Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.30 Units
Last 30 Days 38 44 1 -3.62 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 74 90 1 -13.56 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Toronto +116 over BALTIMORE
The O’s return home from a 1-5 road trip a little worse for the wear after hitting .212 and scoring 15 runs. Four of those runs came in one inning. There’s almost a two run gap between Zach Britton’s ERA (2.93) and xERA (4.56) and after a whole lot of good fortune, Britton’s flaws are being exposed. In his last two starts against K.C and at Oakland, Britton allowed 19 hits and nine earned runs in just 11.2 innings. He has a low strikeout rate, questionable command, a strand rate of 79% and that’s why he’s not nearly as good as his surface stats suggest. The league has seen him for a third of a season, the video has been studied and now his confidence might be a little shaky too. The Jays come into this one batting .332 over its past six games. They’ve scored an eye-opening nine runs or more in four of their past five games. Carlos Villanueva has struck out 30 batters in 34 frames while walking 12. He’s pitched mostly in relief this year but has now started two games in a row with one great start and one not so great start. He has four good pitches that he’ll use at any time in the count. He has a WHIP of 0.93 and an ERA of 2.62 and while he’s not as good as those numbers suggest, he’s definitely as serviceable as Britton. That leaves the Jays offense and bullpen v the O’s offense and bullpen and that is a complete mismatch and it’s not in the O’s favor. Play: Toronto +116 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +129 over CHICAGO
Very nice that the South Side went into Boston and swept the Red Sox. They have Boston’s number for some odd reason just like the Tigers have the White Sox number. Detroit has won 11 of the past 12 games against Chicago and they’ll face Mark Buehrle here. Buehrle is coming off a 4-2 loss to the red-hot Jays but what that pitching line doesn’t tell you is that every ball wasn’t just hit, it was roped and a lot of them just hit guys in the glove. He still surrendered nine hits and three runs in seven frames but threw 120 pitches and the results were extremely flattering. Buehrle’s skills are marginal at best. He has 35 k’s in 74 innings and a xERA of 5.08. His groundball rate is 40% but even that is regressing, as it’s 35% over the last month. In 2010, Buehrle was shaky, but should have been worse. Control still elite, but strikeout rate is dragging and he’s now in his third year trend of xERA and skills erosion. Current Tigers have seen Buehrle a ton, 277 times to be exact and have a BA of .277 against him. Take away Miguel Cabrera’s 2-20 and that number goes way up. Buehrle is ripe to get whacked and that’s all there is to it. Andrew Oliver made his first start of the year last week vs Red Sox. He went six full and gave up three runs and takes a step down in class with his first start of the year out of the way. Oliver has a good 90-95 mph fastball, a hard slurvy curveball, potentially plus slider, and a decent change-up. His power stuff can be particularly tough on LH batters who scored only 2 runs in 14 IP at Triple-A. Oliver struggles with location and command, which gets him in trouble. In 2010 he walked 63 batters in 152.1 IP between the majors and minors and this year he's walked 20 in 51.2 IP at Toledo. Oliver has big-time potential. If he can throw strikes consistently and keep the ball down in the strike zone, he has the stuff to be a solid starter. It’s a gamble to play a pitcher that struggles with command but Oliver (with his great arm) and the Tigers are a worthy gamble against a team they own and against a pitcher that is likely to give up plenty. Play: Detroit +129 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +113 over SAN DIEGO
The Astros have won four in a row and five straight on the road. The Padres are in last place and have lost six of seven at Petco and are 9-21 overall at home. It gets better. The Astros have outscored opponents 32-17 during their five-game winning streak away from home, batting .323 with nine homers in those contests. Conversely, the Padres are hitting .199 at home while averaging 2.3 runs on the season. They’ve been even worse during a 2-7 stretch, batting .181 and totaling 15 runs in the nine games. Advantage Astros. Now to the pitchers. J.A. Happ v Dustin Moseley. Moseley has a 3.18 ERA after 11 starts but that’s nothing but a mirage. Low strikeout rate pitchers can survive if they have pinpoint control; he doesn't, and xERA (4.85) shows the result. This stiff has 20 walks and 29 k’s in 65 frames. His low ERA has been driven by an unsustainable 80% strand rate. Fact is, Moseley’s skills are horrible. J.A. Happ has more to prove. He generated plenty of doubt with a sub-3.00 ERA in his rookie season in Philadelphia. After missing the first half of 2010 with a forearm strain and getting traded to Houston, he delivered another solid half-season. Are we convinced he's for real? Not really. With a career 3.37 ERA in almost 300 IP, Happ would seem to have answered any doubters. But his skills still raise concern. He walks too many and has a heavily tilted fly-ball profile. However, he gets strikeouts (52 in 64 IP) and shuts down LHers and that’s more than we can say about Moseley. Advantage Astros. Play: Houston +113 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +119 over CINCINNATI
Much prefer the Reds against lefties than righties and besides that, Cinci is playing with fire just about every game it seems. They keep falling behind by multiple runs and they keep rallying to win. That’s not normal and those comeback attempts with success cannot last over an extended period of time. Prior to losing to Colorado and Ubaldo Jiminez, 3-0, the Dodgers had won three in a row and scored seven or more runs in all three games. That bodes well for them here, as they absolutey thrive at Great American. In six games here last year, the Dodgers scored 47 times and not much has changed in terms of their line-up. Bronson Arroyo is 1-4 at Great American with a 5.79 ERA and it’s no mystery as to why. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher in an extreme hitter’s park and that is a bad marriage. Arroyo has six strikeouts over his last three starts and over that stretch he’s given up 26 hits in 12.2 frames. Overall, Arroyo has surrendered 14 bombs in 62 frames to go along with a BAA of .309. In the month of May, Arroyo’s ERA was 7.64 with a BAA of .336. Hiroki Kuroda’s BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of write-ups) is trending in the right direction, headlined by another step up in dominance (strikeout rate). Very consistent, with triple-digit BPV in every month but May over the past two years. With high GB rate and excellent control, Kuroda is more appealing than Arroyo and it's not close. Play: Los Angeles +119 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 38 44 1 -3.62 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 74 90 1 -13.56 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Toronto +116 over BALTIMORE
The O’s return home from a 1-5 road trip a little worse for the wear after hitting .212 and scoring 15 runs. Four of those runs came in one inning. There’s almost a two run gap between Zach Britton’s ERA (2.93) and xERA (4.56) and after a whole lot of good fortune, Britton’s flaws are being exposed. In his last two starts against K.C and at Oakland, Britton allowed 19 hits and nine earned runs in just 11.2 innings. He has a low strikeout rate, questionable command, a strand rate of 79% and that’s why he’s not nearly as good as his surface stats suggest. The league has seen him for a third of a season, the video has been studied and now his confidence might be a little shaky too. The Jays come into this one batting .332 over its past six games. They’ve scored an eye-opening nine runs or more in four of their past five games. Carlos Villanueva has struck out 30 batters in 34 frames while walking 12. He’s pitched mostly in relief this year but has now started two games in a row with one great start and one not so great start. He has four good pitches that he’ll use at any time in the count. He has a WHIP of 0.93 and an ERA of 2.62 and while he’s not as good as those numbers suggest, he’s definitely as serviceable as Britton. That leaves the Jays offense and bullpen v the O’s offense and bullpen and that is a complete mismatch and it’s not in the O’s favor. Play: Toronto +116 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +129 over CHICAGO
Very nice that the South Side went into Boston and swept the Red Sox. They have Boston’s number for some odd reason just like the Tigers have the White Sox number. Detroit has won 11 of the past 12 games against Chicago and they’ll face Mark Buehrle here. Buehrle is coming off a 4-2 loss to the red-hot Jays but what that pitching line doesn’t tell you is that every ball wasn’t just hit, it was roped and a lot of them just hit guys in the glove. He still surrendered nine hits and three runs in seven frames but threw 120 pitches and the results were extremely flattering. Buehrle’s skills are marginal at best. He has 35 k’s in 74 innings and a xERA of 5.08. His groundball rate is 40% but even that is regressing, as it’s 35% over the last month. In 2010, Buehrle was shaky, but should have been worse. Control still elite, but strikeout rate is dragging and he’s now in his third year trend of xERA and skills erosion. Current Tigers have seen Buehrle a ton, 277 times to be exact and have a BA of .277 against him. Take away Miguel Cabrera’s 2-20 and that number goes way up. Buehrle is ripe to get whacked and that’s all there is to it. Andrew Oliver made his first start of the year last week vs Red Sox. He went six full and gave up three runs and takes a step down in class with his first start of the year out of the way. Oliver has a good 90-95 mph fastball, a hard slurvy curveball, potentially plus slider, and a decent change-up. His power stuff can be particularly tough on LH batters who scored only 2 runs in 14 IP at Triple-A. Oliver struggles with location and command, which gets him in trouble. In 2010 he walked 63 batters in 152.1 IP between the majors and minors and this year he's walked 20 in 51.2 IP at Toledo. Oliver has big-time potential. If he can throw strikes consistently and keep the ball down in the strike zone, he has the stuff to be a solid starter. It’s a gamble to play a pitcher that struggles with command but Oliver (with his great arm) and the Tigers are a worthy gamble against a team they own and against a pitcher that is likely to give up plenty. Play: Detroit +129 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +113 over SAN DIEGO
The Astros have won four in a row and five straight on the road. The Padres are in last place and have lost six of seven at Petco and are 9-21 overall at home. It gets better. The Astros have outscored opponents 32-17 during their five-game winning streak away from home, batting .323 with nine homers in those contests. Conversely, the Padres are hitting .199 at home while averaging 2.3 runs on the season. They’ve been even worse during a 2-7 stretch, batting .181 and totaling 15 runs in the nine games. Advantage Astros. Now to the pitchers. J.A. Happ v Dustin Moseley. Moseley has a 3.18 ERA after 11 starts but that’s nothing but a mirage. Low strikeout rate pitchers can survive if they have pinpoint control; he doesn't, and xERA (4.85) shows the result. This stiff has 20 walks and 29 k’s in 65 frames. His low ERA has been driven by an unsustainable 80% strand rate. Fact is, Moseley’s skills are horrible. J.A. Happ has more to prove. He generated plenty of doubt with a sub-3.00 ERA in his rookie season in Philadelphia. After missing the first half of 2010 with a forearm strain and getting traded to Houston, he delivered another solid half-season. Are we convinced he's for real? Not really. With a career 3.37 ERA in almost 300 IP, Happ would seem to have answered any doubters. But his skills still raise concern. He walks too many and has a heavily tilted fly-ball profile. However, he gets strikeouts (52 in 64 IP) and shuts down LHers and that’s more than we can say about Moseley. Advantage Astros. Play: Houston +113 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +119 over CINCINNATI
Much prefer the Reds against lefties than righties and besides that, Cinci is playing with fire just about every game it seems. They keep falling behind by multiple runs and they keep rallying to win. That’s not normal and those comeback attempts with success cannot last over an extended period of time. Prior to losing to Colorado and Ubaldo Jiminez, 3-0, the Dodgers had won three in a row and scored seven or more runs in all three games. That bodes well for them here, as they absolutey thrive at Great American. In six games here last year, the Dodgers scored 47 times and not much has changed in terms of their line-up. Bronson Arroyo is 1-4 at Great American with a 5.79 ERA and it’s no mystery as to why. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher in an extreme hitter’s park and that is a bad marriage. Arroyo has six strikeouts over his last three starts and over that stretch he’s given up 26 hits in 12.2 frames. Overall, Arroyo has surrendered 14 bombs in 62 frames to go along with a BAA of .309. In the month of May, Arroyo’s ERA was 7.64 with a BAA of .336. Hiroki Kuroda’s BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of write-ups) is trending in the right direction, headlined by another step up in dominance (strikeout rate). Very consistent, with triple-digit BPV in every month but May over the past two years. With high GB rate and excellent control, Kuroda is more appealing than Arroyo and it's not close. Play: Los Angeles +119 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
