don't be surprised to see a buy-back if the series price keeps dropping."
The Sports Boss says: "Dallas has covered nearly 60 percent on the season, including 66 percent of road games. In addition they covered 13 of 20 road games this regular season versus playoff teams.
"ATS-wise, I think we will see some value on Dallas' side in this series. Specifically, I will be targeting the games in Miami as potential bigger bets on Dallas, as I see any number above Heat minus-4 as value on the Mavs. I had Vegas setting the initial line right at that minus-5 range, similar to what we saw Miami laying versus Chicago in the Eastern Conference finals. Straight up, this really pits two teams that are very similar -- more perimeter-based, outside-shooting, slashing types with underrated half-court defenses -- and the weaknesses of each team in their frontcourts are offset, for the most part.
"If -- and this is a big if -- Caron Butler can come back and give anything to the Mavs, I like them to avenge the Finals loss of five years ago, and for Dirk to finally get his long-awaited Larry O'Brien trophy."
