Worst top-10 picks of last 10 years
Four Orioles flops help explain Baltimore's recent struggles
Kevin Goldstein
Baseball Prospectus
ESPN Insider
It's the week before the draft, so teams and fans are filled with optimism, and none more so than teams with highly coveted single-digit picks. That's where the elite talent comes from. Those are the guys who can potentially change the state of a franchise. Those are the players who often become a team's top prospect the moment they sign their name to a contract. That said, they don't always work out, and for a variety of reasons. So in the interest of raining on everybody's parade, especially those in Baltimore, here's a reminder of the 10 worst single-digit draft picks in the last decade.
1. Matt Bush, San Diego Padres, 2004 (No. 1 overall)
Now that Bush is trying to remake himself as a relief pitcher with the Rays, he's destined to become the first position player drafted No. 1 overall not to reach the big leagues as a position player since the Mets selected catcher Steve Chilcott with the top pick in 1966 instead of Reggie Jackson. Don't blame the Padres' baseball people at the time. Kevin Towers and his scouting department had their eyes on Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, as well as the top two college pitchers on the board, Justin Verlander of Old Dominion and Jered Weaver of Long Beach State. Ownership didn't want to pay big bucks, and when Bush, a local product, stepped in and said he would sign quickly, the wrong decision was made. Things went south quickly when he was arrested for his role in a fight outside a bar in Arizona before he even played a game. He hit just .219/.294/.276 in 223 injury-plagued games before moving to the mound, and scouts are not convinced that his plus-plus velocity will get him to the big leagues until he finds a second pitch and throws more strikes.
2. Wade Townsend, Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, 2004 and 2005 (No. 8 overall twice)
Double your pleasure, double your mistakes. Like Bush, the Orioles' mistake was produced by ownership intervention, when Peter Angelos insisted at the last moment that the team pick a college pitcher who would sign cheap and move through the system quickly. As it turned out, Baltimore missed on the first half of that equation, as the two sides never agreed to terms, allowing the Rays to burden a career destroyed by elbow and shoulder surgery by selecting him with the exact same pick one year later. He pitched in just 64 games as a pro over five years, finishing with a 5.58 ERA.
3. Colt Griffin, RHP, Kansas City Royals, 2001 (No. 9 overall)
In the spring of 2001, Griffin was the stuff of legend. Seemingly out of nowhere, in a small town in northeast Texas was a kid with a Roger Clemens body and a fastball that touched 100 mph. Despite not having much else on the positive side of the ledger with his scouting report, the velocity alone was enough to earn a $2.4 million bonus. He walked 87 batters, hit 16 more and uncorked 29 wild pitches over fewer than 100 innings in his full season debut, and things never got better, as his secondary offerings never developed, and he couldn't throw strikes with his fastball, even after dialing down the velocity. He hung them up at the age of 22 with more walks (278) than strikeouts (271) in 373 1/3 career innings.
4. Chris Smith, LHP, Baltimore Orioles, 2001 (No. 7 overall)
While Griffin was a bust, it was the selection of Smith that had more people scratching their heads on draft day 10 years ago. A position player at Florida State, Smith transferred to a small NAIA school in Tennessee so he could pitch, and while he showed some serious arm strength, he was short, wide-bodied and very raw. He walked 21 while striking out just four in 11 Appy League innings during the summer of 2002, and wouldn't pitch again until 2004 following shoulder surgery. One year later, he was out of organized baseball with a career ERA of 6.12 in just 49 appearances.
5. Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Detroit Tigers, 2003 (No. 3 overall)
There was certainly nothing wrong with the Sleeth selection at the time. The first pitcher selected in the 2003 draft, Sleeth was a 6-foot-5 classic power pitcher who had tied the NCAA record with 26 consecutive wins between his sophomore and junior seasons. He reached Double-A during his first full year with Detroit, but his stuff dropped off considerably at the end of the season, when it was announced he required Tommy John surgery. While such a procedure is often seen as just a temporary setback by many, the rate of recovery is nowhere near 100 percent, and Sleeth was never the same. After putting up eight-plus ERAs in both 2006 and 2007, he retired, and now owns a successful barbershop franchise in Florida.
6. Billy Rowell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles, 2006 (No. 9 overall)
In a weak year for high school hitters, Rowell was the first such player to be drafted in 2006, as the 6-5 prep star from New Jersey had arguably the best raw power available. He quickly got bigger, got slower and was always bad defensively, but most importantly, he just never developed as a hitter. He carries a career batting line of .261/.330/.390 into Wednesday's action while hitting .225 without a home run in his first taste of Double-A after three seasons in the Carolina League. And yet, the most painful thing about the Rowell selection is not his failed career, but rather who the Orioles did not select; with the very next pick, the San Francisco Giants took a little right-hander with electric stuff from the University of Washington named Tim Lincecum.
7. Kyle Skipworth, C, Florida Marlins, 2008 (6th overall)
By the latter part of the decade, most teams were actively sticking their tongues out at the commissioner's bonus recommendations, but somehow, that memo never got to the Marlins, whose thrifty ways have always extended to the draft. Because the team is rarely outright bad, this is their only single-digit pick since 2000, when they selected Adrian Gonzalez at No. 1, and they just plain dropped the ball with Skipworth, who was seen as more of an early teen talent than this high a selection. He signed quickly and without any over-slot shenanigans, but that's about the only positive thing to say about his career. While there was some concern about his defense, scouts certainly thought he would hit coming out of high school, and he's done anything but, sporting a career batting average of .219 with 320 strikeouts in 259 games, including a .176 mark this season in his first exposure to Double-A pitching.
8. Matt Hobgood, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, 2009 (5th overall)
Depressed yet, Baltimore fans? The Orioles insisted that Hobgood was the guy they wanted all along at No. 5 two years ago, but that ruse was quickly exposed when he became the rare high pick to sign for a figure actually below the recommended slot. Seen as more of a mid-to-late-first-round talent heading into the draft, Hobgood's stuff has never been anywhere close to his high school days, and after rarely getting out of the 80s with his fastball and putting up a 4.40 ERA at low Class A Delmarva in 2010 with just 59 strikeouts in 94 innings, he suffered a shoulder injury this spring that he is still recovering from. This might be a premature call, but nothing is moving in the right direction.
9. Casey Weathers, RHP, Colorado Rockies, 2007 (8th overall)
Teams sometimes go the college reliever route in the first round, hoping to find an arm that can move quickly, but it's rarely a gambit used with such a high pick. The 2007 draft was not an especially strong one, which may have tipped the Rockies' decision to draft Weathers, but four years later, they are still waiting for him to reach the majors. Weathers ended up a pitcher by accident after he and a junior college teammate took to the mound to see which outfielder could throw harder. Weathers not only won the contest, but touched the mid-90s and a closer was born. After dominating at Vanderbilt, Weathers was poised to contend for a roster spot in 2009 before being sidelined by Tommy John surgery. He still throws hard, but what was once already below-average control is now a real problem, as he's walked 35 over 44 2/3 innings since his return to go along with a 4.63 ERA.
10. Chris Lubanski, OF, Kansas City Royals, 2003 (5th overall)
Still one of the more baffling picks in recent memory, Lubanski was the national player of the year at Kennedy-Kendrick High School in Pennsylvania, and a perfectly legitimate selection by the Royals at the time, but he quickly turned into a completely different player. As an amateur, he was a plus-plus runner with a bit of pop that reminded some of former 1992 Royals first-round pick Johnny Damon, but he quickly transformed in unexpected ways, as his speed was gone by the time he was 21, turning him into a bulky corner outfielder without enough bat to get to the big leagues. Released by the Royals after the 2009 season, he hit .293 with 17 home runs for the Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas last year, but couldn't find an offer for 2011 and is now with the Chico Outlaws in the independent North American League.
Four Orioles flops help explain Baltimore's recent struggles
Kevin Goldstein
Baseball Prospectus
ESPN Insider
It's the week before the draft, so teams and fans are filled with optimism, and none more so than teams with highly coveted single-digit picks. That's where the elite talent comes from. Those are the guys who can potentially change the state of a franchise. Those are the players who often become a team's top prospect the moment they sign their name to a contract. That said, they don't always work out, and for a variety of reasons. So in the interest of raining on everybody's parade, especially those in Baltimore, here's a reminder of the 10 worst single-digit draft picks in the last decade.
1. Matt Bush, San Diego Padres, 2004 (No. 1 overall)
Now that Bush is trying to remake himself as a relief pitcher with the Rays, he's destined to become the first position player drafted No. 1 overall not to reach the big leagues as a position player since the Mets selected catcher Steve Chilcott with the top pick in 1966 instead of Reggie Jackson. Don't blame the Padres' baseball people at the time. Kevin Towers and his scouting department had their eyes on Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, as well as the top two college pitchers on the board, Justin Verlander of Old Dominion and Jered Weaver of Long Beach State. Ownership didn't want to pay big bucks, and when Bush, a local product, stepped in and said he would sign quickly, the wrong decision was made. Things went south quickly when he was arrested for his role in a fight outside a bar in Arizona before he even played a game. He hit just .219/.294/.276 in 223 injury-plagued games before moving to the mound, and scouts are not convinced that his plus-plus velocity will get him to the big leagues until he finds a second pitch and throws more strikes.
2. Wade Townsend, Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, 2004 and 2005 (No. 8 overall twice)
Double your pleasure, double your mistakes. Like Bush, the Orioles' mistake was produced by ownership intervention, when Peter Angelos insisted at the last moment that the team pick a college pitcher who would sign cheap and move through the system quickly. As it turned out, Baltimore missed on the first half of that equation, as the two sides never agreed to terms, allowing the Rays to burden a career destroyed by elbow and shoulder surgery by selecting him with the exact same pick one year later. He pitched in just 64 games as a pro over five years, finishing with a 5.58 ERA.
3. Colt Griffin, RHP, Kansas City Royals, 2001 (No. 9 overall)
In the spring of 2001, Griffin was the stuff of legend. Seemingly out of nowhere, in a small town in northeast Texas was a kid with a Roger Clemens body and a fastball that touched 100 mph. Despite not having much else on the positive side of the ledger with his scouting report, the velocity alone was enough to earn a $2.4 million bonus. He walked 87 batters, hit 16 more and uncorked 29 wild pitches over fewer than 100 innings in his full season debut, and things never got better, as his secondary offerings never developed, and he couldn't throw strikes with his fastball, even after dialing down the velocity. He hung them up at the age of 22 with more walks (278) than strikeouts (271) in 373 1/3 career innings.
4. Chris Smith, LHP, Baltimore Orioles, 2001 (No. 7 overall)
While Griffin was a bust, it was the selection of Smith that had more people scratching their heads on draft day 10 years ago. A position player at Florida State, Smith transferred to a small NAIA school in Tennessee so he could pitch, and while he showed some serious arm strength, he was short, wide-bodied and very raw. He walked 21 while striking out just four in 11 Appy League innings during the summer of 2002, and wouldn't pitch again until 2004 following shoulder surgery. One year later, he was out of organized baseball with a career ERA of 6.12 in just 49 appearances.
5. Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Detroit Tigers, 2003 (No. 3 overall)
There was certainly nothing wrong with the Sleeth selection at the time. The first pitcher selected in the 2003 draft, Sleeth was a 6-foot-5 classic power pitcher who had tied the NCAA record with 26 consecutive wins between his sophomore and junior seasons. He reached Double-A during his first full year with Detroit, but his stuff dropped off considerably at the end of the season, when it was announced he required Tommy John surgery. While such a procedure is often seen as just a temporary setback by many, the rate of recovery is nowhere near 100 percent, and Sleeth was never the same. After putting up eight-plus ERAs in both 2006 and 2007, he retired, and now owns a successful barbershop franchise in Florida.
6. Billy Rowell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles, 2006 (No. 9 overall)
In a weak year for high school hitters, Rowell was the first such player to be drafted in 2006, as the 6-5 prep star from New Jersey had arguably the best raw power available. He quickly got bigger, got slower and was always bad defensively, but most importantly, he just never developed as a hitter. He carries a career batting line of .261/.330/.390 into Wednesday's action while hitting .225 without a home run in his first taste of Double-A after three seasons in the Carolina League. And yet, the most painful thing about the Rowell selection is not his failed career, but rather who the Orioles did not select; with the very next pick, the San Francisco Giants took a little right-hander with electric stuff from the University of Washington named Tim Lincecum.
7. Kyle Skipworth, C, Florida Marlins, 2008 (6th overall)
By the latter part of the decade, most teams were actively sticking their tongues out at the commissioner's bonus recommendations, but somehow, that memo never got to the Marlins, whose thrifty ways have always extended to the draft. Because the team is rarely outright bad, this is their only single-digit pick since 2000, when they selected Adrian Gonzalez at No. 1, and they just plain dropped the ball with Skipworth, who was seen as more of an early teen talent than this high a selection. He signed quickly and without any over-slot shenanigans, but that's about the only positive thing to say about his career. While there was some concern about his defense, scouts certainly thought he would hit coming out of high school, and he's done anything but, sporting a career batting average of .219 with 320 strikeouts in 259 games, including a .176 mark this season in his first exposure to Double-A pitching.
8. Matt Hobgood, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, 2009 (5th overall)
Depressed yet, Baltimore fans? The Orioles insisted that Hobgood was the guy they wanted all along at No. 5 two years ago, but that ruse was quickly exposed when he became the rare high pick to sign for a figure actually below the recommended slot. Seen as more of a mid-to-late-first-round talent heading into the draft, Hobgood's stuff has never been anywhere close to his high school days, and after rarely getting out of the 80s with his fastball and putting up a 4.40 ERA at low Class A Delmarva in 2010 with just 59 strikeouts in 94 innings, he suffered a shoulder injury this spring that he is still recovering from. This might be a premature call, but nothing is moving in the right direction.
9. Casey Weathers, RHP, Colorado Rockies, 2007 (8th overall)
Teams sometimes go the college reliever route in the first round, hoping to find an arm that can move quickly, but it's rarely a gambit used with such a high pick. The 2007 draft was not an especially strong one, which may have tipped the Rockies' decision to draft Weathers, but four years later, they are still waiting for him to reach the majors. Weathers ended up a pitcher by accident after he and a junior college teammate took to the mound to see which outfielder could throw harder. Weathers not only won the contest, but touched the mid-90s and a closer was born. After dominating at Vanderbilt, Weathers was poised to contend for a roster spot in 2009 before being sidelined by Tommy John surgery. He still throws hard, but what was once already below-average control is now a real problem, as he's walked 35 over 44 2/3 innings since his return to go along with a 4.63 ERA.
10. Chris Lubanski, OF, Kansas City Royals, 2003 (5th overall)
Still one of the more baffling picks in recent memory, Lubanski was the national player of the year at Kennedy-Kendrick High School in Pennsylvania, and a perfectly legitimate selection by the Royals at the time, but he quickly turned into a completely different player. As an amateur, he was a plus-plus runner with a bit of pop that reminded some of former 1992 Royals first-round pick Johnny Damon, but he quickly transformed in unexpected ways, as his speed was gone by the time he was 21, turning him into a bulky corner outfielder without enough bat to get to the big leagues. Released by the Royals after the 2009 season, he hit .293 with 17 home runs for the Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas last year, but couldn't find an offer for 2011 and is now with the Chico Outlaws in the independent North American League.
