3 Tuesday w/analysis

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Sep 21, 2004
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Yesterday 4 1 0 +6.60 Units
Last 30 Days 35 47 1 -17.30 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 70 87 1 -17.24 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Houston +158 over CHICAGO
Jordan Lyles reached the Majors quickly after being selected in the supplemental first round of the '08 draft. He possesses a clean, smooth arm and repeats his delivery consistently, giving him plus command and outstanding control of a four-pitch arsenal. He pitches off his 88-94 mph fastball that he keeps low in the strike zone. His cutter can be tough to square up and his slider and changeup are above average offerings. While he doesn't project to a dominant strikeout artist, Lyles can register Ks with his secondary pitches. He prefers to hit his spots and force hitters to make contact early in the count. In 57 innings at Oklahoma City of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Lyles struck out 41 and walked 16 and posted an ERA of 3.20. He got off to a bit of a shaky start but he’s not allowed a single run in three of his last seven starts and he’s allowed just 3 ER’s in his last three starts. Carlos Zambrano is 5-2 but his ERA is 4.59 and his 40 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) confirms he’s not fooling many. He’s also dealing with a nagging neck injury and they weren’t even sure if he was going to go today. If Zambrano is off even slightly he’ll get whacked because he’s just not that good at 100%. Reasons not to buy into Carlos Zambrano: a 38%/43% GB/FB profile and an xERA of 4.71. It's hard to believe that Zambrano is just 29 years old, but we need look no further than the IP column to know that he is an old 29 and is in no way worthy of this tag. Play: Houston +158 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +111 over ATLANTA
The Padres are last in the NL West, but are the only team in their division with a winning road record. They came in here yesterday and took the opener in a very unfavorable pitching match-up and today they get a match-up that is very favorable. Mike Minor will make his third start of the year and in his first two starts the opposition hit .341 off him. In his career, the opposition has hit .319 off Minor. He has a WHIP of 2.00 and that’s because his control is a serious issue, as he’s walked six in 10 innings while striking out seven. Minor comes into this game with a career ERA of 5.86 and this year his ERA is 5.40 so nothing has really changed with him. The Padres should get some folks on base here and that’s going to cause the Braves some trouble. San Diego is the league’s number one base stealing threat, having stolen 51 bases as a team this year and Brian McCann has allowed 35 stolen bases this year, tied for most in the National League. Atlanta is the only National League squad with lower than a 50% success rate in stolen bases (9-for-23, or 39%). Matt Latos is 2-6 with an ERA of 4.08. He was 0-5 at one point and he was laboring but he’s knocked almost two full runs off his ERA and he’s getting stronger. In 53 frames he’s walked just 18 while striking out 50. His last start he dazzled the Cardinals by throwing eight full, walking none, allowing one run and striking out seven. Latos has a BAA of .241 and will face a struggling Braves offense. Play: San Diego +111 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO –1½ +126 over Cleveland
The Indians have come back down to earth in a big way with five losses in six games and over that span they’ve allowed an alarming 44 runs. They’ve also struck out an AL high 51 times over that span and that bodes well for us here, as they’ll face Brandon Morrow, a guy with one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors. Morrow has whiffed 48 batters in 39 frames and his xERA is 3.25, which is 1.13-runs lower than his actual ERA of 4.38. He has not allowed a single jack in his last six starts and his last start may have been his best of the year. The Jays offense has scored 33 times in the past three games and has scored nine or more in all three. These Jays hitters can’t get to the park early enough. They’ll face Mitch Talbot and they’ll also see a beaten up Indians pen at some point. Talbot pitched decently in first half last season then he went kaboom in 2H. Talbot started the year on the DL and joined the Indians rotation two starts ago. In his last start he was knocked out in the third inning after allowing 12 hits and eight runs to the Red Sox. One really has to question his confidence after that start and after coming off the DL after a rough 2H a season ago. It sure can’t ease his mind that the Tribe are laboring at the plate either. The Indians have scored 12 runs over their last six games and the bleeding both at the plate and on the hill is unlikely to stop here. Play: Toronto –1½ +126 (Risking 2 units).

**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
 

New member
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Jan 30, 2009
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Enjoy the insight and analysis Sherwood especially with the Padres and Braves.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Sep 21, 2004
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Thanks for the consistent contribution and the recurring format...it helps the Regular Reader to better compare and contrast your individual forecasts
 

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