Yesterday 1 1 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 38 45 1 -5.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 73 89 1 -13.86 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +115 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings)
Was that really Zach Duke that came off the DL to throw seven scoreless innings and hit a jack in the same game? The same Zach Duke that the Pirates wanted no more part of? Duke was even fighting for a job out of spring training before he took a ball off his hand. On March 7th, he surrendered three homers in three innings in a spring game and had overall to that point had allowed 16 hits in seven innings and had a spring ERA of 9.00 before being injured five days later. Duke has a career BA of .304. Current Nats batters are hitting .365 against him. In 160 games started in his career, he’s won 46 times so winning two in a row is not in his M.O. Duke is coming off a disastrous 2010 (5.72 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). He struggled with the HR-ball (1.4 hr/9) last season, and is unlikely to be aided by the move from Pittsburgh to Arizona's hitter-friendly park. The move to a more challenging venue combined with Duke's marginal skills mark him as a pitcher to avoid. Jordan Zimmerman has thrown at least six innings or more in five straight starts and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those starts. In fact, he’s allowed two runs or less in seven of his 10 starts. He has outstanding control (13 BB in 50 IP) and most of the D-Back hitters have never faced him before. He has a BA of .248, a WHIP of 1.16, a good strikeout rate and an ERA of 3.88. That ERA comes with a low strand rate of 64%. When that normalizes, his ERA will drop a little more. The D-Backs have had a lot of late inning magic recently. And Since this one is based on Zimmerman vs Duke and because Zimmerman rarely pitches into the seventh inning and because the Nats bullpen is not good, the play here is Zimmerman in the game’s first half. Play: Washington +115 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY +108 over SEATTLE
The M’s are hot with 12 wins in 16 games but they’ve had a rather favorable schedule over that stretch that saw them play the Twins five times and series with San Diego, Baltimore and the Angels. They did take two of three from the Yanks but in the two wins they beat Ivan Nova and A.J. Burnett and when they faced C.C. Sabathia they lost 7-1. Felix Hernandez is not good he’s great. At age 24, he's proven to be durable. A three-year run of 200+ with no signs of fatigue and in fact, his second half in 2010 (3.08 xERA, 118 BPV) was better than his first. He's a strikeout machine--at least 175 Ks in each of the past five seasons; 200+ Ks in the past two seasons. Batters who don't strike out against him make weak contact--GB% has inched upward, while LD% has declined, over the past two seasons. One has to squint to come up with cautions about Hernandez. The mileage on his arm continues to be an easy target, but no skills metrics back up that theory. Expecting another sub-3.00 ERA is asking a lot, but he's repeated it once already. There are no sure things in the world of pitchers--but Hernandez provides as much high-level certainty as any. The problem is he pitches for a team that could lose 2-1 or even 1-0. Only the Twins in the AL have scored fewer runs and no team in entire league has less than Seattle’s 29 bombs. The Mariners team BA is .229, which is also last in the league. James Shields is no fluke. Last season it seemed like every GB missed a glove, and every FB cleared the wall. We can't state this strongly enough that his skills are as good as anyone. Shields’ has whiffed 81 in 85 frames while walking just 18. He has a 2.15 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He not only has the physical ability to dominate but he has the mental makeup too. He’s one of the most easy-going and laid back guys in the majors with an intense passion to compete. Oh yeah, and he pitches for a team that can score runs and that is 15-10 on the road. Current Rays are hitting .277 off King Felix in 83 combined AB’s and they might need only two here to get us to the cashier’s booth. Play: Tampa Bay +108 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 38 45 1 -5.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 73 89 1 -13.86 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +115 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings)
Was that really Zach Duke that came off the DL to throw seven scoreless innings and hit a jack in the same game? The same Zach Duke that the Pirates wanted no more part of? Duke was even fighting for a job out of spring training before he took a ball off his hand. On March 7th, he surrendered three homers in three innings in a spring game and had overall to that point had allowed 16 hits in seven innings and had a spring ERA of 9.00 before being injured five days later. Duke has a career BA of .304. Current Nats batters are hitting .365 against him. In 160 games started in his career, he’s won 46 times so winning two in a row is not in his M.O. Duke is coming off a disastrous 2010 (5.72 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). He struggled with the HR-ball (1.4 hr/9) last season, and is unlikely to be aided by the move from Pittsburgh to Arizona's hitter-friendly park. The move to a more challenging venue combined with Duke's marginal skills mark him as a pitcher to avoid. Jordan Zimmerman has thrown at least six innings or more in five straight starts and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those starts. In fact, he’s allowed two runs or less in seven of his 10 starts. He has outstanding control (13 BB in 50 IP) and most of the D-Back hitters have never faced him before. He has a BA of .248, a WHIP of 1.16, a good strikeout rate and an ERA of 3.88. That ERA comes with a low strand rate of 64%. When that normalizes, his ERA will drop a little more. The D-Backs have had a lot of late inning magic recently. And Since this one is based on Zimmerman vs Duke and because Zimmerman rarely pitches into the seventh inning and because the Nats bullpen is not good, the play here is Zimmerman in the game’s first half. Play: Washington +115 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY +108 over SEATTLE
The M’s are hot with 12 wins in 16 games but they’ve had a rather favorable schedule over that stretch that saw them play the Twins five times and series with San Diego, Baltimore and the Angels. They did take two of three from the Yanks but in the two wins they beat Ivan Nova and A.J. Burnett and when they faced C.C. Sabathia they lost 7-1. Felix Hernandez is not good he’s great. At age 24, he's proven to be durable. A three-year run of 200+ with no signs of fatigue and in fact, his second half in 2010 (3.08 xERA, 118 BPV) was better than his first. He's a strikeout machine--at least 175 Ks in each of the past five seasons; 200+ Ks in the past two seasons. Batters who don't strike out against him make weak contact--GB% has inched upward, while LD% has declined, over the past two seasons. One has to squint to come up with cautions about Hernandez. The mileage on his arm continues to be an easy target, but no skills metrics back up that theory. Expecting another sub-3.00 ERA is asking a lot, but he's repeated it once already. There are no sure things in the world of pitchers--but Hernandez provides as much high-level certainty as any. The problem is he pitches for a team that could lose 2-1 or even 1-0. Only the Twins in the AL have scored fewer runs and no team in entire league has less than Seattle’s 29 bombs. The Mariners team BA is .229, which is also last in the league. James Shields is no fluke. Last season it seemed like every GB missed a glove, and every FB cleared the wall. We can't state this strongly enough that his skills are as good as anyone. Shields’ has whiffed 81 in 85 frames while walking just 18. He has a 2.15 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He not only has the physical ability to dominate but he has the mental makeup too. He’s one of the most easy-going and laid back guys in the majors with an intense passion to compete. Oh yeah, and he pitches for a team that can score runs and that is 15-10 on the road. Current Rays are hitting .277 off King Felix in 83 combined AB’s and they might need only two here to get us to the cashier’s booth. Play: Tampa Bay +108 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
